Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
72 56 86
All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Ray Dalio's claims
45 claims
“those with bipolar are often very creative people.”
Ray Dalio, interviewee 1 February 2018 Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Ray Dalio (#264) (tim.blog)
People with bipolar disorder are often very creative.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that people with bipolar disorder are often very creative, as of 2018-02-01. Judge it against the peer-reviewed research available then (for example Kyaga et al. 2011/2013 Swedish registry studies, Jamison, meta-analyses). True: research consistently shows elevated creativity or over-representation in creative occupations among people with bipolar disorder, so a substantial share is notably creative. Mostly true: research shows an association (for example over-representation in creative professions, especially among relatives or milder forms), but 'often very creative' somewhat overstates its size. Mixed: findings are inconsistent, with an association in some studies and not others. Mostly false: the association is weak or limited to subgroups, or it is unproven and stated as established. False: research shows no association, or lower creativity.
Evidence
- Creativity and bipolar disorder: Touched by fire or burning with questions? PubMed Central (NCBI); journal not named on the fetched page · 13 October 2011
“The mean occupational creativity score of those with bipolar I disorder was significantly higher (4.54) than was the mean of those with no diagnosis of bipolar disorder (3.07). Although significant, these findings also suggest that many people with bipolar disorder are not engaged in creative occupations.”
- Creativity and bipolar disorder: Touched by fire or burning with questions? PubMed Central (NCBI); journal not named on the fetched page · 13 October 2011
“As shown in Table 1, these studies have provided consistent evidence for elevated rates of bipolar disorder in samples of famous individuals.”
- Creativity and bipolar disorder: Touched by fire or burning with questions? PubMed Central (NCBI); journal not named on the fetched page · 13 October 2011
“Although most studies of creative eminence have found some overrepresentation of vulnerability to or diagnoses of bipolar disorder, the degree of association noted in these samples has varied dramatically.”
- Creativity and bipolar disorder: Touched by fire or burning with questions? PubMed Central (NCBI); journal not named on the fetched page · 13 October 2011
“This study provided no evidence for elevations in divergent thinking among those diagnosed with bipolar disorder.”
Reasoning
I rated this claim mostly true. A 2011 independent review reports that people with bipolar I disorder had significantly higher occupational creativity scores than people without the diagnosis (E1). It also says studies of famous people consistently found more bipolar disorder than expected (E2). However, the same review notes that many people with bipolar disorder do not work in creative occupations (E1), that the strength of the link varies widely between studies (E3), and that one study found no rise in divergent thinking (E4). So the research shows a real association, but "often very creative" somewhat overstates how large it is.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “People with bipolar disorder are often very creative.” (said 1 February 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_dcee4a5e9bfd, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_dcee4a5e9bfd
Claims without a verdict
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