| Not yet due |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
In a coldly calculating rather than speculative market, stocks of companies governed with little respect for shareholders will suffer.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2025 |
Elon Musk thinks the world is headed toward Sustainable Abundance.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
Burry said he expected additional distributions of capital and profits from the Blue Ocean Re investment during the remainder of the year of the letter.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Berkshire's insurance float is likely to grow a bit over time and, with intelligent underwriting and some luck, has a reasonable prospect of being costless.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
31 Dec 2024 |
Musk said he thinks SpaceX has a decent chance of solving a reusable orbital heat shield in 2025 and solving it well in 2026.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
31 Dec 2024 |
Within a few years SpaceX direct-to-cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to more satellites and better technology.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
30 Dec 2024 |
The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
25 Dec 2024 |
Cowen guessed that Emergent Ventures winners working on aging will simply help people live to 100, rather than stopping or reversing aging, and he called that still a great investment.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
25 Dec 2024 |
Tyler Cowen said that, on their current trajectory, he does not see "that" happening for video games; the surroundings do not say what "that" refers to.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
25 Dec 2024 |
Tyler Cowen said he would bet against academic economists being highly influential in the Trump administration, except perhaps in very indirect, roundabout ways.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
25 Dec 2024 |
Cowen said he does not think individual humans can live forever.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Tyler Cowen | Prediction |
25 Dec 2024 |
Cowen guessed that there is some natural limit to human lifespan, due to the brain, somewhere between 100 and 120 years.
Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 25 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Prediction |
21 Dec 2024 |
On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.
Sam Altman · Prediction · 21 Dec 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Sam Altman | Prediction |
21 Dec 2024 |
Altman said he expects the trend of newer models such as o3-mini outperforming older ones such as o1 at a much lower cost to continue, and that the ability to get marginally more performance for exponentially more money will be really strange.
Sam Altman · Prediction · 21 Dec 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander tentatively suggested that a realistic version of the scenario might mean roughly a 33% decrease in the crime rate per 600 years.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not yet due |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander said, in a conditional aside, that he expects a singularity in the next few decades.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
Dec 2024 |
With medium confidence, technical moat will continue to be elusive in 2025, with convergence on broadly similar models across the US and China and some European systems catching up to roughly the same place.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · Dec 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Demis Hassabis | Prediction |
Dec 2024 |
Hassabis said he thinks AlphaFold's impact on drug design and understanding of biological processes is probably only at its beginning.
Demis Hassabis · Prediction · Dec 2024 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
Dec 2024 |
Few companies and even fewer consumers will adopt OpenAI's o3 at wide scale in 2025 because of price and robustness concerns.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · Dec 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Demis Hassabis | Prediction |
Dec 2024 |
AlphaFold could usher in a new era of 'digital biology'.
Demis Hassabis · Prediction · Dec 2024 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Satya Nadella | Prediction |
19 Nov 2024 |
Satya Nadella said he thinks Microsoft Research's AI-driven protein simulation system is a breakthrough that will help biomedical research and advances in drug discovery, protein design and enzyme engineering.
Satya Nadella · Prediction · 19 Nov 2024 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Satya Nadella | Prediction |
19 Nov 2024 |
Adding 100 reliable logical qubits could achieve scientific quantum advantage.
