| Mostly true |
Jensen Huang | Prediction |
1 Jun 2026 |
Adobe has re-engineered the core of Photoshop and Premiere and will release it for RTX Spark.
Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
28 Feb 2026 |
Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Prediction |
9 Aug 2025 |
After GPT-5 launches there will be another big spike in demand that OpenAI will not be able to serve.
Sam Altman · Prediction · 9 Aug 2025 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
27 Jul 2025 |
Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
27 Jul 2025 |
GPT-5 will be considerably better than GPT-4.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
10 Jun 2025 |
If current congressional plans go forward, the US federal deficit will be about 7% of GDP.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 10 Jun 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
10 Mar 2025 |
Anthropic's models may reach AI Safety Level 3 in 2025.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
28 Feb 2025 |
In the short run (about 6 to 12 months), AI will augment and increase coders' productivity rather than replace them.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Changing Meta's content filters to require higher confidence and precision will reduce the vast majority of Meta's censorship mistakes.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
A large-scale cyberattack in which generative AI plays an important causal role may well occur in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
OpenAI's Sora will continue to have trouble with physics in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Prediction |
21 Dec 2024 |
On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.
Sam Altman · Prediction · 21 Dec 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei guessed that by about November 2025, AI models would be able to perform computer-use tasks very, very reliably.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
13 Aug 2024 |
Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 13 Aug 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
4 May 2024 |
Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
31 Mar 2024 |
Marcus doubted that a mindblowing GPT model would be released in 2024.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
31 Mar 2024 |
GPT-5 is likely to be even more expensive to train and operate than GPT-4.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 31 Mar 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
8 Mar 2024 |
Search engines will increasingly be replaced by dialogue systems that answer questions and perhaps point to appropriate references.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
28 Sep 2023 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks Quest 3 is going to be the first mixed reality device that millions of people get.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
AI models will not have enough autonomy within two years to raise alignment concerns, though that may not be far behind.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
20 Feb 2023 |
Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
Feb 2023 |
Yudkowsky said he felt quite confident that the upper range of the untapped potential of ChatGPT-style systems is insufficient to outsmart all living humans and carry out the catastrophe scenario he worries about.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · Feb 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
26 Jan 2023 |
If 2023 has no major supply chain interruption, Tesla has the potential to produce 2 million cars in 2023.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla thinks demand for its vehicles will be good despite a probable contraction in the overall automotive market.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2023 |
Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2023 |
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will still be reckless and hard to control, making a significant number of stupid errors.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4's natural language output still won't be reliably usable as input to downstream programs such as databases or virtual assistants.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will not be trustworthy and complete enough to give reliable medical advice.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will be a very large, powerful system (a 'monster').
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
With GPT-4, fluent hallucinations will still be common and easily induced, escalating the risk of LLMs being used to create misinformation.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 may be better at faking term papers, but if it follows the same playbook as its predecessors, it still won't really understand the world, and its flaws will eventually show.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will blow people's minds when released.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
Marcus suspected that GPT-4's release would follow a pattern of immense buzz, then scientific scrutiny, then recognition that many problems remain.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
If GPT-4 is architecturally essentially the same as GPT-3, it can be expected to be unable to construct internal models of how the world works and, in consequence, unable to understand things at an abstract level.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
AI alignment between human wants and machine behavior will remain a critical unsolved problem, with GPT-4 unable to reliably follow shared human values.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will remain a pastiche generator and useful for brainstorming and first drafts, but not trustworthy general intelligence.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
2022 |
Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Daniela Amodei | Prediction |
2022 |
She said she hoped, and thought, that in the next few years the AI industry would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like.
Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
29 Dec 2021 |
The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
29 Dec 2021 |
The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
29 Jun 2021 |
It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 29 Jun 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
25 Oct 2020 |
There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Prediction |
30 Apr 2020 |
Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2020 will show consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across its cloud offerings.
Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
31 Mar 2020 |
Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Mar 2020 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
29 Mar 2020 |
The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Mar 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
28 Mar 2020 |
The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
2020 will establish a lasting new normal, as World War Two did for women in the workforce.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
13 Mar 2020 |
Work-from-home tools such as home office chat will get really good as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2020 |
By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2020 |
It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2020 |
U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
25 Sep 2019 |
Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
23 Sep 2019 |
Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Sep 2019 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
16 Aug 2019 |
Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
13 May 2019 |
The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 13 May 2019 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Prediction |
5 Jan 2019 |
By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry.
Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
2019 |
Usage of graph neural networks will increase for a wide variety of applications likely to violate the assumptions of current deep learning hardware.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
2019 |
As DL is used for high-level cognitive tasks, memory modules will become commonplace and very large, requiring hardware support.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
15 Feb 2018 |
Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
15 Feb 2018 |
The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
12 Sep 2017 |
The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
12 Sep 2017 |
Algorithms will become part of people's lives.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
27 Feb 2017 |
Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
6 Jan 2017 |
No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
6 Jan 2017 |
Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Ørsted | Prediction |
2017 |
With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever.
Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2017 |
Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war).
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
18 Feb 2015 |
Natural language understanding will be the next frontier for Deep Learning.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Prediction |
2015 |
If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.
Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
5 May 2014 |
Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · 5 May 2014 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Apr 2011 |
Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jul 2010 |
Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Prediction |
2010 |
In the next decade, a major challenge of computer vision, machine learning and AI will be devising methods that learn good feature hierarchies from unlabeled and labeled data in an integrated fashion.
Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Oct 2009 |
Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2008 |
Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction |
2008 |
Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Prediction |
28 Sep 2007 |
Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price.
Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Prediction |
28 Sep 2007 |
Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them.
Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Prediction |
28 Sep 2007 |
Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically.
Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Apr 2007 |
Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 |
Economics and markets |