ClaimsPeople

Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and was its CEO until 2017, and is the author of several books including Principles: Life and Work.

827 claims collected, 172 researched, 91 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    77 71 83

    High confidence, 80 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2010 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 33 unresolvable, 4 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    72 56 86

    Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2010 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 41 unresolvable. 3 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Ray Dalio's claims

827 claims · page 8 of 9

827 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I’m fascinated by evolution. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Anything that doesn’t have a reason for being what it is, I practically can’t remember. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Mostly true Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio said his video on YouTube had been downloaded 5,000,000 times and was highly rated. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 If you start thinking that way, it’s radically beneficial. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 If you can reduce your risk and keep your expected return the same, you’ve got to do that. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Mostly true Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio analyzed the payments countries owed banks and calculated that those countries would not be able to repay the U.S. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Feb 2018 People with bipolar disorder are often very creative. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 knowing that they’re intrinsically different is good enough. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It's a pretty simple machine. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The averages are very misleading. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Besides being so damaging, it’s so much less enriching. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio said he believes that if economies were to go down now, there would be a great deal of conflict. Prediction · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I shifted my attitude from thinking I’m right to ask myself, how do I know I’m right? Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Some of the most painful experiences in retrospect give you an appreciation that you wouldn’t otherwise have. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The more data you have, the better. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Mistakes, look, first of all, they’re giving you a loud signal. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I learned that creative genius is at the edge of insanity. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Resolved true Factual 1 Feb 2018 After a 50% loss in value, an investment needs a 100% return to get back to its starting value. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has never liquidated investment positions because of stress. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Mistakes are part of the process. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 If you have meaningful work, like you’re on a mission, and you have meaningful relationships, I think it’s almost impossible not to be… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Diversification, proper diversification, can reduce your risk without reducing your return. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The second step is you have to have thoughtful disagreement. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Whatever your form of pain, the best thing to do is to record it. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 This is a matter of principles. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It’s invaluable in an idea meritocracy. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Sep 2017 What is a big deal is if you had an economic downturn because we have two economies, Not checkable · 19 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Sep 2017 If you were to have a downturn, I really do believe that the wealth conflict, the left, the right and all of that would be intolerable, Not checkable · 19 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Sep 2017 If you have a downturn, I think it becomes a social and political question. Not checkable · 19 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 19 Sep 2017 I think we're in a good part of the cycle, Not checkable · 19 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 In one word it's an IBM meritocracy which the goal is to have meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truthfulness and… Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I don't think it's a systemic problem. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 Don't worry about slicing the pie precisely. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 Both of those are bad. The best thing you can do is have believability-weighted decision-making. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 the biggest issues, I think, that we all face as individuals is not knowing whether we're right or wrong and not being straightforward with… Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 The greatest tragedy of mankind, or one of them, is that people needlessly hold long opinions in their minds. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 It's certainly mechanically possible, but you can't do it perfectly. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 But when you bet against the consensus, you're going to be wrong a lot. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 You lower a tax rate, you cause the stocks to be worth more. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I could raise my profitability of being right if I could put those ideas that might be wrong out there and stress test them. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 There's nothing right now that I can see. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 So now we are in an environment which, very similar to 1937 in terms of the early stages of perhaps the beginning of a tightening. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Resolved true Factual 12 Sep 2017 Ray Dalio started going to China in 1984. Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 Well, we always think about hedging risk. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 If you don't show people things, you're going to have manipulation. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 What you don't know is so much greater than what you do know. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 It's worked. It's the reason for success for 42 years, so it's got some reason behind it, you know? Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Resolved true Factual 12 Sep 2017 The US dollar is a fiat paper currency. Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 Not for money, but because of curiosity. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Mostly true Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 If you want to know the key to whatever Bridgewater's success has been, it's not me. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Mostly true Factual 12 Sep 2017 Bridgewater has managed money since 1993 for Chinese institutions outside China. Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 the only way that you're going to know that it is through high-quality triangulation. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I think Gary Cohn is a very capable man who also has his greatest strength in being able to know who also to speak to. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 What I do is give people great opportunity. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 The most important thing is to know how to separate those two things. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I'm not going to tell what trades, what particular decision rules that we're using. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 at this stage of my life my aspirations are very different than my aspirations before. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I found the Chinese leadership to be intelligent, having equanimity and like good chess players. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 So we have very little. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I think it would be terrible if Gary left. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Mostly true Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Algorithms will become part of people's lives. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Technology
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 This is a year of transition from my second stage of my life in which I'm working and helping others who are dependent on me to passing… Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 the power of great collective decision-making is so much greater than the power of any individual's decision-making. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 You can't have an IBM meritocracy. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I think it would be bad for the market. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Mostly true Factual 12 Sep 2017 The US economy has gotten past the worst of the leveraging (debt build-up). Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 you have to have IBM meritocratic ways of getting around them Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I think the most important thing is there must not be a downturn in the economy. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I'm worried more about the wealth and social gap and the conflicts that we're going to have with each other. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 if they're bad intentions, I'm angry, not hurt. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Radical transparency will increasingly affect people and cannot be avoided. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Sep 2017 US economic growth is probably around 2.5% a year in the current environment. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 It wasn't the other way around. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Resolved true Factual 12 Sep 2017 In the 1980s Dalio was wrong in expecting the worst economic conditions. Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 first, you have to put your honest thoughts on the table. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Dalio expects a slow, increasing squeeze, while saying that current cash flows can support debts for the time being. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 Second, you have to have thoughtful disagreement. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 gold is an effective diversifier of assets and an effective diversifier also in terms of currency regimes. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 In order to be successful, we have to have independent thinkers, so independent that they'll bet against the consensus. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 When I mean radical transparency, I don't mean total transparency. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 these principles, not me, has been the basis of whatever success I've had. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I think the Federal Reserve has done a much better job of realizing such things. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I started to realize that I had nothing, very little, in relationship to the enormity of the things that needed to be done. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Resolved true Factual 12 Sep 2017 Dalio said he was told that his process of being radically truthful was hurting people's morale. Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 the only way I know I'm right is by being able to have thoughtful disagreement. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I want to do it out in the open because that enhances an IBM meritocracy. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 I'm not particularly worried about those. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 my ability to deal with my not knowing is better than my ability to defend things that I have that I know Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 If you look at the market behavior, you could basically calculate, essentially, the betas to the North Korea event by just watching how the… Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Mostly true Factual 12 Sep 2017 The top 0.2% of the US population has a net worth equal to that of the bottom 90%. Factual · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 So we have the equivalent of a very, still, highly burdened economy that's a problem. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 12 Sep 2017 It should be part of everybody's portfolio, between 5 and 10%. Not checkable · 12 Sep 2017
Resolved true Factual 17 Sep 2015 Interest rates are going to zero. Factual · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 Sep 2015 China's economy is going to be "just fine". Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 Sep 2015 That's what central banks do in the middle of it. Not checkable · 17 Sep 2015
Unresolvable Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Equity risk premiums over bonds are about 3.5% to 4%. Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 Sep 2015 The United States is in the midpoint of its short-term debt cycle. Not checkable · 17 Sep 2015
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Ray Dalio

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“I’m fascinated by evolution.”

Ray Dalio 1 February 2018 Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Ray Dalio (#264) (tim.blog)

I’m fascinated by evolution.

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “I’m fascinated by evolution.” (said 1 February 2018). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_d44ca328546e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d44ca328546e

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