Dario Amodei

Factual · AI safety and alignment

“They're not yet at the stage where we think that there is a real and meaningful increase in the threat end to end,”

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, interviewed · 28 February 2025 · Hard Fork - Anthropic's C.E.O. Dario Amodei on Surviving the A.I. Endgame Transcript (Podscripts (Hard Fork))

Anthropic assessed that Claude 3.7 Sonnet is not yet at a stage giving a real and meaningful end-to-end increase in dangerous threat capability.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Anthropic's official Claude 3.7 Sonnet system card or RSP capability assessment (Feb 2025) concludes that the model does not meaningfully increase end-to-end dangerous-threat capability (e.g., it does not need ASL-3 protections for CBRN/catastrophic uplift) while it may show some partial uplift. Mostly true: Anthropic assessed it as below the threshold, with minor wording differences (e.g., 'cannot rule out' language or a precautionary note). Mixed: Anthropic's assessment was inconclusive or found meaningful uplift in some threat domains but not others. Mostly false: Anthropic's documents show it found meaningful uplift but chose not to apply higher safeguards for other reasons. False: Anthropic's assessment concluded that Claude 3.7 Sonnet did provide a real, meaningful end-to-end increase in threat capability (e.g., designated it ASL-3).

Evidence

1. Claude 3.7 Sonnet System Card - www-cdn.anthropic.com Anthropic Own record

   “Based on our assessments, we’ve concluded that Claude 3.7 Sonnet is released under the ASL-2 standard.”

2. Claude 3.7 Sonnet System Card - www-cdn.anthropic.com Anthropic Own record

   “Altogether, we believe that Claude 3.7 Sonnet continues to be sufficiently far away from the ASL-3 capability thresholds, and therefore, we find that ASL-2 safeguards remain appropriate. However, the results from our evaluations suggest improved performance in all domains, including some uplift in CBRN evaluations.”

3. Claude 3.7 Sonnet System Card - www-cdn.anthropic.com Anthropic Own record

   “Under the most conservative approach to evaluation scoring, Claude 3.7 Sonnet achieved a score of 69.7% on this evaluation, suggesting that while this evaluation alone cannot conclusively rule out ASL-3, it cannot conclusively rule it in either.”

4. Claude 3.7 Sonnet System Card - www-cdn.anthropic.com Anthropic Own record

   “Consistent with our RSP, the RSO and CEO made the ultimate determination on the model’s ASL.”

Reasoning

The Claude 3.7 Sonnet System Card states the model was released under the ASL-2 standard, a determination made by the RSO and CEO (E1, E4). It concludes the model "continues to be sufficiently far away from the ASL-3 capability thresholds," while noting improved performance and some uplift in CBRN evaluations (E2), which matches the true criterion of no meaningful end-to-end uplift alongside partial uplift. One evaluation was inconclusive on its own (E3), but the overall conclusion is stated firmly.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Anthropic assessed that Claude 3.7 Sonnet is not yet at a stage giving a real and meaningful end-to-end increase in dangerous threat capability.” (said 28 February 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_7e1a7071c18d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7e1a7071c18d