Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
72 56 86
All types combined: 76 (likely 71 to 82, high confidence), from 91 claims: 80 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Ray Dalio's claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Prediction | 10 Jun 2025 | If current congressional plans go forward, the US federal deficit will be about 7% of GDP. Prediction · 10 Jun 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 25 Oct 2020 | There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020. Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows. Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | Algorithms will become part of people's lives. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Prediction | 17 Sep 2015 | Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Prediction | 17 Sep 2015 | The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Prediction | Jun 2010 | The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Prediction · Jun 2010 | Economics and markets |
“I think you will see greater interest rate cuts as you start to see the world economy starting to slow down.”
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee 16 August 2019 CNBC Transcript: Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates - Part I (CNBC)
Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged over roughly the following 16 months (to end-2020), against rates and market expectations as of mid-August 2019. True: major central banks (the Fed and at least one other major one, such as the ECB, BoE, BoJ or PBoC) cut policy rates further, beyond the July 2019 Fed cut, as the world economy slowed. Mostly true: the Fed alone cut further, or the cuts were small. Mixed: only minor cuts by a few central banks while others held. Mostly false: rates mostly held steady. False: major central banks held or raised rates.
Evidence
- Part 2: Monetary Policy Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 February 2020
“In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the target range for the federal funds rate at its July, September, and October meetings by 25 basis points each, bringing it to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent (figure 47).”
- Part 2: Monetary Policy Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 February 2020
“At its December and January meetings, the Committee judged that the prevailing stance of monetary policy was appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to its symmetric 2 percent objective.”
Reasoning
The Federal Reserve's February 2020 Monetary Policy Report (E1) says the FOMC cut the federal funds rate at its September and October 2019 meetings, as well as in July, citing "global developments" and muted inflation. That shows further Fed cuts beyond the July 2019 cut, linked to the global outlook. E2 says the Fed then held rates at its December and January meetings. None of the evidence covers other major central banks, so cuts elsewhere were not assessed; the evidence establishes only that the Fed cut further, by 25 basis points each in September and October 2019 [E1], which fits the criteria's 'the Fed cut further, or the cuts were small' description of mostly true.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows.” (said 16 August 2019). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_2a1f4d63ba7d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2a1f4d63ba7d
Claims without a verdict
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