| Mostly true |
Factual |
6 Dec 2024 |
OpenAI announced reinforcement finetuning on 2024-12-06, which makes it easy to create expert models in specific domains with little training data.
Factual · 6 Dec 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Dec 2024 |
OpenAI launched ChatGPT Pro at $200/month with unlimited usage and a more capable mode for using o1.
Factual · 5 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
4 Dec 2024 |
OpenAI will hold a livestream with a launch or demo each weekday during its '12 days of openai' starting 2024-12-05 at 10am Pacific.
Promise · 4 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Altman said GPT-5 might be the pivotal moment in AI development, adding that he did not know.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Compute will become maybe the most precious commodity in the world.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
OpenAI chose to publicly discuss GPT-1, 2, 3 and 4 rather than build in secret until GPT-5.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Not long ago, Elon Musk was talking about launching rockets while people laughed at the idea.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Other |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
By the end of this decade, possibly sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people find truly remarkable.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Altman said he did not think OpenAI would set a precedent here, and that he would heavily discourage others from doing that.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Altman said it looks like the approach of training on two-dimensional data is going to go surprisingly far, while saying he did not want to speculate much about which limits it would overcome.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Elon Musk wanted total control of OpenAI to turn it around.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
OpenAI can build a great business that pays for its compute needs without ads.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
AI will get caught up in left-versus-right political wars.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Generative video and image models will keep getting better.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Nobody at OpenAI has seen or built AGI.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Many videos, maybe most, will use AI tools in production but remain fundamentally driven by a person.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Altman said he thinks there will be a new paradigm for slower, sequential thinking in AI systems.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
18 Mar 2024 |
OpenAI will release an amazing new model in 2024.
Promise · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Compute will become the currency of the future.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Sam Altman has recently been using GPT-4 as a brainstorming partner.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Compute will become maybe the most precious commodity in the world.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
The best practitioners of programming will use multiple tools, including natural language and writing C.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Altman said his memory was that Musk's proposal was for OpenAI to be acquired by Tesla, with Tesla having full control, adding that he was "pretty sure" of this.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Altman said he expects the improvement from GPT-4 to GPT-5 to be the same as the improvement from GPT-3 to GPT-4.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Compute will become the currency of the future.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Asked whether OpenAI's compute was in the same nuclear facility, Altman said there is no nuclear facility.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Sam Altman does not expect the first AGI to be able to answer those questions, even as yes or no, though he said they would be very high on his list if it could.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Elon Musk says he cares a great deal about AI safety and is really worried about it.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Maybe some people will program entirely in natural language.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Relatively soon, people will look back at GPT-4 as they now look back at GPT-3.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
Intelligence will become more like energy, with world compute use best described as a function of price.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Mar 2024 |
AI model hallucination will not be fully solved in 2024, though upcoming versions will be much better.
Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Mar 2024 |
Elon Musk chose to part ways with OpenAI.
Factual · 18 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Nov 2023 |
OpenAI has said throughout 2023 that it expects AI progress to continue.
Factual · 30 Nov 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Nov 2023 |
OpenAI consistently said it expects AI progress to continue, even when accused of fear-mongering, marketing or regulatory capture.
Factual · 30 Nov 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Feb 2023 |
OpenAI's Charter includes a clause about assisting other organizations to advance safety instead of racing with them in late-stage AGI development.
Factual · 24 Feb 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
24 Feb 2023 |
OpenAI will discuss in more detail, later in 2023, independent audits of AI systems before release.
Promise · 24 Feb 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Feb 2023 |
OpenAI has a cap on the returns its shareholders can earn.
Factual · 24 Feb 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Feb 2023 |
OpenAI is governed by a nonprofit that can override for-profit interests.
Factual · 24 Feb 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
30 Sep 2021 |
Sam Altman invested in TrialSpark, announced on 2021-09-30.
Factual · 30 Sep 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI published a paper on summarization on 2021-09-23, and an instruction-following model produced a summary of its first part.
Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
Science and research methods |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI's book-summarizing system combines reinforcement learning from human feedback and recursive task decomposition.
Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI created a system that can generate reasonable summaries of entire books.
Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
8 Sep 2021 |
The text linked in Sam Altman's 2021-09-08 post was written by GPT-3.
Factual · 8 Sep 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Aug 2021 |
OpenAI launched Codex, an API that uses AI to write code from natural language, on 2021-08-10.
Factual · 10 Aug 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
If the US does not take a radical step toward a fair, inclusive system, it will not be the leading country in the world for much longer.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
By default, automation will concentrate wealth and power in a tiny number of hands.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
2021 |
America has repeatedly found ways to challenge concentration of wealth and power.
Factual · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Altman said he thinks a model similar to the one used by companies can work for the US as well as it does for companies.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2021 |
Countries that concentrate wealth in a small number of families do worse over the long term.
Factual · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
American Equity would create a society that Altman believes would work much better than today's.
Prediction · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Automation will significantly change how people think about work.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
If everyone benefits more directly from economic growth, it will be easier to move faster toward a better world with automation.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
In a world where economic growth guarantees basic needs, absolute poverty in America would be eliminated.
