Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
71 64 78 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 71 (likely 64 to 78, medium confidence), from 55 claims: 55 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Peter Thiel's claims
34 claims
“It’s much harder to exit the United States than it was 20, 30 years ago.”
Peter Thiel, interviewee April 2024 Peter Thiel on Political Theology (Ep. 210) (Conversations with Tyler)
It is much harder to exit the United States than it was 20 to 30 years ago.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Compare legal, tax and administrative barriers to expatriating or renouncing US citizenship in 2024 with those in about 1994–2004. Relevant measures include renunciation fees, the post-2008 mark-to-market exit tax, FATCA and reporting burdens, and appointment backlogs. True: these barriers became substantially greater over the period, for example new or much higher fees and new exit-tax regimes that apply more broadly. Mostly true: barriers clearly increased, but 'much harder' somewhat overstates the size of the change. Mixed: some barriers rose while others fell or stayed the same, so the overall change is unclear. Mostly false: there were only marginal increases. False: exiting is equally easy or easier than 20–30 years ago.
Evidence
- [PDF] Renunciation Comment Alternative - Reginfo.gov Democrats Abroad (comment filed via reginfo.gov)
“Prior to the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) in 2010, renunciation was relatively uncommon and primarily motivated by naturalization in another country that doesn't permit dual nationality. No fees were charged for renunciation at the time.”
- MEMORANDUM AND OPINION re: Defendants' 11 Motion to Dismiss and for Summary Judgment and Plaintiffs' 13 Cross Motion for Partial Summary Judgment. Signed by Judge Tanya S. Chutkan on 2/10/2023. (lcja) US District Court for the District of Columbia (L'Association des Americains Accidentels v. US Department of State) · 10 February 2023
“On August 25, 2015, the State Department finalized the $2,350 Renunciation Fee.”
- Expatriation On or After June 17, 2008 - MTM Tax Regime Internal Revenue Service (LB&I international practice unit, marked DRAFT) · 21 June 2023
“The MTM rules apply only to individuals whose expatriation date is on or after June 17, 2008.”
- MEMORANDUM AND OPINION re: Defendants' 11 Motion to Dismiss and for Summary Judgment and Plaintiffs' 13 Cross Motion for Partial Summary Judgment. Signed by Judge Tanya S. Chutkan on 2/10/2023. (lcja) US District Court for the District of Columbia (L'Association des Americains Accidentels v. US Department of State) · 10 February 2023
“The State Department responded that it had not “restricted or burdened the right of expatriation,” that “the fee is not punitive and is unrelated to the IRS tax legislation,” and that”
Reasoning
E1 says renunciation carried no fee before FATCA in 2010, and a federal court opinion (E2) records that the State Department finalized a $2,350 renunciation fee in 2015. So a large new fee appeared during the period. An IRS practice unit (E3, marked draft) states that the mark-to-market exit-tax rules apply only to expatriations on or after June 17, 2008, so a new exit-tax regime also began in that window. The evidence does not show how this regime compares in breadth with the rules before 2008, or cover appointment backlogs, and E4 records the State Department's view that the fee did not restrict expatriation. Barriers clearly increased, but the evidence does not fully show the "much harder" scale.
Cite this claim
Peter Thiel, “It is much harder to exit the United States than it was 20 to 30 years ago.” (said April 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c3cfce9dfd3e, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c3cfce9dfd3e
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Peter Thiel? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.