ClaimsPeople

Rodney Brooks

Rodney Brooks is a roboticist, MIT professor emeritus, and co-founder of iRobot, Rethink Robotics and Robust.AI.

1,166 claims collected, 291 researched, 88 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    83 77 88

    High confidence, 79 factual claims resolved. From 17 documents, 2014 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 31 unresolvable, 17 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    67 49 83

    Low confidence, 8 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2018 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 91 unresolvable. 60 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 3 not yet due.

    See the promises

All types combined: 81 (likely 76 to 86, high confidence), from 87 claims: 79 factual claims, 8 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Rodney Brooks's claims

291 claims · page 3 of 3

291 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Point-to-point transport on Earth in about an hour using a BF rocket will not happen in the author's lifetime without a major new breakthrough. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The generally agreed 'next big thing' in AI beyond deep learning will be something already being worked on with published papers, emerging no earlier than 2023 and by 2027. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Realising the hyperloop will require many new technologies and designs, none of which existed before, for every aspect of the system. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Underground car-pallet transport at over 100mph will not become a real, viable mass-market service in the author's lifetime, only small demonstration projects. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Cities will be changed by driverless cars through special lanes, geo-fencing, altered pick-up/drop-off norms, parking regulation changes and other incremental modifications. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Promise 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks will publish on his blog dated predictions covering the next thirty-two years. Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 As of the end of 2017, IPv6 adoption was far from complete, with network traffic categories on IPv6 ranging from under 2% to just over 20%. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 No self driving car will be faced with an instance of the trolley problem until beyond 2050. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Flying cars will reach 0.01% of total US cars no earlier than 2042. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There will be no commercially viable passenger-carrying hyperloop systems within the next 32 years (by 2050). Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks said he thinks landing cargo on Mars by 2026 is optimistic, though it might be pushed to happen as a statement that it can be done rather than for a pressing practical reason. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Horseless carriages did not simply replace horse-drawn carriages one for one but required new infrastructure and ownership and usage models. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Robotics, AI and ML will not produce a general intelligence that can suddenly do all the things humans or chimpanzees can do. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks previously identified underestimating adoption time of new technologies as the seventh of seven deadly sins of predicting the future of AI. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Driverless cars will not simply replace human-driven cars one for one. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A flying car will not be available for purchase by any US resident with enough money before 2036, and there is a real possibility this will not happen at all by 2050. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 In the months before January 2018, Rodney Brooks publicly criticised what he considers hype around AI and machine learning. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A conversational agent with long-term context that avoids repeated patterns will go from lab demo (no earlier than 2023) to widespread deployment on platforms like Google Home and Amazon Echo by 2025. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks has worked in both Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for over forty years. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A major city banning parking and human-driven cars from part of the city will be the starting point of a turn toward driverless cars, no earlier than 2027 and by 2031. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 In the movie "I, Robot" a robot rescued the Will Smith character after a car accident at the expense of letting a young girl die, a key plot aspect. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Other
Not yet due Promise 1 Jan 2018 Brooks said he had promised in 2018 to review his predictions at the start of every year until 2050, thirty-two years in total. Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 7 Sep 2017 As of 2017, Google/Waymo has worked on self-driving cars for eight years and has no identified path to large-scale deployment. Factual · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Mostly true Factual 7 Sep 2017 AI was overestimated in the 1960s and the 1980s, and Brooks believes it is being overestimated again in 2017. Factual · 7 Sep 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 7 Sep 2017 Hardware has a significant marginal cost to deploy. Factual · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 7 Sep 2017 AI will most likely be underestimated in the long term. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 7 Sep 2017 People will still be in the loop worrying about physical wiring of robotics and AI systems for decades to come. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Widespread deployment of self-driving cars will take decades, not years. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Long before any evil super-intelligent machines arise, less intelligent and belligerent machines will appear first. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction 7 Sep 2017 A program smart enough to subvert human society to achieve human-set goals without understanding the problems it causes will never exist in the real world. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Factual 7 Sep 2017 AlphaGo and Deep Blue (which beat Garry Kasparov in 1997) cannot adapt to a small change in the rules of their game. Factual · 7 Sep 2017 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Real deployment of self-driving cars could come four, five or six decades after 1987. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Factual 7 Sep 2017 Brooks said that, as of 2017, everyone had suddenly become aware of self-driving cars and thought they would soon be deployed. Factual · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Exponential growth in the number of users of social platforms such as Facebook or Twitter will eventually turn into an S-curve because the number of potential users is finite. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 7 Sep 2017 In July 1995 a CMU minivan, with no hands on the wheel or feet on pedals, drove coast to coast across the US on public roads. Factual · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Because many of the non-self-driving cars bought today will likely still be on the road in 2040, this puts an inherent limit on how soon all cars will be self-driving. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 7 Sep 2017 If super-intelligent machines are eventually built, their existence will not come as a sudden surprise; they will evolve gradually. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Some of large companies' marketing messages about their AI offerings may cause very bad blowback for them in the not too distant future. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Brooks said he thinks that mathematical provability is a vain hope, adding that we won't be able to prove very much at all about large AI systems. Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2017 At least one car manufacturer fears human drivers will bully level 2 self-driving cars, so its level 3 real-world trial cars look identical to conventional models. Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2017 In level 2 and 3 autonomy, the time available for a person to reorient and respond is often much shorter than people need. Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Self-parking cars will take up much less room than human-parked cars, so there will be an economic incentive to develop garages where such cars are tightly packed. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 At some point every car will be level 5 autonomous and people will no longer be allowed to drive. