Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

32 claims

32 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mixed Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Mixed Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 10 Jan 2025 Requiring more confidence for takedowns will dramatically reduce the number of people whose Meta accounts are removed by mistake. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction Aug 2024 Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle's limited-time Smoked Brisket launch starting in September 2024 should further improve sales trends. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 5 Mar 2024 If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 5 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Mixed Satya Nadella Prediction 15 Nov 2023 Nadella said he hoped calendar year 2024 would be the year of classic commercial enterprise deployment and deployment data for AI Copilots. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 15 Nov 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Gary Marcus Prediction 26 Oct 2023 With more than 60 elections around the world in 2024, the chance that at least one would be swayed by deepfakes is high. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 26 Oct 2023 Other global risks
Mixed Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Marc Andreessen Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 He said he feared that, if vaccines were rolled out and enough Americans took them, by 2023 or 2024 people would be spoiling for a fight with China as the one legitimated enemy. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Other global risks
Mixed Bill Gates Prediction Feb 2021 New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially. Bill Gates · Prediction · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Technology
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction 16 Nov 2020 Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Mar 2020 When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mixed Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 15 Oct 2018 Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 Technology
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 2016 A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component. Elon Musk · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
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Nate Silver

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

Nate Silver, podcast co-host 8 April 2025 Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs (Risky Business) (iHeart)

Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

What would count as true or false

Judge at a one-year horizon (by April 2026) using US consumer price data for toys. Use the BLS CPI 'toys' index, or an equivalent retail toy price measure, compared with March/April 2025. True: toy prices rose substantially, at least about 10%, and analyses tie the rise to tariffs on imports from Asian producers such as China and Vietnam. Mostly true: a clear tariff-linked rise of about 6-10%. Mixed: a modest rise of about 3-6%, or a large rise only in some product segments. Mostly false: the rise is little above normal inflation (under about 3%). False: toy prices were flat or fell.

Evidence

  1. Table Data - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Toys in U.S. City Average FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (BLS source data) · 14 October 2026
    “| 2025-03-01 | 27.478 | | 2025-04-01 | 27.513 |”
  2. Table Data - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Toys in U.S. City Average FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (BLS source data) · 14 October 2026
    “| 2026-04-01 | 28.393 |”
  3. Toys are facing their biggest price spike in years. Mom-and-pop toy stores tell us how they're getting by. Yahoo Finance (Business Insider) · 26 October 2026
    “Toy prices have gone up 8.3% since February due to tariffs, geopolitics, and supply chain issues.”
  4. The Slow Climb: How Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS Notes) · 5 March 2026
    “tariff pass-through to consumers between April 2025 and December 2025 has been at least 30% for goods imported from China.”

Reasoning

The BLS toys CPI (not seasonally adjusted) stood at 27.478 in March 2025 and 27.513 in April 2025 [E1], and at 28.393 in April 2026 [E2]. That is a rise of about 3.2–3.3% over the one-year horizon, which falls in the criteria's 'modest rise of about 3-6%' band. A Federal Reserve note finds substantial tariff pass-through for goods from China, though not for toys specifically [E4]. The 8.3% figure in E3 is measured 'since February' and published in October 2026, so it does not clearly cover the April 2025–April 2026 window.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.” (said 8 April 2025). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_5b8ca1332878, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5b8ca1332878

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.