Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

41 claims

41 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2026 Tesla hopes to get European regulatory approval for supervised full self-driving in February 2026. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2026 Technology
Mostly false Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 30 Dec 2024 The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election. Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Amodei said that, after progress from 3% to 50% on SWE-bench in 10 months, state-of-the-art models would probably be at about 90% in another year, while adding that he did not know and it might be less. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 27 Oct 2023 US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mostly false Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction 2 Sep 2023 The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Hardware 3 will far exceed the safety of the average human driver, though not be as good as Hardware 4. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 By 2024, people in the US will have to use a VPN because of ISP-level internet filtering and censorship. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Exponential-outlook views of the economy will prevail gradually over the next several years, producing a strong continuing updraft for the stock market. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Dario Amodei

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Prediction AI capabilities

“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, on X 23 September 2026 Post by @DarioAmodei on X, 2026-09-23 (X)

Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge the substance of the stated belief as of 2026-09-23: is AI capability on biology tasks improving on an exponential (compounding, roughly constant-doubling) trend comparable to the one Amodei described for AI in mathematics? Speaker hedging ('we believe') is noted, but the test is the trend itself. TRUE: benchmark time series, capability-tracking studies or expert assessments from around the statement date show AI performance on biology tasks (for example protein/structure prediction, biology QA or lab-protocol benchmarks, autonomous research tasks) rising at a compounding rate broadly comparable to the cited math trend. MOSTLY TRUE: the evidence shows clear compounding improvement in biology, but at a noticeably slower or less clean rate than math, or across only some major biology task families. MIXED: the evidence is split, with exponential-looking progress on some biology measures and flat or linear progress on others in roughly equal weight. MOSTLY FALSE: biology AI is improving, but the evidence shows no exponential trend comparable to math, or the claim rests on a narrow benchmark presented as the whole field, or no data establishes such a trend. FALSE: the evidence shows biology AI capability stalling or improving only marginally over the relevant period.

Evidence

  1. Overall trends SecureBio
    “Capabilities are rising over time, in both general biology and the biosecurity-relevant areas tested.”
  2. Overall trends SecureBio
    “Companies that have added chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) safeguards have published models that deliberately decline to answer many biology questions, pulling their scores below the upward trend.”
  3. Frontier AI Trends Report by The AI Security Institute (AISI) UK AI Security Institute
    “At the beginning of 2024, for the first time, models performed better than experts (biology PhDs) on our open-ended biology questions. Since then, we have observed continuous improvements on these question sets.”
  4. Introducing GeneBench-Pro OpenAI · 30 June 2026
    “That is a sharp increase from when we began building the original GeneBench; at that time, our best frontier model, GPT‑5, scored below 5%.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows biology AI capability rising. SecureBio reports capabilities rising over time in general biology and biosecurity-relevant areas (E1), the UK AI Security Institute reports continuous improvement since models passed biology PhD experts in early 2024 (E3), and OpenAI reports a sharp rise on GeneBench-Pro (E4). However, none of these sources gives a doubling time or an exponential fit for biology. E4 compares a single benchmark result against one earlier figure, and E2 notes that refusals under CBRN safeguards pull some models' scores below the upward trend. The criteria say mostly false when biology AI is improving but no data establishes an exponential trend comparable to the one cited for math, and that is what this evidence shows.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.” (said 23 September 2026). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_6e5260655f16, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6e5260655f16

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.