Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
72 56 86
All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Ray Dalio's claims
7 claims
“Did you see that the Fed’s announcement that it will stop QT and begin QE?”
Ray Dalio, writing in LinkedIn commentary 12 November 2025 Ray Dalio Warns the Fed May Be Stimulating Into a Bubble (The Acquirer's Multiple)
The Federal Reserve announced that it will stop quantitative tightening (QT) and begin quantitative easing (QE).
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Count only Federal Reserve announcements (FOMC statements, implementation notes, official minutes or press conferences) made on or before 2025-11-12. TRUE: the Fed had announced both an end to balance-sheet runoff (QT) and the start of net asset purchases that expand its balance sheet (QE). MOSTLY TRUE: the Fed had announced the end of QT plus net balance-sheet-expanding purchases under another name (for example reserve-management purchases). MOSTLY FALSE: the Fed had announced only the end of QT, or the reinvestment of runoff proceeds into other securities that keeps the balance sheet roughly flat, with no net expansion. FALSE: no announcement ending QT had been made. Announcements made after 2025-11-12 do not count.
Evidence
- Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference -- October 29, 2025 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 29 October 2025
“We also decided to conclude the reduction of our aggregate securities holdings as of December 1.”
- Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference -- October 29, 2025 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 29 October 2025
“In December, we will enter the next phase of our normalization plans by holding the size of our balance sheet steady for a time while reserve balances continue to move gradually lower as other nonreserve liabilities such as currency keep growing.”
- Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference -- October 29, 2025 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 29 October 2025
“The place we’ll be on December 1 is that the size of the balance sheet is frozen, and as mortgage-backed securities mature, we’ll reinvest those in Treasury bills, which will foster both a more Treasury balance sheet and also a shorter duration.”
Reasoning
At the October 29, 2025 press conference, Chair Powell said the Fed had decided to end the reduction of its securities holdings as of December 1 (E1), so an end to QT was announced. He also said the next phase would hold the balance sheet's size steady while reserves drift lower (E2). Maturing mortgage-backed securities would be reinvested in Treasury bills, with the balance sheet "frozen" (E3). None of these announcements, all made on or before 2025-11-12, mentions net purchases that would expand the balance sheet. The criteria call this case, where QT ends and the balance sheet stays flat with no expansion, mostly false.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “The Federal Reserve announced that it will stop quantitative tightening (QT) and begin quantitative easing (QE).” (said 12 November 2025). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_62e6be3cec85, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_62e6be3cec85
Claims without a verdict
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