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Apr 2024 |
Maybe you can be a little bit less wrong.
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Apr 2024 |
The future of the computer age in the late ’60s was highly centralized, and by the late ’90s was very decentralized.
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Apr 2024 |
In my mind, one other existential risk is a one-world totalitarian government.
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Apr 2024 |
what you really need is really effective global government and really effective policing, and you have to have some global compute…
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Apr 2024 |
Schmitt, in a way, had this optimistic Enlightenment rationality to it
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Apr 2024 |
I’m still in favor of the AI because my default is, muddling through isn’t good.
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Apr 2024 |
I think Strauss was this political philosopher who I wouldn’t describe as Christian, was probably very classical.
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| Mixed |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Thiel said he believed society's bias toward testing math ability began during the French Revolution, because verbal ability was believed to run in families.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Other |
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Apr 2024 |
it’s something like this wonderful and terrible history of the world that we’re living through as Christianity’s unraveling our culture…
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Apr 2024 |
You can't say that you're a greater victim than Christ.
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Apr 2024 |
A force that’s powerful enough to stop the AI is probably a force that’s powerful enough to destroy the world, too
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Apr 2024 |
I’m not a perfect Lutheran.
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Apr 2024 |
So, once you see how satanic the government is, how satanic taxes are, other things besides the governments do, it will have this…
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Apr 2024 |
You can never be right about anything.
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Apr 2024 |
It seems that we’ve gone far more in the peace-and-safety direction than the global-chaos direction.
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Apr 2024 |
the US-China thing hasn’t quite worked the way Fukuyama and all these people envisioned it back in 1989.
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Apr 2024 |
One of the things that I’m still probably a little bit uncomfortable about is that it seems to lead to these incredible returns to scale.
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Five or six years before 2024, Thiel made the argument that if crypto is libertarian, AI is communist.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
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Apr 2024 |
If I were a real Calvinist, we wouldn't even be able to have a conversation here.
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Apr 2024 |
I’m always into these Georgist real estate theories, where if you’re not very careful, all the value in a place gets captured by this…
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Apr 2024 |
So, if we’re going to find a pathway through this apocalyptic age, you have to navigate between the Scylla of all these existential risks…
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Apr 2024 |
I think there’s an intuition that the effective altruists are not just fifth columnists on the part of the CCP
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Apr 2024 |
Basically, the literary version would be that the Antichrist comes to power by constantly talking about Armageddon and constantly telling…
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Apr 2024 |
there’s probably just some kind of a rationality where if you had one modality of governance, if it’s the best that would make for the best…
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Apr 2024 |
You didn't really want to go forward with liberal democracy.
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Apr 2024 |
I think the Luddites — they’ve been wrong for a long time.
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Apr 2024 |
It seems to me that if one were to try to write a novel like this post-1945, it’s very straightforward.
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Apr 2024 |
I think that, in some sense, every moment in history only happens once.
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
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Apr 2024 |
My sense is the FDA has a global stranglehold on everything.
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Apr 2024 |
It would be in the same category as a bank robber or a prostitute, as someone who’s just an extremely corrupt form of crony capitalism.
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Apr 2024 |
We should be deeply distrustful of scapegoating Mr. God for everything like that.
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Apr 2024 |
I don’t think that if we had a one-world state, this would automatically be for the best.
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Apr 2024 |
I would identify communism as the ideology of the Antichrist in the 20th century.
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Apr 2024 |
They’re probably both somehow pretty optimistic about human nature.
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Factual |
Apr 2024 |
It is much harder to exit the United States than it was 20 to 30 years ago.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
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Apr 2024 |
For the most part, I think that it’s just a distraction from more important things.
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Apr 2024 |
That requires some real, real enforcement of this stuff.
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Apr 2024 |
I think it's the first time where the new is simply better than the old just by virtue of being new.
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Apr 2024 |
Maybe the large language models are not really communist.
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Apr 2024 |
I’m not a Calvinist.
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Apr 2024 |
I find that at least as scary as the others.
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Apr 2024 |
I think it probably is still, if you’re just thinking of it as a one-time way to get money outside of the control of a particular…
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Apr 2024 |
There’s a lot of truth to these existential risks.
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Apr 2024 |
China was this low-volatility plan to victory where they were just going to slowly beat the Western world.
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Apr 2024 |
I think of even Ayn Rand as a pretty good Christian in this way.
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Apr 2024 |
I don’t know if I’d say that’s a moral failure, but there was some failure of the imagination.
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Apr 2024 |
It’s a distrust in human agency, a distrust in human thought, a distrust in our ability to make choices.
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Apr 2024 |
I think it’s up to us, but as I said, I’m much more worried about the humans trying to stop the AI than the AI destroying us.
