Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
83 77 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
67 49 83 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 81 (likely 76 to 86, high confidence), from 87 claims: 79 factual claims, 8 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Rodney Brooks's claims
4 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not yet due | Promise | 1 Jan 2026 | Brooks will talk explicitly about the two technologies he has put in his five prediction topics, one of them robots with humanoid form, for each of the next ten years. Promise · 1 Jan 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Promise | 1 Jan 2018 | Rodney Brooks will publish on his blog dated predictions covering the next thirty-two years. Promise · 1 Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Promise | 1 Jan 2018 | Brooks said he had promised in 2018 to review his predictions at the start of every year until 2050, thirty-two years in total. Promise · 1 Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Promise | 16 Dec 2014 | Starting in 2015, Rethink Robotics will provide APIs allowing developers to improve Baxter. Promise · 16 Dec 2014 | Their own work or organisation |
“I have now put these two things in my five topics of my new predictions shared at the beginning of this post”
Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2026 Predictions Scorecard, 2026 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)
Brooks will talk explicitly about the two technologies he has put in his five prediction topics, one of them robots with humanoid form, for each of the next ten years.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Reasoning
deadline 2036 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Rodney Brooks, “Brooks will talk explicitly about the two technologies he has put in his five prediction topics, one of them robots with humanoid form, for each of the next ten years.” (said 1 January 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_c647164ceb38, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c647164ceb38
Claims without a verdict
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