Satya Nadella · Prediction · 19 Nov 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei guessed that, if the task is kept very narrow to just writing code, AI systems will probably be able to do the kind of task that the vast majority of coders do.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Powerful AI will most likely arrive with a mild delay relative to the 2026-2027 straight-line extrapolation.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei said that eyeballing the rate at which capabilities are increasing, which he called totally unscientific, does make him think 'we'll get there' by 2026 or 2027, and he added that lots of things could derail it.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
At some point AI systems will become the principal investigators and leaders in research, directing humans or other AI systems.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly false |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei said that, after progress from 3% to 50% on SWE-bench in 10 months, state-of-the-art models would probably be at about 90% in another year, while adding that he did not know and it might be less.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei expects that the same training techniques used for code, image input and voice will scale to this area, which the conversation describes as giving Claude the power of action.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Within a few years, AI models will exceed the highest professional human level in skill.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Extrapolating the next few points on the capability curve, AI is very quickly approaching human-level ability.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei guessed that by about November 2025, AI models would be able to perform computer-use tasks very, very reliably.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Dario Amodei said he would not be surprised at all if Anthropic's models hit ASL-3 in 2025.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
In the early stages of AI-assisted science, AI systems will act like grad students working on projects given by human scientists.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
Science and research methods |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
In the near term, and maybe even in the medium term of 2, 3 or 4 years, Amodei expects humans to keep a huge role and programming as a job not to change, although the nature of programming will change, with less line-by-line writing and more macroscopic work.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
AI disruption of programming will happen fast.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved false |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei said that probably by 2027 there will be ambitions to build hundred-billion-dollar compute clusters, and that he thinks this will actually happen.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Powerful AI's transformative deployment in the world will take more likely five or 10 years than 50 or 100 years.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
For much longer than expected, the small parts of jobs humans still do will expand to fill their whole jobs as AI automates the rest.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Dario Amodei said that as a CEO he does not get to program much, and that he felt that if he went back to it six months later, it would be completely unrecognizable to him.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Over the next year or two, even without better models, there would be enormous opportunity to boost productivity by catching mistakes and doing grunt work with current AI models.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Scaling up models will enable AI to perform very wide-ranging cognitive tasks.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Eyeballing the rate at which AI capabilities are increasing makes Amodei think "we'll get there" by 2026 or 2027, though he says there are still worlds where it does not happen in 100 years.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Within two to three years, whether or not super powerful AI exists, compute clusters will be large enough to deploy millions of AI model instances.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
AI will disrupt agriculture, though more slowly than skills closer to AI builders.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Running out of training data could become a limit on AI scaling, though Amodei would bet against it.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Dario Amodei said he would suspect that if AI models reach 90-95% on the software-engineering benchmark, that will represent the ability to autonomously do a significant fraction of software engineering tasks.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei said he would bet on AI scaling laws continuing to hold, though he is not certain of that.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Within two to three years, compute clusters will be large enough to deploy millions of instances of AI models.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
AI scaling will probably continue to produce gains.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Within two to three years, the millions of deployable AI model instances will run faster than humans.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
9 Nov 2024 |
The US's focus on LLMs for AI may prove to be a massive mistake.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 9 Nov 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
9 Nov 2024 |
LLMs will become a commodity and price wars will keep revenue low.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 9 Nov 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
9 Nov 2024 |
LLMs will not disappear, but their economics will likely never make sense because training costs rise with scaling.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 9 Nov 2024 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
9 Nov 2024 |
Given chip costs, profits from LLMs will be elusive.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 9 Nov 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
9 Nov 2024 |
The AI financial bubble may burst quickly once people realize the situation, and Nvidia's valuation may take a hit.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 9 Nov 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
7 Nov 2024 |
Noting that many mail votes were still to be counted, Silver guessed that most of the shift toward Democrats in Washington, Oregon and Colorado would hold up.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 7 Nov 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
7 Nov 2024 |
The model's other 48 of 50 state calls will be right, assuming Trump's leads in Arizona and Nevada hold, which Silver said they almost certainly will.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 7 Nov 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
7 Nov 2024 |
Utah could become a swing state by 2040.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 7 Nov 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
7 Nov 2024 |