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Apr 2024 |
None of the details matter in Thucydides.
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Apr 2024 |
that is a loser argument, and you shouldn't do this.
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Apr 2024 |
Whenever people think you can just muddle through, you’re probably set up for some kind of disaster.
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Apr 2024 |
I think the Miami story has been more of an anti-New York story.
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Apr 2024 |
I don’t necessarily put too much stock in it because, on its own terms, it’s somewhat unstable.
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Apr 2024 |
You can have utilitarian elements. I don’t think one can ever stress those too much.
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Apr 2024 |
If you’re not supposed to immanentize the eschaton, you’re also not supposed to immanentize the katechon.
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Apr 2024 |
we're often living in this world of hyper-specialization where you can't think about the big picture
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Apr 2024 |
Yes, I would like to have a libertarian world order of many nations, and you can move between them.
Not checkable · Apr 2024 |
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
After 9/11 there was not much terrorism, and instead the US got the Patriot Act, extensive tracking of money flows and monitoring of people.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Other global risks |
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Apr 2024 |
I don’t think the libertarians were critical enough of it the last 20 or 30 years, so there was some way they didn’t believe their own…
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Apr 2024 |
The political orientation I have is, you're never going to solve these things.
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Apr 2024 |
So, it seems plausible to think that he was thinking of himself.
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Apr 2024 |
Well, I think there’s a certain rationality to it.
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| Unresolvable |
Factual |
9 Nov 2022 |
The big U.S. Internet companies had no effective presence in China in 2000, 2005 and 2010, behind the Great Firewall.
Factual · 9 Nov 2022 |
Technology |
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9 Nov 2022 |
I'm not sure it would fully evaporate
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
we almost only talk about the Armageddon stuff
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
the world technology is synonymous with information technology
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
I like both J.D. Vance and Blake Masters because they don't squarely fit into either of those two parties.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
9 Nov 2022 |
Something like a "crazed socialist thing ala Bernie Sanders or AOC" is dead on arrival within the Democratic Party.
Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
9 Nov 2022 |
Without economic growth, the US will not solve political polarization, nihilism and anger.
Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
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9 Nov 2022 |
There is this profound sense that the younger generation will not do better than their parents.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Nov 2022 |
China has about four times the population of the United States.
Factual · 9 Nov 2022 |
Other |
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9 Nov 2022 |
Wahhabism, to Saudi Arabia, is roughly like wokeism to California.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
9 Nov 2022 |
In what he called a speculative prediction, Thiel said the California approach would beat everything within the Democratic Party but would be found shockingly wanting when it reached the country as a whole.
Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 |
Other |
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9 Nov 2022 |
there's something about science and technology that is very dangerous, that feels somewhat like a trap
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
if we say that tech is the oil of the 21st century
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
maybe they're not strictly Marxist, but they are strictly Leninist
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
I worry that if you frame it simply as a conflict between the United States and China.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
I don't think you can go back on science and technology
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
you can't just stop it locally. You have to stop it globally.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
We ended up with, you know, some kind of global super-state.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
9 Nov 2022 |
The US response to China will be helped by China going completely berserk internally.
Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 |
Other |
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9 Nov 2022 |
we had this sort of multifaceted, multidimensional progress in the first half of the 20th century
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
people are far more worried about Armageddon than they're worried about the one-world state
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
so many of these technologies have sort of a very dark, violent, even apocalyptic dimension
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
But there is a way, and there's a lot for us to do there.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
it's a very ragtag Rebel Alliance.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
There's a sense that science and tech are a trap
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
we think we've been in an enchanted forest, but we've been wandering the desert for 40 or 50 years or something like that
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
9 Nov 2022 |
Thiel suggested that, perhaps for structural reasons, once China's economy grows at only 3 or 4% a year with uneven growth, China will become more authoritarian and more totalitarian, "something like that".
Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 |
Other |
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9 Nov 2022 |
it's no wonder that it's a D-plus 30 state
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
I would like them to win on substantive grounds where you don't just have a, you know, a tactical win.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
9 Nov 2022 |
The people Thiel was referring to as "they" would be the first millennial Republican senators.
Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 |
Other |
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9 Nov 2022 |
Maybe it's just structural that China could be moderately free, not completely totalitarian as long as the economy was growing 8% a year
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
there certainly are ways that I would like us to take the challenge of China more seriously
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
It's the big tech companies.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
you can't scale them by a factor of eight to the country as a whole, so it doesn't scale.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
I'm not in favor of tariffs
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
I think the Trump administration was correct that you had to try to do things unilaterally because the multilateral approaches were too slow
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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9 Nov 2022 |
it's led to a world that's extremely nihilistic.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2022 |
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