Ray Dalio

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  77 71 83

  High confidence, 80 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2010 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

  Not scored: 33 unresolvable, 4 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  72 56 86

  Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2010 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

  Not scored: 41 unresolvable. 3 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.