Voters leaving deep blue states while Republicans gain surplus voters in Florida and Texas will greatly reduce and perhaps reverse the Electoral College bias favoring Republicans.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 7 Nov 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
9 Oct 2024 |
Donald Trump's chance of winning the 2024 presidential election in the Electoral College is about even.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Oct 2024 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
8 Oct 2024 |
Nate Silver said that if he had to bet, he would guess the Silver Bulletin forecast probabilities for the 2024 presidential election would stay somewhere in the 50/50 to 60/40 range through Election Day.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Oct 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
8 Oct 2024 |
Harris will win the 2024 Electoral College about 11 times out of 20 and Trump about 9 times out of 20.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Oct 2024 |
Other |
| Not yet due |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
Oct 2024 |
By 2045 humans will expand their own intelligence a millionfold.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
It will take Meta about another 10 years to fully work through the cycle before its brand recovers to where it might have been.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Glasses, holographic presence and AR will become a completely ubiquitous product.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Apple will be Meta's primary competitor, in a competition that goes beyond product to values and ideology.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
If all the people in the world who already have glasses upgrade to glasses with AI in them, those glasses will be one of the most successful products in history, and Zuckerberg thinks they will go further than that.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks what he was describing will be important for the world and will work over time.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
18 Sep 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he now thinks full-scale AI will probably become available before AR holograms.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
27 Aug 2024 |
If served with a lawful warrant, Telegram could be legally compelled to search for evidence of Macron entrapping Durov, if it exists.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Aug 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
27 Aug 2024 |
The Telegram network and the UAE state might join forces to free Durov.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Aug 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
27 Aug 2024 |
France may not be able to hold Telegram founder Pavel Durov in custody for long.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Aug 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
27 Aug 2024 |
France would probably release Pavel Durov rather than suffer public humiliation from lawful releases of Macron's messages, should they exist.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Aug 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
16 Aug 2024 |
If all goes well, biotech founders who come to the Network School will eventually help people surpass their genetic limits and live much longer.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 16 Aug 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
13 Aug 2024 |
Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 13 Aug 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Chipotle's limited-time Smoked Brisket launch starting in September 2024 should further improve sales trends.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Hilton should realize mid-to-high-teens compounded earnings growth for the foreseeable future.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Pershing Square said its core portfolio companies continue to generate strong business performance, which it expects over time to be reflected in their long-term stock price performance.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Bill Ackman's statement said "we believe" each of the company's (QSR's) brands will benefit in a slower economic environment with consumers trading down.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
The statement expresses the belief that CPKC's network and management team are well positioned to deliver continued synergy wins and excellent operations, which it says should generate strong double-digit earnings growth in the coming years.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Bill Ackman stated a belief that as QSR returns to its historic mid-single-digit unit growth and delivers consistent performance at each of its brands, its share price will more accurately reflect its improving fundamentals.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
Bill Ackman said that "we" expect the Chipotle team built by Brian will not lose a step following Brian's departure.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
UMG's share price is likely to increase significantly from current levels as investors better understand its path to higher revenue growth and regain confidence in the industry.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
By reducing its performance fees, PSH will generate higher net returns, report lower fees on its KID disclosure, and become a more attractive investment for asset managers and other investors.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Aug 2024 |
The speakers said they believed that even in a scenario where Google loses its appeal, the company is well-positioned to navigate a range of likely potential remedy outcomes.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he believes AI will develop in a way similar to Linux, which became the industry standard foundation, adding that open source is quickly closing the gap with leading closed models.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
In Zuckerberg's view, closing AI models to keep them from China will not work and will only disadvantage the US and its allies.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Because Llama 3.1 405B is open, it will be the best choice for fine-tuning and distilling smaller models.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks governments will conclude it is in their interest to support open source because it will make the world more prosperous and safer.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
In Zuckerberg's view, open source AI will be safer than the alternatives.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Meta expects that, starting in 2025, future Llama models will become the most advanced AI models in the industry.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
23 Jul 2024 |
Zuckerberg said he believes the Llama 3.1 release will be an inflection point in the industry where most developers begin to primarily use open source, and that he expects this approach to keep growing.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 23 Jul 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction |
22 Jul 2024 |
The Western world is headed for a sovereign debt crisis far worse than the 2008 crisis.
Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Jul 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
9 Jul 2024 |
Computer-driven cars will be much safer than human-driven cars.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 |
Technology |