Dario Amodei

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  76 69 82

  High confidence, 76 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2015 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

  Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 42 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  56 42 70

  Medium confidence, 17 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

  Not scored: 103 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 39 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

• Promises

  Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

  Insufficient record: 4 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 3 unresolvable, 1 not yet due.

  See the promises

All types combined: 72 (likely 66 to 78, high confidence), from 93 claims: 76 factual claims, 17 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.