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18 Nov 2024 |
I do believe the effective altruists are winning the argument.
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18 Nov 2024 |
And if you regulated drugs, if you regulated video games like the FDA regulates drugs, we'd still all just be playing Pong.
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18 Nov 2024 |
It was perhaps downstream from Christianity, if the promise of Christianity is a physical resurrection, then science could offer that too.
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18 Nov 2024 |
in some sense, the apocalyptic prophecies are just a prediction of what humans are likely to do.
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18 Nov 2024 |
I think that's the most accelerationist thing possible.
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18 Nov 2024 |
if Greta gets everyone on the planet to ride a bicycle, maybe that's a way to solve climate change, but it has sort of this quality of…
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18 Nov 2024 |
It's timeless, internal, the particulars don't matter, the speeches people give don't matter, Thucydides makes them up.
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18 Nov 2024 |
I think it's on par, let's say, in the computer world, I think it's on par with the Internet in the late 90s.
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18 Nov 2024 |
something like Hegel is just a pale shadow of the Judeo-Christian sense of history.
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Nov 2024 |
People in the 17th and 18th centuries were very optimistic about radical human life extension.
Factual · 18 Nov 2024 |
Technology |
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18 Nov 2024 |
The hyperspecialization disguises a certain type of decadence where you have these narrow experts saying how wonderful they are
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18 Nov 2024 |
I always try to be more on the protect side.
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18 Nov 2024 |
If you go too progressive, you get to something like Marcion or Marx, but if you say it's all in the Old Testament, that's somehow not…
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18 Nov 2024 |
And in some sense, the scary answer is there's some truth to all of them.
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18 Nov 2024 |
But the overarching explanation that I've come to think is a very important one is just this idea that, in some way, science and technology…
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18 Nov 2024 |
atheists and fundamentalists disagree on the secondary and relatively not so important question of whether or not God exists.
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18 Nov 2024 |
you could say that the New Testament God is the first progressive because the new supersedes the old.
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18 Nov 2024 |
So there was this strange return of the mythical in this very in the equations of the physicists.
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18 Nov 2024 |
There are important things that will happen that are different from things that happened in the past.
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18 Nov 2024 |
There's existential risk of bioweapons or dangerously engineered bioweapons, maybe of AI and killer robots or autonomous weapon systems…
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18 Nov 2024 |
If nuclear weapons can rain down fire and brimstone and destroy the world, and then we have a biblical tradition that maybe doesn't say…
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18 Nov 2024 |
One way to quantify this, even if we say the rate of progress in broad fields is the same as it was 100 years ago, not that it's slowed.
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18 Nov 2024 |
And as a libertarian, I always like to say it's too regulated and the FDA regulates the drugs too much.
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18 Nov 2024 |
we will avoid Armageddon by having a one world state that has real teeth, real power.
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18 Nov 2024 |
That there were these apocalyptic risks and maybe going very slow was better than racing towards Armageddon.
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18 Nov 2024 |
It was not the correct protocol for some kind of flu.
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18 Nov 2024 |
it sort of clears the field, it's like the Lord Acton line, all that is necessary for evil to triumph is that good men do nothing.
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18 Nov 2024 |
There are all these parts of our society that feel lame, slow-changing, low energy, low testosterone, nothing is going on.
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18 Nov 2024 |
I've thought for a long time that we need to ask a variety of questions about the larger whole.
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18 Nov 2024 |
Once you get a totalitarian one-world government, you can't reverse it.
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18 Nov 2024 |
there is this pretty inchoate fear, but we're so scared we can't even talk about it cogently.
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| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Nov 2024 |
Thiel said Greta is concerned only with the climate and is not worried about AI or nuclear weapons, much less the COVID virus that he described as bioengineered in the Wuhan lab "or something like this".
Factual · 18 Nov 2024 |
Other global risks |
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18 Nov 2024 |
So you can talk about existential risk and there is existential risk of nuclear war.
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18 Nov 2024 |
And then I do wonder if we were in a Jetsons type world, we might not even be sitting here to talk about it.
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18 Nov 2024 |
There is a argument that the schools aren't teaching people and they're not teaching people to be scientists.
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18 Nov 2024 |
I'm not on the Luddite side.
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18 Nov 2024 |
I always think a lot of what we do is embedded in this physical world of atoms.
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Factual |
18 Nov 2024 |
Thiel said he thinks the classic definition of AI was passing the Turing test, fooling people into thinking it was human 'in some sense', and that ChatGPT passed it in late 2022 or early 2023.
Factual · 18 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
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18 Nov 2024 |
And then there is a strange way that the project in many dimensions feels very exhausted.
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18 Nov 2024 |
somehow the classical approaches to history always downplay the things that are one time unique, world historical, and I think we should…
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18 Nov 2024 |
It's not a pure Benedictine option where you just retreat into a monastery or something like that.
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18 Nov 2024 |
Daniel was the first historian where the things that matter are one time and world historical.
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 Oct 2024 |
There are probably about 100 times as many PhDs today as there were in, say, 1924.
Factual · 8 Oct 2024 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 Oct 2024 |
The average millennial is having a tougher time economically than their boomer parents did at the same point in life.
Factual · 8 Oct 2024 |
Economics and markets |
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Apr 2024 |
In practice, it tends to be US or bust.
