ClaimsPeople

Peter Thiel

Peter Thiel is an entrepreneur and venture capitalist who co-founded PayPal and Palantir Technologies and founded Founders Fund.

673 claims collected, 107 researched, 55 resolved. Report of 30 October 2026, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    71 64 78

    Medium confidence, 55 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 2007 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 29 candidates found.

    Not scored: 24 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 23 unresolvable. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 71 (likely 64 to 78, medium confidence), from 55 claims: 55 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Peter Thiel's claims

4 claims

4 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he thinks Javier Milei will be reelected because people understand the stakes. Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel put the chance of a democratic socialist winning the 2028 election at perhaps 50 percent. Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due Prediction Apr 2024 AI models will be able to solve all US Math Olympiad problems within three to five years, as people told Thiel. Prediction · Apr 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 13 Apr 2009 The libertarian future of classic science fiction, as in Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century. Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other global risks
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Peter Thiel

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Prediction Other global risks

“The libertarian future of classic science fiction, à la Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century.”

Peter Thiel, essay author 13 April 2009 The Education of a Libertarian (Cato Unbound)

The libertarian future of classic science fiction, as in Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2050 is after 2026-10-30

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “The libertarian future of classic science fiction, as in Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century.” (said 13 April 2009). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_77f27c1c9e9e, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_77f27c1c9e9e

Claims without a verdict

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