Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

973 claims · page 9 of 10

973 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual 2016 The AI supercomputer Huang delivered to Elon Musk and OpenAI in 2016 was the first of its kind Nvidia ever shipped. Jensen Huang · Factual · 2016 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 17 Sep 2015 Interest rates are going to zero. Ray Dalio · Factual · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 27 May 2015 Deep learning methods have dramatically improved the state of the art in speech recognition, visual object recognition and object detection. Yann LeCun · Factual · 27 May 2015 AI capabilities
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The real mean of war casualties calculated by the dual method is considerably larger than the sample mean. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The paper applies extreme value theory methods to the dual distribution and derives its tail properties. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 Potential war casualties are bounded by the world population. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Other global risks
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The paper analyzes the robustness of its results to errors in historical reports, accounting for historians' unreliability and missing data. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The paper's statistical results are at variance with prevailing claims of a "long peace", i.e. that violence has been declining over time. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Forty years before 2015, there was Pong. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Most machine intelligence development involves a fitness function that the program tries to optimize. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2015 The UN agreed on a set of development goals once before, in 2000, and the authors call it one of the best ideas for development either of them has ever seen; they say it focused the world on key measures of basics such as good health and a chance to get an education. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates wrote the 2015 Annual Letter about what the future holds. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 2015 With 75 percent of Republicans not voting for Trump, a candidate can still hold the plurality so long as the "no" vote is divided among a sufficient number of alternatives. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Other
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Some digital financial innovation is happening first in poor countries. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Technology
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 2015 In 2014, GiveWell recommended and Good Ventures made two grants: $250,000 to Evidence Action and about $34,000 to IDinsight. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Delivered on time Rodney Brooks Promise 16 Dec 2014 Starting in 2015, Rethink Robotics will provide APIs allowing developers to improve Baxter. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 A recent Implicit Association Test study using political parties found unconscious partisan biases were about 1.5 times as strong as unconscious racial biases. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander is a psychiatrist by profession. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Satya Nadella Promise 10 Jul 2014 During July 2014, Nadella and Microsoft's Senior Leadership Team will share more about the engineering and organization changes they believe are needed. Satya Nadella · Promise · 10 Jul 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 10 Jul 2014 There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 5 May 2014 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's fixed-income arbitrage activity is a highly-levered, hedge-fund-like business. Bill Ackman · Factual · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Elon Musk Factual 3 Apr 2014 At that point, when a fourth failure would have ended things, the company had virtually no money. Elon Musk · Factual · 3 Apr 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 3 Mar 2014 Tony Bates joined Microsoft through the Skype acquisition, where he was Skype CEO, and later led Microsoft's Business Development and Evangelism team. Satya Nadella · Factual · 3 Mar 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual Feb 2014 The DONG Energy Group generated DKK 73 billion (EUR 9.8 billion) in revenue in 2013. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Factual Feb 2014 DONG Energy's net investments were DKK 5.9 billion in 2013, compared with DKK 13.4 billion in 2012. Ørsted · Factual · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 14 Jan 2014 Jonathan Silver, former head of the DOE loan program, expects the program to make money rather than be a subsidy. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Jan 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 2014 Y Combinator has capacity constraints while scaling, which forces it to reject potentially good companies. Sam Altman · Factual · 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual Mar 2013 Shazam, which uses GPUs for audio search, handled about 300M user queries per month by 2013. Jensen Huang · Factual · Mar 2013 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual Mar 2013 The NVIDIA GRID VCA BASE model costs $24,900 plus a $2,400/yr software license covering unlimited devices. Jensen Huang · Factual · Mar 2013 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual Mar 2013 By 2013 there were 430M CUDA-capable GPUs, 1.6M CUDA downloads, 50 GPU supercomputers, 640 university courses and 37,000 academic papers. Jensen Huang · Factual · Mar 2013 Technology
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 30 Jan 2013 Paul Christiano is working on actual Friendly AI problems while also looking for other promising interventions. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Jan 2013 Field building and careers
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Dec 2012 Nassim Taleb spent most of his adult life as an option trader. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Dec 2012 Nassim Taleb calls the mistake of applying artificial-lottery logic to real-world randomness the "ludic fallacy". Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Dec 2012 Nassim Taleb says he gave the name "antifragile", for lack of a better one, to the class of phenomena that gain from disorder through a convexity bias. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Dec 2012 At least five millennia passed between the invention of the wheel and the innovation of putting wheels under suitcases. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Technology
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO is solvent and has stayed in business. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Nov 2012 Steven Pinker's academic credentials are as an experimental psychologist. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Nov 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Nov 2012 Statistical studies using regression analyses have tried to turn correlations into causal stories by measuring putative causes of war at one time and the incidence of war at a later time. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Nov 2012 Science and research methods
