Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

13 claims

13 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he thinks Javier Milei will be reelected because people understand the stakes. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel put the chance of a democratic socialist winning the 2028 election at perhaps 50 percent. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due Ray Dalio Prediction 9 May 2026 Republicans will probably lose control of the US House in the 2026 midterm elections. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 24 Mar 2026 Khosla said he believes fear of AI will be the single biggest issue in the 2028 US presidential election. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Tyler Cowen Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Cowen said he thinks that within ten years the US will be bidding for immigrants, be much more selective, use more market mechanisms and use immigration to raise revenue. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In the 2026 US midterm elections, AI will be an election issue for the first time. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Nov 2025 In the 2028 US election, the blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) sides will align against tech. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Nov 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 12 May 2025 Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 12 May 2025 If Democrats win three of the four named Senate races plus the presidency, they would probably have a trifecta in 2028. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Congress would ultimately need two-thirds majorities to stop the tariffs because Trump has threatened a veto, and Silver said he believed Trump would follow through on those threats. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Silver said he did not think getting 60 votes in the Senate on measures against Trump's tariffs, enough to overcome a filibuster, would be so hard. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 In April 2025, Silver said that at that point he would consider Democrats a little over 50% likely to retake the White House in 2028. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Trump's tariffs could be rescinded at any time, if not now then after the 2026 midterms or after the 2028 election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
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Peter Thiel

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Prediction Other Political

“I still think he will be reelected because people understand the stakes.”

Peter Thiel, interviewee 25 September 2026 Peter Thiel interview: AI, Europe, Trump, democracy and longevity (Hvylya)

Thiel said he thinks Javier Milei will be reelected because people understand the stakes.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

Milei's next election is scheduled for 2027, so reelection can't be known yet.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “Thiel said he thinks Javier Milei will be reelected because people understand the stakes.” (said 25 September 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_16ce0726bf2b, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_16ce0726bf2b

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.