| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
AI engineers will augment the people working on code.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg controls the majority of the voting power at Meta.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg guessed that if AI is open source and widely available, people will all kind of have superpowers, rather than a runaway AI emerging.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Own records only |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Meta added disappearing messages to its messaging products partly for security reasons.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Requiring more confidence for takedowns will dramatically reduce the number of people whose Meta accounts are removed by mistake.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
At every step of human technological progress, people thought the technology being developed would make people obsolete.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Meta put in place a fact-checking program that empowered third-party fact checkers to mark content false, in response to critiques about misinformation.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
If AI is locked down, only big AI companies and the Chinese government (which steals it from them) would have access to it.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Changing Meta's content filters to require higher confidence and precision will reduce the vast majority of Meta's censorship mistakes.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Someone in Pakistan tried to get Zuckerberg sentenced to death, bringing a criminal proceeding over a Facebook picture of the prophet Muhammad.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Meta will go to court against government investigations and win all the cases because it follows the rules.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
After 2016 Zuckerberg gave too much deference to media who said Trump's election was due to misinformation.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
The AR demo Joe Rogan played used version 1 of Meta's neural interface.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Own records only |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Without Apple's rules and fees, Meta would make about twice as much profit, by Zuckerberg's rough calculation.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
It will be a while before brain-interface technology is widely deployed.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg was worried from the beginning about Meta becoming the decider of what is true.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks that while they were pushing the vaccine program, they also tried to censor anyone who was arguing against it.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Meta generally deferred to the government on some policies that Zuckerberg probably would not follow knowing what he knows now.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Over time, a lot of the code in Meta's apps, including its AI, will be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
A single VR player with a haptic suit will not be able to actually kick someone who is not physically there.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Before Meta updated its policies, a statement calling for women to be excluded from certain combat roles could not be posted on its platforms because it called for exclusion of a protected category.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
The number of hours per week people must work to get by will probably continue to shrink.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Apple built a protocol for connecting accessories to the iPhone that is not encrypted (plain text).
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
In the future people will have AI coworkers.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Jiu-jitsu will be the last thing that can be done in VR because it needs the other person's momentum.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg was sympathetic to temporary speech curbs at the beginning of COVID.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said he thought that probably in 2025 Meta and other companies working on AI would have an AI that can effectively act as a mid-level engineer writing code.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
The body has redundant neural pathways to the hand because the ability to use the hand is very important.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
The U.S. government will probably need to help defend American tech companies against foreign governments.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Apple's second and third versions of the Vision Pro will probably be better than the first version.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
People who are highly engaged in their work will accomplish far more than before thanks to the leverage of more technology.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said that there are emails and that the emails have been published.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg communicates with only a few people over SMS, mostly using WhatsApp, Instagram Direct or Messenger.
Factual · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks a whole new class of creators will become the new cultural elites that people look to.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks Meta's current approach will be pretty durable going forward, because the company has been pressure-tested on these issues for about eight to ten years.
Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
During the rewrite, the share of Facebook's traffic that was monetizable shrank as web declined and mobile grew.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he did not know, but that something about the way his company shifted its operations around COVID, when tech companies temporarily went remote, might have played a part.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
18 Sep 2024 |
Meta is close to showing off its first prototype of the full AR glasses.
Promise · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he told Alex Himel, who he described as running the product group, that he thought they should probably pivot the product to make Meta AI its primary feature.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
It will take Meta about another 10 years to fully work through the cycle before its brand recovers to where it might have been.
Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Glasses, holographic presence and AR will become a completely ubiquitous product.
Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
Facebook built the first version of News Feed in 2006, when social networks were basically profiles.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Apple will be Meta's primary competitor, in a competition that goes beyond product to values and ideology.
Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
The mobile rewrite period lasted about a year and a half and was painful for Facebook.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
If all the people in the world who already have glasses upgrade to glasses with AI in them, those glasses will be one of the most successful products in history, and Zuckerberg thinks they will go further than that.
Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks what he was describing will be important for the world and will work over time.
Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
Meta has been working on its AR glasses project for 10 years.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he now thinks full-scale AI will probably become available before AR holograms.
Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
Google was the first of the great companies to build this kind of distributed computing infrastructure, and kept it proprietary.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Sep 2024 |
Before 2016, sentiment about Facebook was positive in every month except perhaps around its IPO period.
Factual · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
Meta is building internal teams to enable developers and partners to use Llama and is actively building partnerships with ecosystem companies.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he believes AI will develop in a way similar to Linux, which became the industry standard foundation, adding that open source is quickly closing the gap with leading closed models.
Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
As of July 2024, several tech companies are developing leading closed AI models.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
Zuckerberg said that one of his formative experiences has been building Meta's services constrained by what Apple allows on its platforms.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
Developers can run inference on Llama 3.1 405B on their own infrastructure at roughly 50% the cost of using closed models like GPT-4o, for both user-facing and offline inference tasks.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
Meta has saved billions of dollars by releasing its server, network and data center designs via the Open Compute Project and having supply chains standardize on them.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
Meta manages security on its social networks using more robust AI systems that identify and stop threats from less sophisticated actors, who often use smaller-scale AI systems.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mixed |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
Llama is already leading on openness, modifiability, and cost efficiency.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
In Zuckerberg's view, closing AI models to keep them from China will not work and will only disadvantage the US and its allies.
Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Because Llama 3.1 405B is open, it will be the best choice for fine-tuning and distilling smaller models.
Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
In 2024, Llama 3 is competitive with the most advanced models and leading in some areas.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks governments will conclude it is in their interest to support open source because it will make the world more prosperous and safer.
Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
In Zuckerberg's view, open source AI will be safer than the alternatives.
Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
It is well-accepted that open source software tends to be more secure because it is developed more transparently.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
23 Jul 2024 |
Linux is the industry standard foundation for cloud computing and for the operating systems running most mobile devices.
Factual · 23 Jul 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Meta expects that, starting in 2025, future Llama models will become the most advanced AI models in the industry.
Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he believes the Llama 3.1 release will be an inflection point in the industry where most developers begin to primarily use open source, and that he expects this approach to keep growing.
Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta is training three Llama 3 versions: 8B and 70B parameter models, released that day, and a 405B dense model still in training.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
AI model scaling is likely enough to keep going that investing tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure is worth it, on the assumption that it continues.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
A 70B model trained with the Llama-3 architecture can keep improving with more data.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
With unconnected content recommendations, Meta's pool of candidate content expanded from thousands to hundreds of millions.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks Meta had the extra GPU capacity because it was working on Reels.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta concluded it must solve general intelligence and increased its investment to do so.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Zuckerberg decided Meta should order enough GPUs for Reels and ranking needs, plus double that amount.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta's ratio of inference compute to training compute is probably much higher than most other AI companies.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Feeding the Llama 3 model more tokens would probably have made it somewhat better.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta started Facebook AI Research (FAIR) about 10 years before 2024.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
A runaway AI intelligence scenario is not particularly likely.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year).
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta AI now generates high-quality images fast enough to generate and update them in real time as the user types.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta's whole GPU fleet is the roughly 350,000 GPUs the interviewer cited as planned by end of year.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta believes Meta AI is now the most intelligent, freely available AI assistant people can use.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
Many people will use off-the-shelf open models, while some bad-faith actors will try to strip out safeguards.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta spends a lot of time trying to make sure Llama-2 does not help people commit violent acts or things like that.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Promise |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta has a roadmap of new Llama releases bringing multimodality, more multilinguality and bigger context windows.
Promise · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Own records only |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
There are about 200 million creators on Meta's platforms.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta did not prioritize coding when working on Llama 2.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
AI is unlikely to go from somewhat intelligent to extremely intelligent overnight because of physical constraints.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
ChatGPT and image diffusion models will clearly affect how people interact with every app.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks AI will probably surpass people at most skills at some point, depending on how powerful the models are.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
People will not interact with just one singular AI; each business will want its own AI representing its interests.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
18 Apr 2024 |
Meta has identified about 18 or 19 categories of harmful activity on social media and built AI systems to detect them.
Factual · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2024 |
AI scaling will run into energy constraints before capital investment stops being worth it.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Own records only |
Factual |
28 Sep 2023 |
Llama 2 has received more downloads and usage than Zuckerberg expected, even though he was optimistic.
Factual · 28 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
28 Sep 2023 |
Meta has progressed on hand recognition further and faster than Zuckerberg expected.
Factual · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Own records only |
Factual |
28 Sep 2023 |
As of September 2023, Meta was not close to open sourcing its next foundation model that month and was still somewhat early in working on it.
Factual · 28 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks there will be uses for both expressive and photorealistic avatars over time, and added that he does not know what the balance between them will be.
Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
28 Sep 2023 |
Meta is building a platform called AI Studio that will, over time, let anyone create AI characters like other user-generated content.
Promise · 28 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks that, maybe by the end of this decade, people could walk into a room and see as many holograms as physical objects.
Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he does not think people will work with a single AI in the future, and that he thinks people will want a variety of AIs.
Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
AI capabilities |