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 9 Sep 2012 Vinod Khosla recently read Ben Austen's WIRED article about Steve Jobs. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 9 Sep 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 18 Jun 2012 When attacks involve lethal risks, men in tribal societies tend to desert or avoid fighting unless shamed or physically punished, as in Mathew and Boyd's study of Turkana warfare. Steven Pinker · Factual · 18 Jun 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 18 Jun 2012 Pinker said he has argued that the concept of group selection has no useful role to play in psychology or social science. Steven Pinker · Factual · 18 Jun 2012 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Jensen Huang Promise May 2012 NVIDIA will make the Tesla K20 available in Q4 2012. Jensen Huang · Promise · May 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual May 2012 With Hyper-Q, Kepler supports 32 concurrent work queues versus one on Fermi. Jensen Huang · Factual · May 2012 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 9 Feb 2012 The world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. Warren Buffett · Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 2012 In a 2012 interview, Nate Silver described himself as being somewhere between a liberal and a libertarian. Nate Silver · Factual · 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Steven Pinker Promise 10 Nov 2011 Steven Pinker's next book project will be a style manual for the 21st century, a competitor to Strunk and White incorporating modern linguistics and cognitive science. Steven Pinker · Promise · 10 Nov 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 10 Nov 2011 Cognition and language are Steven Pinker's research specialty. Steven Pinker · Factual · 10 Nov 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 6 Oct 2011 Steven Pinker is a professor who teaches psychology classes and conducts research on language and the human mind. Steven Pinker · Factual · 6 Oct 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 The novel Eyes of God is about intrigue and Indonesia. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 Eyes of God is a novel by Philip Babcock, an economist at UC Santa Barbara. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 John Blundell's Ladies of Liberty contains biographical sketches of libertarian and libertarian-themed women in U.S. history. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 Ladies of Liberty includes Rose Wilder Lane, Isabel Patterson, Rose Friedman, Jane Jacobs and others. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 Marc Andreessen said Disney had to buy Pixar, a software company, to remain relevant in animated movies. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 Videogame makers are today's fastest growing entertainment companies, with the industry growing to $60 billion from $30 billion five years earlier. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some investment managers among the mega-rich earn billions of dollars from their work. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Holders of stock index futures for 10 minutes have 60 percent of their gain taxed at 15 percent, as if they were long-term investors. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry wrote a paper in 1994, as a summer extern at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, on why rehabilitation medicine was doing well. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry decided to short the mortgage market, intending to profit from its collapse. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Fed Chairman Bernanke says the Federal Reserve is not printing money. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Other
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Secretary Paulson now claims that even had he known what was going to happen, he could not have done anything about it. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon developed several purpose-built persistence solutions, including its own key-value store and single table store. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's technologies are almost exclusively implemented as services with hardened interfaces as the only access to functionality. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Service-oriented architecture is the fundamental building abstraction for Amazon technologies. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 23 Dec 2010 Khosla's portfolio is developing a new engine type that is 50 percent more efficient at less cost than today's engines. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 23 Sep 2010 The US federal deficit in 2010 is about nine percent of GDP. Warren Buffett · Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 23 Sep 2010 Berkshire's railroad business (BNSF) shipments are 61 percent of the way back up from the recession bottom toward the prior peak. Warren Buffett · Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jul 2010 Non-greenhouse factors such as changes in solar output cannot alone explain the rise in global temperature over the past 50 years. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual Jun 2010 There has been very little new lending following the 2008 crisis government intervention, as of mid-2010. Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry deliberately avoided Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns as swap counterparties. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry shut down Scion Capital in 2008. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry's prediction of a mortgage market meltdown was based on his research into the residential mortgage market and mortgage-backed securities. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Promise 7 Jan 2010 GiveWell will examine itself critically over the coming weeks and share its self-review in near real time on its blog. GiveWell · Promise · 7 Jan 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Promise 7 Jan 2010 GiveWell intends to discuss, for each of its self-review questions, its progress since November 2008, where it stands today relative to success, and what it can do to improve. GiveWell · Promise · 7 Jan 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Per-capita CO2 emissions for each American are about 20 tons per year. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 Each stage of a ConvNet is composed of a filter bank, some non-linearities, and feature pooling layers. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 The idea behind multi-stage Hubel-Wiesel architectures is rooted in Hubel and Wiesel's 1962 work on the cat's primary visual cortex. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 Science and research methods
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 CO2 is warming the planet. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 The IPCC report does not necessarily represent the worst case for climate change. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 In many problems labeled data is scarce whereas unlabeled data is abundant. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 2009 US real home prices doubled between 1996 and 2006, whereas historically home prices never rose more than inflation. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 3 Apr 2008 Nassim Taleb worked on Wall Street for close to two decades in trading and risk management of derivatives. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 A mind accelerated a millionfold would accomplish a subjective year of thinking every 31 physical seconds. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2008 Biases implicit in the availability heuristic affect people's estimates of risk. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2008 Science and research methods
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If solar photovoltaics grew 10,000 percent, they would supply about 4 percent of worldwide electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Cement is one of the biggest producers of greenhouse gases. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 Saudi Arabia, with a smaller population than California, gains or loses a trillion dollars in asset values each time the oil price moves by $4. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 There will be a mix of biofuels in the marketplace. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
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Jensen Huang