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Carl Schmitt became somewhat entangled with the Nazis and later distanced himself from them.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
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Apr 2024 |
I don't think the great books are quite as holy as the Bible
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Apr 2024 |
the Bible takes things from the side of the victim.
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Apr 2024 |
That sounds to me at least as scary as the AI.
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Apr 2024 |
the computer technology information age was trending in this very deeply decentralizing, libertarian way, and that seemed very true in 1999.
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Apr 2024 |
I’m very against it.
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Factual |
Apr 2024 |
The word 'apocalypse' in Greek means 'unveiling'.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Other |
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Apr 2024 |
I would identify the katechon as anti-communism.
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Apr 2024 |
Well, I don’t think it’s a really empirical question.
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Prediction |
Apr 2024 |
AI models will be able to solve all US Math Olympiad problems within three to five years, as people told Thiel.
Prediction · Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Anti-communism was in some ways Peter Thiel's formative political idea as a teenager in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
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Apr 2024 |
I don't think we're ever in a cyclical world
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Apr 2024 |
I’m still hopeful that, on net, Bitcoin is on the anti–one-world-order side just based on all the people who are against it
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Debates about religion in Europe were settled by the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Other |
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Apr 2024 |
The Cain and Abel story is told from the point of view of Abel.
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Apr 2024 |
I don't want to have a blanket rule where you can never say that you weren't a victim.
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Apr 2024 |
it’s striking to me how bad Silicon Valley is at talking about these sorts of things.
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Apr 2024 |
these people, they're much closer to Calvinism.
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Apr 2024 |
there are apocalyptic fears around AI that I think deserve to be taken seriously.
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Apr 2024 |
It’s really unclear how the Antichrist takes over.
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Apr 2024 |
I worry that the only way you can scale things is by somehow automating them, mechanizing them, turning them into more of a cookie…
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Apr 2024 |
I don’t agree with hypothetical questions where I don’t believe in the premise.
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Apr 2024 |
It's so anti-utopian that it's probably helpful in the battle against communism
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Apr 2024 |
in the 1960s, technology meant computers, but it also meant new medicines, and it meant spaceships and supersonic planes and the Green…
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Apr 2024 |
it would be inconceivable that you could murder God in the form of a person.
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Apr 2024 |
there's probably still some part of the Protestant political project that lines up more closely with a libertarian view.
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Apr 2024 |
it’s somehow saying that all the governments are more satanic than divinely ordained.
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Apr 2024 |
By the late 2010s, maybe crypto excepted, it again seemed to be pushing back to centralization.
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Apr 2024 |
I think there is probably a place where I would say yes, Shakespeare would probably be very distrustful of extreme ideological differences…
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Apr 2024 |
In a biblical eschatological context, you’re supposed to worry about Armageddon.
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Apr 2024 |
I don't know if I agree with even one of those five things.
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Apr 2024 |
I don't know if you can have a concept of history that's cyclical.
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Apr 2024 |
I think the Reformation had to come from the outside.
Not checkable · Apr 2024 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
In discussing the katechon, Thiel said the Roman emperor Nero was the proto-Antichrist.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Other |
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Apr 2024 |
if you just tell people the secret messages, it has this unraveling effect.
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Apr 2024 |
I think if you're too progressive, you end up becoming an anti-Semite.
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Apr 2024 |
the answer I submit that they have in common is they're anti-communist, and they have a common enemy.
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Apr 2024 |
My bias is always to focus more on questions of truth.
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Apr 2024 |
there is some way that we have to try to integrate all these different facets of our life to try to make progress
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Apr 2024 |
Well, it's a bit of a fuzzy, broad concept.
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Apr 2024 |
liberalism is exhausted.
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Apr 2024 |
I think it's always a mistake for conservatives or anti-woke people to whitewash it too much.
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Apr 2024 |
My two-word rebuttal to Roman Catholicism is Pope Francis.
Not checkable · Apr 2024 |
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| Mostly true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Peter Thiel said the political slogan of the Antichrist is "peace and safety," citing, he thought, 1 Thessalonians 5:3.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Other |
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Apr 2024 |
Somehow the in-between Christian one, I think, is the most tenable
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Apr 2024 |
I'm still mostly a libertarian, Tyler
Not checkable · Apr 2024 |
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Apr 2024 |
I think one could have figured this out much earlier if we had not been told, “You’re just going to muddle through.”
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Apr 2024 |
It's not really being orchestrated by God.
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Apr 2024 |
I would probably not pay the person who asked me that anything because I would think they were just ripping me off since I hope to live for…
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Apr 2024 |
My intuition is these things are not absolutely written in stone, and it’s up to us to work on making the technologies, having to push it…
Not checkable · Apr 2024 |
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Apr 2024 |
I think that might have been a reasonable compromise in the 18th century.
Not checkable · Apr 2024 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Apr 2024 |
Thiel said his intuition was that AI would seem much worse for math-oriented people than for verbal (word) people.
Prediction · Apr 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
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Not checkable |
Apr 2024 |
From the outside, it was a place where everybody wanted to get in. On the inside was a place everybody wanted to get out.
Not checkable · Apr 2024 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Peter Thiel was extremely influenced by the 1997 book The Sovereign Individual by Rees-Mogg and Davidson.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Factual |
Apr 2024 |
Satan appears in the Bible as seen by humans only at the very end of the world; elsewhere he only talks to God or Christ.
Factual · Apr 2024 |
Other |