Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
72 56 86
All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Ray Dalio's claims
7 claims
“Incarceration is between $80,000 and $120,000 a year is what happens”
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee 11 November 2018 Transcript: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater (Ritholtz)
Incarceration costs between $80,000 and $120,000 a year.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of November 2018, against published estimates of annual cost per incarcerated person in the US, for the context Dalio was discussing (likely Connecticut, or high-cost states and juvenile detention). True: credible estimates for that context fall within or close to $80,000–$120,000 a year (for example Connecticut or New York prison or juvenile costs). Mostly true: the relevant estimates are in the range, but only for some jurisdictions or facility types (for example juvenile or high-cost states) and the claim is stated more generally. Mixed: estimates in the cited range exist, but typical figures for the context are well below it. Mostly false: typical US or relevant-state adult costs are well below the range (for example $30,000–$60,000) and the range applies only to outlier cases. False: no credible estimate for any relevant context comes near the range.
Evidence
- The Price of Prisons - Prison spending in 2015 Vera Institute of Justice · 23 May 2017
“Among the 45 states that provided data (representing 1.29 million of the 1.33 million total people incarcerated in all 50 state prison systems), the total cost per inmate averaged $33,274 and ranged from a low of $14,780 in Alabama to a high of $69,355 in New York.”
- The Price of Prisons - Prison spending in 2015 Vera Institute of Justice · 23 May 2017
“Eight states—Alaska, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont—had a cost per inmate above $50,000.”
- The Price of Prisons - Prison spending in 2015 Vera Institute of Justice · 23 May 2017
“The corrections systems in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont have a unified structure, meaning that jails and prisons are operated by the state rather than the county and state jurisdictions, respectively.”
Reasoning
Vera Institute data for 2015 put the average cost per state prison inmate at $33,274. Costs ranged from $14,780 in Alabama to $69,355 in New York, so every state reporting data was below Dalio's $80,000 floor (E1). Connecticut was among eight states above $50,000 per inmate (E2), but that is still well below the claimed range, and its figure covers a unified prison-and-jail system (E3). The evidence does not address juvenile detention costs, so it cannot rule out higher figures in that context. Against the adult figures available, the claimed range resolves mostly false.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “Incarceration costs between $80,000 and $120,000 a year.” (said 11 November 2018). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_709e482ea4e7, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_709e482ea4e7
Claims without a verdict
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