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24 Feb 2023 |
and in the longer term to use AI to help us come up with new ideas for better alignment techniques
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24 Feb 2023 |
AGI has the potential to give everyone incredible new capabilities; we can imagine a world where all of us have access to help with almost…
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24 Feb 2023 |
we think it’s important that society agree on extremely wide bounds of how AI can be used, but that within those bounds, individual users…
Not checkable · 24 Feb 2023 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Feb 2023 |
OpenAI has a cap on the returns its shareholders can earn.
Factual · 24 Feb 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
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24 Feb 2023 |
Our best safety work has come from working with our most capable models.
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24 Feb 2023 |
We believe we have to continuously learn and adapt by deploying less powerful versions of the technology in order to minimize “one shot to…
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24 Feb 2023 |
Our plan in the shorter term is to use AI to help humans evaluate the outputs of more complex models and monitor complex systems, and in…
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24 Feb 2023 |
Many of us think the safest quadrant in this two-by-two matrix is short timelines and slow takeoff speeds
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24 Feb 2023 |
We believe in empowering individuals to make their own decisions and the inherent power of diversity of ideas.
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24 Feb 2023 |
We want AGI to empower humanity to maximally flourish in the universe.
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24 Feb 2023 |
Generally speaking, we think more usage of AI in the world will lead to good, and want to promote it (by putting models in our API…
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24 Feb 2023 |
Many of us think the safest quadrant in this two-by-two matrix is short timelines and slow takeoff speeds; shorter timelines seem more…
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24 Feb 2023 |
It also allows for society and AI to co-evolve, and for people collectively to figure out what they want while the stakes are relatively…
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24 Feb 2023 |
The “default setting” of our products will likely be quite constrained, but we plan to make it easy for users to change the behavior of the…
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24 Feb 2023 |
shorter timelines seem more amenable to coordination and more likely to lead to a slower takeoff due to less of a compute overhang
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24 Feb 2023 |
we are working towards creating increasingly aligned and steerable models.
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24 Feb 2023 |
We want the benefits of, access to, and governance of AGI to be widely and fairly shared.
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24 Feb 2023 |
We don’t expect the future to be an unqualified utopia
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24 Feb 2023 |
Our decisions will require much more caution than society usually applies to new technologies, and more caution than many users would like.
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24 Feb 2023 |
a slower takeoff gives us more time to figure out empirically how to solve the safety problem and how to adapt.
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24 Feb 2023 |
We believe this is the best way to carefully steward AGI into existence—a gradual transition to a world with AGI is better than a sudden…
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24 Feb 2023 |
Successfully transitioning to a world with superintelligence is perhaps the most important—and hopeful, and scary—project in human history.
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24 Feb 2023 |
We want to successfully navigate massive risks.
Not checkable · 24 Feb 2023 |
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| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Feb 2023 |
OpenAI is governed by a nonprofit that can override for-profit interests.
Factual · 24 Feb 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
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Not checkable |
30 Sep 2021 |
This is the most interesting approach I've seen to the problem of the cost of drug development: fix the clinical trials.
Not checkable · 30 Sep 2021 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
30 Sep 2021 |
Sam Altman invested in TrialSpark, announced on 2021-09-30.
Factual · 30 Sep 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
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Not checkable |
26 Sep 2021 |
I’ve learned it’s a bad use of time to try to debate this, and a much better use of time to just find and work with them.
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26 Sep 2021 |
This from @ezraklein last week is great:
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26 Sep 2021 |
Investors complain everyone wants to be an investor and there aren't enough founders to invest in
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26 Sep 2021 |
Where are the truly bold ideas? What is actually working relative to its costs?
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26 Sep 2021 |
I'm pretty disappointed in the Democrats.
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26 Sep 2021 |
Feels like every fourth bay area tech person I talk to is moving to New York.
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26 Sep 2021 |
The results have a pesky way of speaking for themselves.
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26 Sep 2021 |
The best thing I can say about them is they're better than the Republicans.
Not checkable · 26 Sep 2021 |
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI published a paper on summarization on 2021-09-23, and an instruction-following model produced a summary of its first part.
Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
Science and research methods |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI's book-summarizing system combines reinforcement learning from human feedback and recursive task decomposition.
Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI created a system that can generate reasonable summaries of entire books.
Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
AI capabilities |
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18 Sep 2021 |
Sets a terrible precedent to do this ex post facto, even if you strongly support the underlying idea.
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18 Sep 2021 |
Plenty I like in the tax proposal, but I’m quite concerned by the proposal to make a retroactive change to the treatment of retirement…
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9 Sep 2021 |
Feels slightly surreal to watch bad cryptocurrency policy drive innovation out of the US.
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9 Sep 2021 |
Technology prediction for the 2020s:
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9 Sep 2021 |
For all of our flaws, I really do think of the US as the best country in the world for building the future.
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9 Sep 2021 |
Hope this is not a sign of a trend.
Not checkable · 9 Sep 2021 |
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| Unresolvable |
Factual |
8 Sep 2021 |
The text linked in Sam Altman's 2021-09-08 post was written by GPT-3.
Factual · 8 Sep 2021 |
AI capabilities |
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5 Sep 2021 |
If status is the last thing left after AGI, NFTs are entirely unsurprising.
