ClaimsPeople

Sam Altman

Sam Altman co-founded OpenAI and serves as its chief executive officer, according to OpenAI's own announcement and Crunchbase.

930 claims collected, 238 researched, 87 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    83 77 88

    High confidence, 77 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2014 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 28 unresolvable, 18 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    69 49 87

    Low confidence, 5 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2017 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 94 unresolvable. 9 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    69 49 87

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2017 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 1 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 81 (likely 76 to 86, high confidence), from 87 claims: 77 factual claims, 5 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Sam Altman's claims

9 claims

9 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In a decade, people will not talk about AI as much as they do now, because it will be expected everywhere. Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In another 6.5 years, average per capita token use will rise to roughly 100 billion tokens a month. Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In another 6.5 years, the world's top individual user will use about 100 quadrillion tokens a month. Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Prediction 15 Aug 2025 Robotics will be incredibly important in a couple of years. Prediction · 15 Aug 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 9 Aug 2025 Asked about fully general-purpose models like the GPT series, Altman said he would say most people will agree that "that" happens at some point over the next two years, while noting that the definition of "significant" matters a lot. Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 9 Aug 2025 Altman said he would bet that by late 2027 most people will agree there has been a significant AI-driven new discovery. Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 9 Aug 2025 Altman said he thinks that by 2035 it will be possible to use AI tools to cure, or at least treat, a significant number of diseases that currently plague us. Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable. Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 18 Mar 2024 By the end of this decade, possibly sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people find truly remarkable. Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
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Sam Altman

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Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“But what I would say, in the interest of not trying to dodge a question, is I expect that by the end of this decade and possibly somewhat sooner than that, we will have quite capable systems that we look at and say, “Wow, that’s really remarkable.””

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, interviewee 18 March 2024 Transcript for Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI (Lex Fridman)

Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2030 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable.” (said 18 March 2024). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_258c0110bef8, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_258c0110bef8

Claims without a verdict

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