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 No robot or perception system today, or in the foreseeable future, can determine the state of the world well enough to know which of Asimov's laws applies. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 The day when all cars are level 5 and manual driving is gone will not be soon, and flying cars will come even later. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Reasonable level 4 systems will be technically possible in the not too distant future, but social issues will keep their domains of operation rather restricted. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Brooks guessed that deaths involving driverless cars will never come close to the high numbers of deaths that society has accepted for human-driven cars. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 12 Jan 2017 Gill Pratt, CEO of Toyota Research Institute, said in early January 2017 that none in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy. Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Autonomous delivery vehicles may be deployed case by case in not too many years, but it will be a long time before they are close to universal as a means of delivery. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Autonomous trucks will convoy behind a single human-occupied truck in designated highway lanes, with humans required in each truck off the highway. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 12 Jan 2017 As of January 2017 there are only fifteen fully driverless train systems in the United States, mostly in airports, each with at most a handful of miles of track. Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 4 autonomous cars will operate in limited geographic domains with no pedestrians or other human drivers. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 The public will push back against level 5 and widespread level 4 autonomy during trials and early deployments. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Moral dilemma questions for self-driving cars (trolley-problem type) will have no practical impact on any car or person for the foreseeable future. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Deployment of level 4 autonomy will be slower than technology enthusiasts expect, led by various special cases. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 12 Jan 2017 In Asimov's book the Three Laws of Robotics were used as a plot source, with ambiguities and conflicts between the laws driving plot twists. Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Early in the transition to driverless cars, wealthy owners will have a new way to alienate the rest of society. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Schools will push back against owners using self-driving cars to pick up children early, but people will still try it. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2017 Many groups, including Tesla, have promoted the advantage of cars autonomously handling parking. Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Arguing about these questions will not have any practical impact or lead to practical regulations about what can or cannot go into automobiles. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Ten autonomous-car deaths per year in the US may be deemed unacceptable even though it would be 34,990 fewer deaths. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 We will not have cars that can tell nuns from robbers, a point made right after saying that robot perception today and in the foreseeable future cannot work out the state of the world well enough. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 5 autonomy over large geographical areas is a long time away. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual 12 Jan 2017 As of January 2017, almost all new cars have level 1 autonomy features and level 2 autonomy is becoming more common in production products. Factual · 12 Jan 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Before long, grocery store parking lots, especially in storms, will be filled with improperly parked self-driving cars waiting for their owners. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Society will delay adopting level 4 and 5 autonomy, at the cost of more lives lost, rather than accept many deaths caused by autonomous driving systems. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 4 autonomy may appear on some delivery vehicles in dense urban environments. Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks robots will increasingly be part of the community of connected objects. Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks that, in the coming decades, work will be a collaboration between robots and people rather than robots doing everything. Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Factual 16 Dec 2014 All software doing motion planning now is developed by people other than Brooks. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Delivered on time Promise 16 Dec 2014 Starting in 2015, Rethink Robotics will provide APIs allowing developers to improve Baxter. Promise · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 16 Dec 2014 Labour costs were rising and the era of infinitely cheap labour was coming to an end. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Factual 16 Dec 2014 The smallest US customer of Brooks's company that uses industrial robots is a nine-person company in Tennessee. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he did not think robots over the next fifty, or even a hundred, years would be able to do everything, and that people would see more and more collaboration with machines during their lifetimes. Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks has recently learned JavaScript. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks the future will be made of collaboration, speaking about factory work and an ageing factory workforce. Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks no longer touches the product directly but takes part in prototyping that he shows to the engineers. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks first presented his 1986 layered-architecture work in France. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 16 Dec 2014 For the Roomba, the target price was chosen first and the design was based on it. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 16 Dec 2014 Rethink Robotics does not have all of those disciplines (neurobiology, ethology, psychophysics, sociology) but bases its work on user experience. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 16 Dec 2014 The first industrial robots were installed in 1961, when a computer filled an entire room. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Unresolvable Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks managed to build his first robot at age sixteen. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 16 Dec 2014 Baxter uses some parts of Brooks's earlier research work, but less intensively than research laboratories do. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 16 Dec 2014 Many Rethink Robotics factory customers use low-cost 3D printers to print new grippers to replace Baxter's original hands. Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 18 Sep 2012 Over the next twenty years no one will mistake a robot for a person, but people will interact and collaborate with robots, which will become as common in daily life as search engines are today. Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Sep 2012 Robots will understand tasks in terms of the objects, places and people involved rather than as a series of simple motions, and so will show simple forms of common sense. For example, if a person takes a dish from a robot that is carrying it to the dishwasher, the robot will stop heading to the dishwasher and go back to the dining table for the next dish. Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Sep 2012 As a result of collaborative robots like Baxter, American manufacturers and workers will be more competitive on the global stage. Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 18 Sep 2012 Robots will become cheaper and more adaptive to their surroundings, and people will find it unsurprising to train a robot for a new task in a few minutes. Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 Technology
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Rodney Brooks

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Prediction Technology

“My prediction was that hyperloop was not going to happen in my lifetime, i.e., not by 2050, still twenty six years from now.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2018 Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2050 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_20df2a32f11e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_20df2a32f11e

Claims without a verdict

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