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2 Sep 2021 |
The tax system in California has been broken for some time, and in a world of increasing remote work, is going to become even more broken.
Not checkable · 2 Sep 2021 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Aug 2021 |
OpenAI launched Codex, an API that uses AI to write code from natural language, on 2021-08-10.
Factual · 10 Aug 2021 |
AI capabilities |
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Not checkable |
10 Aug 2021 |
Starting in two minutes, come see OpenAI's latest progress:
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2 Aug 2021 |
The best way to ensure I don't read something in a contract is to put it in capital bold letters.
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27 Jul 2021 |
Find the crux and focus.
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25 Jul 2021 |
if it's really difficult to decide between two options, they are approximately equally good.
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25 Jul 2021 |
The more agonizingly difficult a decision is, the less it matters.
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24 Jul 2021 |
Record-high number of Americans thriving; all the rest on Twitter.
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21 Jul 2021 |
I never feel sure something will work, but any study of history suggests it's even harder to be certain in the other direction.
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21 Jul 2021 |
The thing I don't understand about haters is how they can be so certain something is a bad idea, or won't lead somewhere worthwhile.
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17 Jul 2021 |
Right now feels like February 2020, when very few people were taking this thing called coronavirus seriously, and lockdowns seemed…
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2021 |
And we’d need to set it up in a way that does not exacerbate short-term thinking or favor unsustainable growth.
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2021 |
for example, taxing capital and labor at the same rates.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
If the US does not take a radical step toward a fair, inclusive system, it will not be the leading country in the world for much longer.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
By default, automation will concentrate wealth and power in a tiny number of hands.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
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Not checkable |
2021 |
We’d also need to figure out rules about transferability and borrowing against this equity.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
2021 |
America has repeatedly found ways to challenge concentration of wealth and power.
Factual · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
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Not checkable |
2021 |
This would harm all Americans more than most realize.
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2021 |
and give more people a fair shot at achieving the life they want.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Altman said he thinks a model similar to the one used by companies can work for the US as well as it does for companies.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2021 |
Countries that concentrate wealth in a small number of families do worse over the long term.
Factual · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
the fundamental input to wealth generation isn’t farmland, but money and ideas
Not checkable · 2021 |
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2021 |
I think that every adult US citizen should get an annual share of the US GDP.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
American Equity would create a society that Altman believes would work much better than today's.
Prediction · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
There would be difficult consequences for things like immigration policy that will need a lot of discussion.
Not checkable · 2021 |
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2021 |
we would no longer motivate people through the fear of not being able to eat.
Not checkable · 2021 |
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Not checkable |
2021 |
I believe that owning something like a share in America would align all of us in making the country as successful as possible
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Automation will significantly change how people think about work.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
Of course this won’t solve all our problems
Not checkable · 2021 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
you really do need money to make money.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
If everyone benefits more directly from economic growth, it will be easier to move faster toward a better world with automation.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
In a world where economic growth guarantees basic needs, absolute poverty in America would be eliminated.
Prediction · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
A proposal like this obviously requires a lot of new funding [1] to do at large scale
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
American Equity would cushion the transition from today's jobs to the jobs of tomorrow.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
He said he believes a new US social contract with a floor and no ceiling would lead to a huge increase in US prosperity and keep the US in the global lead.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
the better the country does, the better everyone does
Not checkable · 2021 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
we still need serious reform in areas such as housing, education, and healthcare.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2021 |
Countries have historically given land to citizens, such as through the US Homestead Acts, to distribute resources people needed to succeed.
Factual · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
The joint-stock company was one of the most important inventions in human history.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Automation could create more abundance than people ever dreamed possible.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2021 |
The joint-stock company allowed many people to align on a common goal and accomplish things no individual could.
Factual · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
I have no delusions about the challenges of such a program.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Eliminating poverty will increase productivity.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
American Equity would free Americans to work on what they really care about, improve social cohesion, and incentivize everyone to think about ways to grow the whole pie.
Prediction · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
we should consider eventually replacing some of our current aid programs, which distort incentives and are needlessly complicated and…
Not checkable · 2021 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
ramp it up to a long-term target of 10-20% of GDP per year when the GDP per capita doubles.
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Without policies addressing the cost of living crisis, any redistribution will be far less effective than it otherwise could be.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
we could start very small—a few hundred dollars per citizen per year
Not checkable · 2021 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
2021 |
It’s time to update our tax system for the way wealth works in the modern world
Not checkable · 2021 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
As the economy grows, a world could emerge in which every American has their basic needs guaranteed.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Sep 2020 |
Delighted to be on board--this is the first genuinely new computing platform I've seen since OpenAI!
Not checkable · 25 Sep 2020 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Sep 2020 |
@C_Angermayer has been passionate about this for years!
Not checkable · 22 Sep 2020 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
22 Sep 2020 |
A psilocybin-assisted therapy company has gone public (as of 2020-09-22).
Factual · 22 Sep 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Sep 2020 |
Specific ambition and non-specific ambition look pretty similar on the surface, and it's easy to emulate the wrong one.
Not checkable · 22 Sep 2020 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
23 Aug 2020 |
It’s worth it.
Not checkable · 23 Aug 2020 |
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