Prediction · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
American Equity would cushion the transition from today's jobs to the jobs of tomorrow.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
He said he believes a new US social contract with a floor and no ceiling would lead to a huge increase in US prosperity and keep the US in the global lead.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2021 |
Countries have historically given land to citizens, such as through the US Homestead Acts, to distribute resources people needed to succeed.
Factual · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Automation could create more abundance than people ever dreamed possible.
Prediction · 2021 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2021 |
The joint-stock company allowed many people to align on a common goal and accomplish things no individual could.
Factual · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Eliminating poverty will increase productivity.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
American Equity would free Americans to work on what they really care about, improve social cohesion, and incentivize everyone to think about ways to grow the whole pie.
Prediction · 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
Without policies addressing the cost of living crisis, any redistribution will be far less effective than it otherwise could be.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2021 |
As the economy grows, a world could emerge in which every American has their basic needs guaranteed.
Prediction · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
22 Sep 2020 |
A psilocybin-assisted therapy company has gone public (as of 2020-09-22).
Factual · 22 Sep 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
29 Jul 2020 |
OpenAI's Scholars program provides stipends and mentorship to people from underrepresented groups to study deep learning full-time, now with 10 participants and a 6-month duration.
Factual · 29 Jul 2020 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
29 Jul 2020 |
OpenAI has launched applications for its Fall 2020 Scholars program.
Factual · 29 Jul 2020 |
Field building and careers |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
22 Jul 2020 |
Altman said that "we" share concerns about bias and safety in language models, and that this is a big part of why "we" are starting off with a beta and have safety review before apps can go live.
Factual · 22 Jul 2020 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
8 Jul 2020 |
The deadline to apply for Apollo funding is the Saturday following 2020-07-08 (2020-07-11).
Factual · 8 Jul 2020 |
Field building and careers |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Jul 2020 |
The US spends the most in the world on healthcare, by far.
Factual · 5 Jul 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
16 Feb 2019 |
Average burn rates of early-stage startups rose very rapidly over the years before February 2019.
Factual · 16 Feb 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
16 Feb 2019 |
There has been a massive surge in the availability of cheap seed funding for startups.
Factual · 16 Feb 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
14 Feb 2019 |
OpenAI has produced an unsupervised language model that can do many tasks.
Factual · 14 Feb 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
29 Jan 2019 |
Y Combinator is hosting a new conference (announced January 2019).
Factual · 29 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Jan 2019 |
Helping people as much as possible over a long period led to most of Sam Altman's best career opportunities and three of his four best investments.
Factual · 24 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Jan 2019 |
Sam Altman has not met a slow-moving person who is very successful.
Factual · 24 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Jan 2019 |
Sam Altman has never met a very successful pessimistic person.
Factual · 24 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
24 Jan 2019 |
Work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success.
Factual · 24 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Jan 2019 |
Sam Altman has observed thousands of founders and thought a lot about what it takes to make a huge amount of money or create something important.
Factual · 24 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Jan 2019 |
The most successful people Sam Altman knows believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion.
Factual · 24 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
24 Jan 2019 |
Most highly successful people have been really right about the future at least once when people thought they were wrong.
Factual · 24 Jan 2019 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
24 Jan 2019 |
With technology, more and more businesses will have true network effects and extreme scalability.
Prediction · 24 Jan 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Jan 2019 |
Sam Altman spoke with Vinod Khosla in an interview or conversation published in January 2019.
Factual · 9 Jan 2019 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
5 Jan 2019 |
By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry.
Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
5 Jan 2019 |
By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale.
Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Jan 2019 |
As of January 2019, Altman said portfolio 1 in his bet was probably close to satisfying the bet's condition.
Factual · 5 Jan 2019 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Jan 2019 |
Sam Altman made a bet almost four years before January 2019.
Factual · 5 Jan 2019 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
5 Jan 2019 |
By 2025, gene editing will have cured at least one major disease.
Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2017 |
Sam Altman said he expected that someday, when the history of YC is written, people will talk about its software as one of its secret weapons.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2017 |
YC Continuity is YC's growth-stage fund.
Factual · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2017 |
The trend of the companies described keeping their data, computation and hiring advantages and buying promising startups is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2017 |
In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2017 |
In 2016 about 22.3% of companies YC funded had a woman on the founding team and about 12.5% of founders funded were women.
Factual · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2017 |
Sam Altman said he expected YC's flagship program to significantly strengthen over the course of 2017 and beyond.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2017 |
Besides Airbnb, Dropbox and Stripe, more than 50 YC companies are each worth more than $100 million.
Factual · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
1 Jan 2017 |
Sam Altman will teach YC's online startup course in 2017.
Promise · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2017 |
In 2016, YC funded 68 female founders at 52 companies.
Factual · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2017 |
YC gives companies in its program $120k for 7% ownership and works intensively with them for 3 months, then less intensively afterwards.
Factual · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
1 Jan 2017 |
The percentage of women who apply to YC is roughly the same as the percentage of women who get funded.
Factual · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
1 Jan 2017 |
Hacker News remains focused on startups, programming and other intellectually interesting topics.
Factual · 1 Jan 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |