Claims

Factual · Their own work or organisation

“the end circle is so far a five volume investigation of luck, randomness and decision making under opacity.”

Nassim Taleb, author · 11 April 2018 · Nassim Nicholas Taleb Interview (Art of Manliness)

Taleb's Incerto is so far a five-volume investigation of luck, randomness and decision making under opacity.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True: as of April 2018, the Incerto as Taleb or his publisher described it had five volumes (Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game), presented as an investigation of luck, randomness and decision-making under opacity or uncertainty. Mostly true: the count is five, but one volume was announced and not yet released at that date, or the stated theme is worded slightly differently. Mixed: the count is close (four, or five plus technical volumes) and the theme matches. Mostly false: the volume count is clearly different. False: the Incerto did not exist as a series in that form at that date.

Evidence

1. Incerto Penguin Random House · 25 October 2016

   “Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.”

2. Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: 9780425284629: Books - Amazon.ca Amazon.ca

   “Publication date : Feb. 27 2018”

3. Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: 9780425284629: Books - Amazon.ca Amazon.ca

   “He is the author of the Incerto (latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Skin in the Game, Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Fooled by Randomness) plus a technical version, The Technical Incerto (Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails).”

4. Taleb as persuasive as ever, but Skin in the Game lacks the boldness of his earlier work ThePrint · 15 April 2018

   “Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ‘Incerto’ series has included some very influential works like Black Swan and Anti-fragile. Skin in the Game, introduced in Antifragile, is the latest in the series”

Reasoning

The publisher's series page [E1] describes the Incerto as "an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making". It names five books: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game and The Bed of Procrustes. The fifth book, Skin in the Game, came out on February 27, 2018 [E2], before the claim date. The retailer's author text [E3] lists the same five books, with the technical volume kept separate, and a review from April 2018 calls Skin in the Game the latest book in the series [E4]. Both the count of five and the stated theme match the criteria for true.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Taleb's Incerto is so far a five-volume investigation of luck, randomness and decision making under opacity.” (said 11 April 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8c240f4c6b1f, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8c240f4c6b1f