Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

1,760 claims · page 1 of 18

1,760 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 27 Oct 2026 When AI composes thousands of symphonies, human demand to attend live acoustic performances will multiply exponentially. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 27 Oct 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 27 Oct 2026 As AI becomes ubiquitous, the physical world and offline connections will increase in value and become the most luxurious commodities. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 27 Oct 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 27 Oct 2026 Burry said he thinks LLMs are already being used more efficiently and that this trend will continue, to the detriment of their growth rate. Michael Burry · Prediction · 27 Oct 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Nate Silver Prediction 23 Oct 2026 Silver advised against betting that the pattern of Democratic Senate candidates doing surprisingly well in traditionally red states and less well in bluer states would change dramatically in the final days before the 2026 election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 21 Oct 2026 Without appropriate safeguards and release structures, AI cyber capabilities could be exploited to carry out large-scale attacks. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 21 Oct 2026 Other global risks
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 21 Oct 2026 The same AI intelligence that powers protein binder discoveries could be used by malicious actors to engineer biological weapons. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 21 Oct 2026 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 21 Oct 2026 Anthropic hopes that, through the share set-aside, co-founders' 80% equity pledges and matched employee pledges, about 20% of its shares will be put toward the public good. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 21 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 8 Oct 2026 With lighter AI regulation, people will do orders of magnitude more good than bad with AI. Sam Altman · Prediction · 8 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 7 Oct 2026 Intelligence may show diminishing returns as AI scales, rather than growing without limit. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 7 Oct 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 7 Oct 2026 Pinker said he suspects that an AI system pursuing a laudable goal will not deliberately kill or harm a person as an unforeseen sub-goal of that goal. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 7 Oct 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 7 Oct 2026 Pinker suspects that robots able to ride mountain bikes will be specially engineered for it, and that ChatGPT will not be able to ride a mountain bike anytime soon, if ever. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 7 Oct 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 1 Oct 2026 Ackman said he thinks "we" can build a really profitable insurance company, starting at a very small scale. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction Oct 2026 Political and policy-driven risks to the global economic outlook are less likely than the benign baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Oct 2026 Other global risks
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 Gaps in the global supply of family planning products are large and growing, and GiveWell expects its funding to make more contraceptives available to people who want them. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 The programs GiveWell funded with 2025 donations will save about 86,000 lives in total. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel expects that, without progress, extreme parties on the right and left will keep gaining ground. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 AI may turn out to be bigger than the internet in its economic impact. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Sep 2026 If the OpenAI situation gets worse, Trump will own the mess. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Friedrich Merz may remain in office because others do not think they can do better. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 In theory, AI could be slowed through deep worldwide cooperation, but that would require a world government with real power. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Sep 2026 If Jensen Huang keeps sticking to his line despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, his reputation will rapidly diminish. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 Dario Amodei said he believes the field is at the very beginning of finding such RT systems and developing them into powerful tools for biotechnology. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 Eventually Claude may be able to safely perform experiments itself by autonomously controlling lab equipment, which Anthropic is not doing today. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 23 Sep 2026 If AI-driven biological discovery succeeds, it could greatly increase the number of promising drug candidates entering the pipeline without shortening clinical trial times. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Muse will be able to make people money and save people money. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Any specific rigid AI regulatory framework put in place is very likely to be insufficient or out of date within a few months. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 The product he called "this thing" will pay for itself by making users money and saving them money. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 A small number of labs will not be permitted to control AI and accumulate large wealth for themselves; AI has to be broad-based. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 The primary purpose of AI will be the invention of new things, not automation. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg said he was very hopeful that the settlement would serve as a sort of legally binding framework to bring the whole industry into alignment on some of these things. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg said he thinks there is no way another company will be able to take an off-the-shelf model, post-train it a little and get something as good as a model designed from the ground up with data put into pre-training. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Zuckerberg said he thinks that once the product he was discussing is running well, Meta will be able to get it in front of many hundreds of millions of people and eventually billions. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 15 Sep 2026 Muse and Meta AI may converge over time. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 15 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 If AI is built in the wrong way, the probability of something bad happening is very high. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 If left unchecked, AI's ability to improve itself and build the next generation of AI could outrun humans' ability to understand and control these systems. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 International cooperation to put a speed limit on AI progress will be very difficult because incentives and military advantage are so large. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 If AI is built in the right way, the probability of something bad happening is very low. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Sep 2026 This AI technology will be built in other countries, including authoritarian countries. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 AI compute will keep becoming vastly more efficient, with better chips and smarter algorithms, though it will still require huge investment. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Altman said he thinks some things are going to go very wrong with cybersecurity unless people act quite urgently. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Even with large efficiency gains, much more AI infrastructure will need to be built to avoid AI being a highly priced commodity. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Altman said he thinks this, speaking while describing OpenAI's new model and what people can now do with AI, will be the greatest boom in entrepreneurship and small business creation the world has ever seen. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 As AI advances, people's jobs, defined by purpose, context and meaning, will not change. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 AI will not eliminate all jobs. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction Sep 2026 The AI bubble may burst sooner rather than later. Michael Burry · Prediction · Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction Sep 2026 If AI spending stops or slows, the AI trade will come apart. Michael Burry · Prediction · Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 29 Aug 2026 People will reach a point where they no longer buy things themselves, relying on personal AI agents instead. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Aug 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 29 Aug 2026 If society does not step up on managing AI, the negative effects of AI will substantially outweigh the positives. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 26 Aug 2026 The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history, even under the best circumstances. Bill Gates · Prediction · 26 Aug 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 26 Aug 2026 As AI models become more powerful, they could begin to act against human interests and humans could lose control. Bill Gates · Prediction · 26 Aug 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 26 Aug 2026 Gates does not think a global slowdown of AI advances will happen, because geopolitical and economic incentives are pushing too hard to go full speed ahead. Bill Gates · Prediction · 26 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square's portfolio's higher EPS growth and lower valuation than the S&P 500 should increase the likelihood its performance exceeds the S&P 500 over the long term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement says "we believe" that neither of two concerns, the long-term impact of AI on ICE's two smaller segments and the competitive threat of perpetual futures to its Exchanges, is likely to impair ICE's earnings power or intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 If routing legislation were enacted, it would have a minimal impact on Visa and Mastercard. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement expresses a belief that these tailwinds should enable Microsoft to sustain its high-teens historical earnings growth over the long term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global's future earnings growth will be almost exclusively determined by its benchmark businesses rather than Market Intelligence. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The quote states an expectation that Alcon's operating margin, described as currently 20%, will rise to 25% or greater over the next several years. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global Indices has a long runway for continued double-digit growth. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global earnings are likely to compound in the low-to-mid teens, driving an annualized return in the mid-20s% if its valuation returns to an appropriate level. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square believes its portfolio companies will ultimately deliver strong EPS growth and a substantial increase in the valuations investors assign to them. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Ackman says "we are confident" that perpetual futures hold little if any appeal for institutional investors, who he says drive over about 95% of ICE's trading volume. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Restaurant Brands (QSR) high-single-digit operating profit growth, leverage and buybacks should deliver a mid-teens total return. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Agentic commerce is more likely to expand the payments ecosystem than to erode the card networks' moats. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Bill Ackman stated a belief that a favorable macro backdrop and powerful secular tailwinds should enable ICE to achieve low-to-mid-teens earnings growth, which, combined with a multiple re-rating toward year-ago levels, creates the potential for an annualized stock return in the mid-20s%. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Bill Ackman's side said that, if they are correct that Vantage can earn significantly higher returns on capital than HHH's historical real estate business by putting HHH's excess real estate cash flows into insurance, they expect Vantage to become the substantial majority of HHH's business over the coming years. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square estimates that its projected investment returns will be higher than returns implied by its portfolio companies' underlying EPS growth. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square says its current holdings trade at discounted multiples significantly below where it expects them to trade over the intermediate and long term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The Trump administration will have ample time to deliver on its Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac promises, and the shares will be worth many times today's prices once it does. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square expects its six new investments to be material contributors to its future investment performance. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement says that AI may eventually exert price or volume pressure on a relatively small percentage of S&P Global's Market Intelligence revenues, and expresses the belief that this will be offset by growing demand for high-quality proprietary and curated data. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement says the speaker's side believes Amazon can compound earnings at a 20%-plus rate longer term. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Musk's companies would do very well for several years without him. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Elon Musk guessed that China's electricity production will reach about four times that of the U.S., which he said is roughly in proportion to population. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Other
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Elon Musk said he thinks that in the future taxation becomes somewhat irrelevant. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 AI will become better than 99% of professional software engineers at writing software. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 The AI robotics revolution will happen sooner than a civil war in Britain. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 AI will be able to do any job better than any person can do that job. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 The most likely outcome of advanced AI is an age of abundance where anyone can have anything they can think of. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Ukraine will not retake the territories held by Russia. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Other global risks
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Elon Musk said he thinks work is going to be optional. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Musk said he thinks SpaceX's spending on bases on the moon and Mars would ultimately have a very high return on investment, though it would cost a lot of money in the short term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Other global risks
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Elon Musk predicted that deflation, not inflation, will be the issue, because the output of goods and services will grow faster than the money supply. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Long-term growth of people who do not share, or in some cases are adamantly opposed to, Western values sets a country up for civil war. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Other global risks
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 She said nobody knows, but her guess is that software developers will still exist, though they will not write as much code. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 She said she thinks the share of software developers' non-coding work (such as talking to product managers and customers) will expand, while work that can be more easily done by AI will contract. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 Claude's ability to help overwhelmed parents will be really powerful. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 AI-driven job displacement will become a social and political issue. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 As AI does more day-to-day productive work, human interpersonal skills will become much more important and prized. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 AI is going to get really good at the work being discussed. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 Daniela Amodei said that she and her colleagues think artificial intelligence will create a lot of economic value. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 29 Jun 2026 AI will change which types of jobs are available and what jobs people do. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jun 2026 The biggest value proposition of a Windows machine in the enterprise will be unmetered intelligence. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jun 2026 OpenAI may go public and become a trillion-dollar company. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jun 2026 In future, firms will have both human capital and token capital, and will need their own hill-climbing machine for the token capital. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jun 2026 Licensing MAI models through Microsoft Foundry will grow Foundry revenue. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 4 Jun 2026 She guessed that over time the core companies advancing the AI frontier will need access to capital, and said she thinks public markets are very well suited to that. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Prediction 4 Jun 2026 She expects current AI use cases such as coding, financial services, legal and health care to continue to be the primary driver of efficiency or creativity. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jun 2026 Once software is priced by consumption, customers will optimize their usage. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 2 Jun 2026 AI companies will overpay for their investments relative to the modest profits they will make in an intensely competitive market. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 2 Jun 2026 How people think about the personal computer will very likely change. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 Technology
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Daniela Amodei

Open its page

Prediction Philosophy, ethics and society

“When AI composes thousands of symphonies, humanity's craving to attend live acoustic performances will multiply exponentially.”

Daniela Amodei, Anthropic president, interviewed 27 October 2026 Podcast Notes (Daniela Amodei with Arianna Huffington) (TechFlow)

When AI composes thousands of symphonies, human demand to attend live acoustic performances will multiply exponentially.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

The prediction has no horizon, and its terms ("multiply exponentially") cannot be measured.

Cite this claim

Daniela Amodei, “When AI composes thousands of symphonies, human demand to attend live acoustic performances will multiply exponentially.” (said 27 October 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5bd4a35b70b9, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5bd4a35b70b9

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.