Peter Thiel

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  71 64 78

  Medium confidence, 55 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 2007 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 29 candidates found.

  Not scored: 24 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 23 unresolvable. 4 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

All types combined: 71 (likely 64 to 78, medium confidence), from 55 claims: 55 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.