Open its page

Factual AI compute, hardware and data

“This is the first one we've ever shipped.”

Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO 2016 Meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (60 Minutes transcript) (CBS News)

The AI supercomputer Huang delivered to Elon Musk and OpenAI in 2016 was the first of its kind Nvidia ever shipped.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True: records show the DGX-1 that Huang hand-delivered to OpenAI (with Elon Musk present) in August 2016 was the first DGX-1 or AI supercomputer of that kind NVIDIA shipped to any customer. Mostly true: it was among the very first units, for example the first commercial or first external customer delivery, while pre-production or internal units existed earlier, and the slip does not change the substance. Mostly false: credible evidence shows DGX-1 units had already shipped to other customers before the OpenAI delivery, but the OpenAI unit was still an early one. False: the delivered system was not a first-of-its-kind product, or NVIDIA had already shipped many such systems before it.

Evidence

  1. Elon Musk’s OpenAI Project First To Receive Nvidia's DGX-1 'AI Supercomputer In A Box' Tom's Hardware · 15 August 2016
    “The Elon Musk-backed OpenAI nonprofit became the first ever customer for Nvidia’s so called “AI supercomputer in a box,” officially named the DGX-1.”
  2. Nvidia Just Gave A Supercomputer to Elon Musk-backed Artificial Intelligence Group | Fortune Fortune · 15 August 2016
    ““To the future of computing and humanity. I present you the world’s first DGX-1!””
  3. Elon Musk replies to ‘internal email’ where he asked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for early unit of its supercomputer - The Times of India The Times of India · 16 February 2026 Own record
    “First shipment starts end next month. And already taking orders for delivery in September.”
  4. Elon Musk replies to ‘internal email’ where he asked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for early unit of its supercomputer - The Times of India The Times of India · 16 February 2026 Own record
    “I will make sure OpenAl gets one of the first ones.”

Reasoning

E1 is a trade report from August 2016, independent of NVIDIA. It says OpenAI became "the first ever customer" for NVIDIA's DGX-1. That matches the claim that the unit Huang delivered was the first one shipped. E2 reports the same delivery and quotes Huang's inscription, "the world's first DGX-1". That inscription is Huang's own statement, but it agrees with E1. Nothing in the evidence shows any DGX-1 going to another customer before OpenAI.

Cite this claim

Jensen Huang, “The AI supercomputer Huang delivered to Elon Musk and OpenAI in 2016 was the first of its kind Nvidia ever shipped.” (said 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8111af8defa6, method 0.1.0+03d23c0e. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8111af8defa6

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.