Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 69 82 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
56 42 70 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 4 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 72 (likely 66 to 78, high confidence), from 93 claims: 76 factual claims, 17 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Dario Amodei's claims
1 claim
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not yet due | Promise | 18 Feb 2025 | Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027. Promise · 18 Feb 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
“Anthropic is doubling down on interpretability, and we have a goal of getting to “interpretability can reliably detect most model problems” by 2027.”
Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, writing on his own site 18 February 2025 The Urgency of Interpretability (darioamodei.com)
Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
deadline 2027 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027.” (said 18 February 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_0940ba58bcfd, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0940ba58bcfd
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 157
- Not yet due 40
- Own records only 43
- Not researched 134
- Not checkable 864
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