ClaimsPeople

Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and was its CEO until 2017, and is the author of several books including Principles: Life and Work.

827 claims collected, 172 researched, 91 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    77 71 83

    High confidence, 80 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2010 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 33 unresolvable, 4 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    72 56 86

    Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2010 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 41 unresolvable. 3 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Ray Dalio's claims

827 claims · page 7 of 9

827 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 one of the most important ways of raising my probability of being right is not being confident that I’m right and being able to go out… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The first is that you have to put your honest thoughts on the table. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 You can take these assets and achieve a level of balance with those assets, that doesn’t cost you in expected return but provides you a… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It has to be timeless and universal. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It makes one more creative. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 But the best way to do it is you do it before breakfast and you do it before dinner, having not eaten much or not eaten. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I’m quite an expert on the whole thing. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 They were maybe the greatest historians of all time. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not researched Factual 1 Feb 2018 Holding about 15 uncorrelated bets with similar expected returns of about 10 percent improves the return-to-risk ratio by a factor of 5. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 1 Feb 2018 Intelligence and happiness probably have no correlation with each other. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Whereas, a typical institutional investor or a pension fund will buy when it goes down because they have to rebalance their portfolio to… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 For me, I keep thinking, what are they going to take away from me and what’s it really going to mean? Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I’m at a stage in my life where my objective is no longer to be more successful myself. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Then there’s the other kind of risk, which is to take it. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 There are only two things you need to do in life in order to be successful. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It was a very controversial view at the time. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I would say that those things probably will help them be not only more successful, but comfortable with themselves. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I know that the most important way that you can do that – there are a few ways – but one of the most important ways is knowing how to… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I think it’s a combination of being totally unconventional and having better processes and then there’s a hell of a lot of determination. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I think evolution is the greatest force in the universe. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 If I solve the puzzle, the puzzle being what would I do differently in the future, I would get a gem. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 They will all be affected by the discount rate, the interest rate, we use to calculate the present value. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I think the more important is to understand are they intrinsically different things. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Resolved true Factual 1 Feb 2018 Diversifying across bets that are 60 percent correlated reduces risk by only about 15 percent, perhaps slightly more. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I learn through my experiences and my more subliminal learning. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 You wouldn’t want to borrow the cash to buy something different because probably it’s correlation with whatever you’re using as a… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Some stock may go public, then the owners have a window that is closed to them to sell it and then the window opens up and then they’re… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 In retrospect, it really was the best thing that ever happened to me because it gave me the humility that I needed to become more… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not researched Factual 1 Feb 2018 At age 12, Ray Dalio became hooked on the stock market and invested his caddying money in a company's stock. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I believe that basically everything is another one of those. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The meditation may not be as deep. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The stupidest people I know, least successful people I know, are people who don’t own up to those weaknesses and grow. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 today it’s primarily a speculative market. It’s not intrinsic value that you’re going to be looking at. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The nature of psychological pain is that it passes fairly quickly. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I can hardly ever remember my big wins. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I was lucky and I was hooked on the stock market. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I prefer a quiet place, comfortable spot. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I would urge you to find out how you’re going to hedge that thing. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I take a few minutes to settle myself down, just as you’re describing. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Resolved true Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio made a 30-minute video called How the Economic Machine Works, available on YouTube. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has liquidated positions to take risk off the table when certain events occurred and he was uncertain. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The thing that we find is very few people have a problem intellectually liking what’s going on here. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Therefore, the marketplace is pretty smart. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Everybody’s equal in having an opinion. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It’s also culturally like a big faux pas or a big thing to lose your cool in that way. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Autocratic means the one with the power makes the decision. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I would say curiosity is a big motivator of mine. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Mixed Factual 1 Feb 2018 24 percent of the population has been diagnosed with some form of mental illness. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 First, you have to have audacious goals. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It’s really from the subconscious where creativity comes from. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 A typical individual, maybe a mutual fund buyer, will buy after something’s gone up because they think it’s a better investment. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The world has got much too much to offer relative to my capacity to digest it. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It relieves all stress. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Psychology is a big deal. Psychology is a big deal in the markets. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not researched Factual 1 Feb 2018 Bridgewater uses a computer tool on an iPad that processes data in the background and coaches people on how to interact. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I do mostly original research. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Little things are symptomatic of bigger things. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I think right now we’re in the midst of an era that’s very much like the ‘30s Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I’m very much more driven to the buying and selling. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 We approach it with the idea of how do we find out if it’s true? Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Mixed Factual 1 Feb 2018 The top 0.2 percent of the population has a net worth about equal to that of the bottom 90 percent combined. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 My successes far exceeded what I imagined, one bit at a time. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 every investment is a lump sum cash payment now for an income stream in the future. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I think basically they became like puzzles. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I’m a professional mistake maker. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Second, you have to have the courage to make them, to do what’s necessary. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 That’s why the strategies I’m describing, the combination of diversification so no one bet is going to matter so much. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I have a terrible rote memory, by the way. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It’s difficult because we’re not brought up that way. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 A lot of people have told me that it’s better than the psychologist because it’s there every day of the week and you can see yourself. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Humility and triangulation of great people is an excellent way of raising one’s probability of making a good decision. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I’m a researcher, basically. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Mostly true Factual 1 Feb 2018 Dalio recalls when "we" got the Kodak account, which he describes as a big deal because Kodak was a big, important client and the account was a stamp of institutional approval. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I felt that my No. 1 goal is to help people be successful without me. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It just really puts things in perspective. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 All of those assets are going to have, roughly speaking, comparable expected returns other than the surprises that will take place in the… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It’s going to be a highly impure hedge. It needs to be engineered. It’s a very difficult thing. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 There are two yous inside you. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not researched Factual 1 Feb 2018 Clinical depression is a chemical reaction involving serotonin and dopamine, with a physiological driver. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It’s quite a bleak, difficult picture. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The key to success is to identify what one of those it is and to look how it’s worked in the past many times. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I’ve found transcendental meditation to be invaluable. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 People can be real rich on paper and pretty poor cash wise. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 if you’re not falling a lot and hurting yourself a lot, you’re probably not learning. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 But I will skim – and it depends on how much time and a lot of things. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Taking the emotions out of it is a real plus. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The greatest people I know have weaknesses and have become successful because they know how to compensate for the weaknesses. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not researched Factual 1 Feb 2018 Bridgewater has a protocol called the two-minute rule, letting a person speak for two minutes without interruption. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 The Hero with a Thousand Faces is a little bit dense, but it’s so rich, it’s a good one. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 In other words, almost everything happens over and over and over again through history. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I think anybody who’s openminded and smart knows you’re going to learn more from mistakes. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not researched Factual 1 Feb 2018 Psychological tests show that people start with an opinion and filter incoming information to be consistent with it. Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 There’s such a bias to think that just because you have an opinion, that it’s valuable. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 I do remember my big losses or my big mistakes. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Most importantly, it’s that people can be radically honest with each other. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 Idea meritocracy is when the best ideas win out. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 No, just have their own principles that they believe in and be open-minded. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 One of the things that I’ve learned over the years is that many surprises come because things that happen as surprises never happened in… Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 It takes about 18 months to get used to because there are these subliminal reactions. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 1 Feb 2018 You should write your principles. Not checkable · 1 Feb 2018
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Ray Dalio

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“one of the most important ways of raising my probability of being right is not being confident that I’m right and being able to go out there and gather the triangulation.”

Ray Dalio 1 February 2018 Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Ray Dalio (#264) (tim.blog)

one of the most important ways of raising my probability of being right is not being confident that I’m right and being able to go out…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “one of the most important ways of raising my probability of being right is not being confident that I’m right and being able to go out…” (said 1 February 2018). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_10db51b38a7c, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_10db51b38a7c

Claims without a verdict

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