ClaimsPeople

Sam Altman

Sam Altman co-founded OpenAI and serves as its chief executive officer, according to OpenAI's own announcement and Crunchbase.

930 claims collected, 238 researched, 87 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    83 77 88

    High confidence, 77 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2014 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 28 unresolvable, 18 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    69 49 87

    Low confidence, 5 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2017 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 94 unresolvable. 9 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    69 49 87

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2017 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 1 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 81 (likely 76 to 86, high confidence), from 87 claims: 77 factual claims, 5 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Sam Altman's claims

108 claims · page 2 of 2

108 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 The progression of machine intelligence is a double exponential function. Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 A more probable scenario is that SMI, indifferent to humans, wipes them out while pursuing some other goal. Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 Superhuman machine intelligence will very likely be developed at some point. Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 It is very possible that creativity and what we think of as human intelligence are an emergent property of a small number of algorithms operating with a lot of compute power. Prediction · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 Machine intelligence progress may look slow and then suddenly go vertical, with things getting out of control quickly. Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 Human-written programs and computing power are improving exponentially, and self-improving software will improve itself exponentially. Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 Altman said he thinks other threats, such as an engineered virus with a long incubation period and a high mortality rate, are more certain to happen than SMI but unlikely to destroy every human in the way that SMI could. Prediction · Feb 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Feb 2015 Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
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Sam Altman

Open its page

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“Progression of machine intelligence is a double exponential function;”

Sam Altman, blog author February 2015 Machine intelligence, part 1 (Sam Altman's blog)

The progression of machine intelligence is a double exponential function.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Vague claim about the functional form of machine intelligence progress, with no defined metric or horizon.

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “The progression of machine intelligence is a double exponential function.” (said February 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a127bde45905, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a127bde45905

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Sam Altman? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.