Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
83 77 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
69 49 87 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
69 49 87
All types combined: 81 (likely 76 to 86, high confidence), from 87 claims: 77 factual claims, 5 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Sam Altman's claims
5 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Prediction | 9 Aug 2025 | After GPT-5 launches there will be another big spike in demand that OpenAI will not be able to serve. Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 21 Dec 2024 | On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction. Prediction · 21 Dec 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 5 Jan 2019 | By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry. Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Prediction | 5 Jan 2019 | By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale. Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Prediction | 2017 | Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Prediction · 2017 | Other |
“I believe her.”
Sam Altman, blog author 2017 Time to Take a Stand (Sam Altman's blog)
Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
Judge over the rest of Trump's first term, from the 2017 statement to 20 January 2021. True: Trump took many further major executive and policy actions after the statement (for example numerous executive orders, major policy changes, further immigration restrictions, deregulation, trade actions), so that the early 2017 actions were clearly only the start. Mostly true: many further actions followed, but they were noticeably less sweeping or less frequent than his early actions. Mixed: some significant further actions, but activity largely stalled or was mostly reversed. Mostly false: few significant new actions followed. False: the administration took essentially no significant new actions after early 2017.
Evidence
- List of executive orders in the first Trump presidency - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Donald Trump signed a total of 220 executive orders during his first term, from January 2017 to January 2021.”
- Four Years of Profound Change: Immigration Policy during the Trump Presidency Migration Policy Institute · February 2022
“this report documents the 472 immigration-related policy changes the Trump administration made during its four years in office”
- Four Years of Profound Change: Immigration Policy during the Trump Presidency Migration Policy Institute · February 2022
“Attempt to Rescind DACA—September 5, 2017—The administration announced a staggered end to the DACA program.”
- List of executive orders in the first Trump presidency - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“With lawsuits brought by San Francisco and Santa Clara counties, Orrick ruled that the Trump administration cannot set new conditions on spending approved by Congress.”
Reasoning
E1 records that Trump signed 220 executive orders between January 2017 and January 2021, which covers the whole term rather than just its opening weeks. E2 documents 472 immigration-related policy changes over the four years. E3 gives a major later example: the September 2017 announcement ending DACA. Courts blocked some actions (E4), but the evidence shows many major actions continued through the term rather than stalling, which meets the criteria for true.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started.” (said 2017). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_741cfb142bc1, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_741cfb142bc1
Claims without a verdict
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