| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
22 Feb 2025 |
Dalio said he would expect the United States not to have competitive advantages in the two areas he was discussing, where he said it is greatly behind.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
22 Feb 2025 |
Dalio said he does not believe the United States will become competitive with China in manufacturing within our lifetimes.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
22 Feb 2025 |
A fiscal commission achieving agreement on US fiscal problems is unlikely, and the US will see more fragmentation.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
If truly compelling evidence of the dangers of autonomous AI emerged, a slowdown in AI development would be just barely possible.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
Interpretability, meaning understanding the inner workings of AI systems, could be achieved before AI models reach an overwhelming level of power.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
Amodei said that multiple recent breakthroughs had convinced him that interpretability research is on the right track and has a real chance of success in its goal of fully revealing the inner workings of AI models.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
Better interpretability could greatly improve the ability to set bounds on the range of possible AI errors.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
Amodei said that, on its current trajectory, he would bet strongly in favor of interpretability becoming a sophisticated and reliable way to diagnose problems in even very advanced AI within 5-10 years.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
If it were possible to look inside models, it might be possible to systematically block all jailbreaks and characterize what dangerous knowledge models have.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
Amodei said he is quite skeptical that any slowdown in AI development to address risk is possible, even among companies within democratic countries, given AI's economic value.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
18 Feb 2025 |
The most likely route to "smoking gun" evidence of AI danger is interpretability itself.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Gates | Prediction |
4 Feb 2025 |
Gates thinks the theory of innovation, making cheap, clean technology, is one of the few things that will survive the reduced willingness to subsidize.
Bill Gates · Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Bill Gates | Prediction |
4 Feb 2025 |
Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before.
Bill Gates · Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
The DOGE effort will turn out very different from previous government-efficiency programs.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
If US debt growth is not fixed, the US will at some point enter a hyper-inflationary spiral and become like Argentina or Brazil.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
If federal (and for state schools, state) taxpayer funding were withdrawn, universities would instantly go bankrupt.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said he thinks it may be that, with the continued growth of Substack and other new platforms, a tremendous amount of previously forbidden conversations can now shift back into public view, though he did not know that everything would.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said he thinks that if taxpayers come to understand the level of crisis, the funding will evaporate.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Marc Andreessen | Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
If the debt problem is not fixed, the US will at some point enter a hyperinflationary spiral and become like Argentina or Brazil.
Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
For the next period, running advanced reasoning models will take a lot of compute.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Brain-interface technology will first be used by people with severe conditions before being used for gaming.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
AI engineers will augment the people working on code.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg guessed that if AI is open source and widely available, people will all kind of have superpowers, rather than a runaway AI emerging.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Requiring more confidence for takedowns will dramatically reduce the number of people whose Meta accounts are removed by mistake.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
If AI is locked down, only big AI companies and the Chinese government (which steals it from them) would have access to it.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Changing Meta's content filters to require higher confidence and precision will reduce the vast majority of Meta's censorship mistakes.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Meta will go to court against government investigations and win all the cases because it follows the rules.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
It will be a while before brain-interface technology is widely deployed.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Over time, a lot of the code in Meta's apps, including its AI, will be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
A single VR player with a haptic suit will not be able to actually kick someone who is not physically there.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
The number of hours per week people must work to get by will probably continue to shrink.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
In the future people will have AI coworkers.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Jiu-jitsu will be the last thing that can be done in VR because it needs the other person's momentum.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said he thought that probably in 2025 Meta and other companies working on AI would have an AI that can effectively act as a mid-level engineer writing code.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
The U.S. government will probably need to help defend American tech companies against foreign governments.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Apple's second and third versions of the Vision Pro will probably be better than the first version.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
People who are highly engaged in their work will accomplish far more than before thanks to the leverage of more technology.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks a whole new class of creators will become the new cultural elites that people look to.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction |
10 Jan 2025 |
Zuckerberg said he thinks Meta's current approach will be pretty durable going forward, because the company has been pressure-tested on these issues for about eight to ten years.
Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Jensen Huang | Prediction |
7 Jan 2025 |
The ChatGPT moment for general robotics is just around the corner.
Jensen Huang · Prediction · 7 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Jensen Huang | Prediction |
7 Jan 2025 |
Every robotics company will ultimately have to build three computers, one of them to train the AI.
Jensen Huang · Prediction · 7 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Robotaxi service, even with remote operators, will not be operating in 50 US cities by 2028.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Humanoid robots will not take away jobs for decades.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
US battery electric cars will not reach 30% of new car sales in 2027, given a Q3 2024 share of 8.9%.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Boeing's Starliner may never fly again.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Coding as a job is not about to be eliminated by AI.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
OpenAI will continue in 2025 to preview products months or years before they are solid and widely available at an accessible price.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
AI Safety Institutes will offer guidance in 2025 but have little legal authority to stop truly dangerous models.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
It would not be a huge surprise if Boeing's Starliner never flies again.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
No 'GPT-5 level' model, a huge across-the-board leap by community consensus, may appear throughout 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks says he "got suckered by his hype" and that the development he discusses, which the surrounding text links to a "taxi" service in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities, is unlikely to happen in the first half of this century.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks said he is quite confident that SpaceX will not fly 400 Starship launches in the four years 2025 through 2028.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
The imagined capabilities of many of the technologies in question will not arrive in the time frames most of the technology and prognosticator class expect.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Profits from AI models will remain modest or nonexistent in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Lack of reliability will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Scientists are not about to be replaced by AI programs.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
The aircraft type whose last unit was built in 1963 is expected to keep flying until at least 2040, and perhaps longer.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Hallucinations will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Less than 10% of the workforce will be replaced by AI in 2025, probably less than 5%.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Humans are not on the verge of being replaced and eliminated from white-collar or blue-collar jobs by AI and robots.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Copyright lawsuits over generative AI will continue throughout 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Valuations of major AI companies may start to fall in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks said it appears probably not to be the case that, if more made things better, even more would keep making things better, as proponents had reasoned.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Rodney Brooks said he was quite confident that SpaceX would not fly 400 Starship launches in the four years 2025 through 2028, while saying it was certainly plausible he might live to see 400 Starship launches in some four-year period.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
The US will continue to have very little regulation protecting consumers from generative AI risks in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Overcoming radiation shielding and lack-of-gravity challenges for multi-year human spaceflight may take decades or even centuries.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
A large-scale cyberattack in which generative AI plays an important causal role may well occur in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
AI agents will be heavily hyped throughout 2025 but remain far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
The official mid-2027 Starship lunar landing schedule will likely slip by a few years.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks thinks that if Waymo cannot make its taxi service succeed within the next two years, the idea of large-scale use of limited ('watered down') autonomy will be dead for at least a decade or two.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Physical robots in current designs are not ripe for exponential cost reduction by burning wastes, and that will not happen just because humanoid robots are (perhaps) mass produced.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
AI power consumption will rise in 2025 and remain a major problem, while few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
In 2025 humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release a robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks assessed that regular weekly suborbital paying-customer flights in 2026 were looking impossible, given the data from 2023 and 2024 and one of the two companies being on hiatus for all of 2025 and well into 2026.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
In 2025 truly driverless cars will remain limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West and in good weather.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
OpenAI's Sora will continue to have trouble with physics in 2025.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
Brooks thinks humanoid robots with even minimal useable performance are a long way from real deployment, and further still from having enough ROI for people to use them for anything beyond marketing.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
1 Jan 2025 |
AI will presumably solve compositionality, factuality, reasoning and similar problems someday, though current techniques have thus far not been adequate.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2025 |
Elon Musk says Tesla's Optimus robot will be an incredible surgeon.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
Burry does not expect a lasting rebound in the stocks of technology companies with reckless management after the bubble burst.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
A truly staggering insurance loss will occur someday, and there is no guarantee there will be only one per year.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
The Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will continue to fall as its equity, now over $14.7 million, grows.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Marcus said the chance that someone, possibly the person he was speaking with or someone else, has a different architecture that works is maybe a little higher.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Buffett said he expects that Greg and his eventual successors will hold Berkshire's Japanese position for many decades, and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five companies in the future.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
There are some questions, such as the definition of life in abortion decisions, on which humans will never agree.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Prediction |
2025 |
Without an automatic 1% asset management fee, the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will generally be no greater than 1%.
Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
When "it" arrives, people will look back at the early 2020s and ask why so much effort went in one direction when the answer lay elsewhere.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Marcus said he thinks the chance that "it" (the development under discussion, which the quoted passage does not name) will come out of large language models is zero.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Warren Buffett | Prediction |
2025 |
Over time Berkshire's ownership stake in all five Japanese companies will likely increase somewhat.
Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Even if AGI is like a million smart people working 24/7, it will not magically solve all problems or remove the need for empirical data.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2025 |
Elon Musk says Tesla believes Optimus and self-driving can create a world with no poverty.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
Many different AGIs will probably appear in many places once AGI is reached.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
2025 |
It would be improbable for all of those outstanding AI problems to be solved within five years.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |