Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

1,587 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Microsoft drew on Carol Dweck's growth mindset work, which helped it move from 'know-it-alls' to 'learn-it-alls'. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Microsoft's Flight Simulator, a PC game predating Xbox, is as old as Microsoft. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 29 Apr 2022 Anthropic announced a new fundraising round on 2022-04-29. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 29 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only GiveWell Promise 6 Apr 2022 Each contest entry will be reviewed by at least one GiveWell researcher with substantial experience with its cost-effectiveness analyses. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Factual 6 Apr 2022 Each of the six listed analyses relates to a program to which GiveWell has directed substantial funding (generally tens of millions of dollars) and which it intends to consider for substantial future funding. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time GiveWell Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will announce contest winners by December 15, 2022. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Most strong contest entries will focus on one of the six listed programs. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will share a full, substantive response to the winning and runner-up contest entries. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Zuckerberg said that a 15-year project he described has six or seven key unknowns, and that multiple teams are trying different approaches to them. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Each of Meta's company values is coupled with an operational effort. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Until the last few years, Meta had not focused as much on building awe-inspiring things, as opposed to widely used products. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 Workrooms will probably learn what it needs to do to become a great product a lot faster than many others in the space. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Promise 24 Mar 2022 Zuckerberg hopes that by the end of this decade 50 percent or more of Meta's workforce will work distributed and remotely. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Zuckerberg said Meta basically encodes a framework of goals, metrics to track those goals, and countermetrics into all of its teams across the company. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Meta has a rule that everyone in leadership or management should do at least one standing meeting a week in Workrooms. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Workrooms is a VR product Meta built for collaboration. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 23 Mar 2022 Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Lydia Davis. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Tyler Cowen Promise 19 Mar 2022 Tyler Cowen will make an Emergent Ventures donation to Mylovanov, with his team contacting him to ensure secure delivery. Tyler Cowen · Promise · 19 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 14 Mar 2022 Scott Alexander said that in February 2022 he had discussed problems with the Metaculus leaderboard. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 14 Mar 2022 In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 11 Mar 2022 The eighteenth cohort of Emergent Ventures winners was announced. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 11 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 9 Mar 2022 Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Sam Bankman-Fried. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 9 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 7 Mar 2022 An excerpt from Tyler Cowen's book Talent, with Daniel Gross, was published. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 7 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Daniela Amodei said Dario Amodei was getting a PhD in a technical field at the time and so was not working directly on the interest area she described, which she connected with her start in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic's Twitter handle is @anthropicAI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic has a Twitter account. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Daniela and Dario Amodei both donated small amounts to global health organizations, such as malaria prevention groups, while still in school. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic's website states its mission as building steerable, interpretable and reliable AI systems. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic's societal impacts team is about 1.5 people and has been working on AI evaluations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 At Anthropic there is no strong distinction between research and engineering: researchers write code and engineers contribute to research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic's policy team is about 1.5 people as of late 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic generally tweets about its recent research releases from its Twitter account. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Stripe had about 40 people when Daniela Amodei joined. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic is currently focused on research and development rather than deployment of products for revenue. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic's website anthropic.com is the best place to see most of its recent work. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic staff all have lunch together every day. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic is hiring a lot of people as of March 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic chose to incorporate as a public benefit corporation when it was founded. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic has about 35 employees as of late 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Mar 2022 Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual Mar 2022 In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 23 Feb 2022 Tyler Cowen published a multi-part Conversation with Chuck Klosterman, longer than usual. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Feb 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 12 Feb 2022 TechCrunch interviewed Tyler Cowen about crypto. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 12 Feb 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla sees its energy business as probably reaching a terawatt-hour per year in the long term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Tesla does not have incubators. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will start delivering Texas-built Model Ys with structural battery pack and 4680 cells after final certification, which should be fairly soon. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Long term, effectively every car will have FSD. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Tesla short-changed its energy business in 2021, with vehicles taking priority over energy. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will possibly announce new factory locations by the end of 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square acquired more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix over several days from Friday, making it a top-20 shareholder. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square had never previously owned a stake in Netflix. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square began analyzing Netflix in connection with its Universal Music Group investment, before Netflix's stock price declined sharply the previous Friday. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Members of Anthropic's founding group had previously done a lot of safety research together at different organizations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 Anthropic pursues its mission primarily through generative model research and AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Promise 2022 SPARC will have no shareholder warrants or underwriting fees and only common stock outstanding, other than 20% out-of-the-money Sponsor and Director Warrants on 5.21% of the post-transaction company. Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 A few jobs before Anthropic, Daniela Amodei worked at the tech startup Stripe. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Pershing Square has always sought to have positive, constructive engagements with its portfolio companies and their boards and management teams. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic structures its teams with capabilities research as a central pillar and safety research wrapping around every project. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei joined the startup Stripe when it had about 40 people. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei joined Stripe when it was not much bigger than Anthropic is now. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei worked at several NGOs in Washington DC early in her career. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei began her career in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Stripe, when she worked there, operated in the highly regulated financial services space with many checks and balances on the company. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes the SPARC structure will, over time, enable it to own large stakes in high quality, newly public businesses that meet its investment criteria. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Bill Ackman Promise 2022 If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022. Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic was founded at the beginning of 2021 by a team of seven people who moved together from OpenAI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Tyler Cowen Factual 29 Dec 2021 Tyler Cowen and his team did not foresee the Delta variant when making their 2021 predictions, as many others also did not. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Tyler Cowen Factual 29 Dec 2021 Tyler Cowen saw about 30 movies in a theater in 2021. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 29 Dec 2021 Tyler Cowen sits on the advisory board of the University of Austin and has no governing role there. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Promise 29 Dec 2021 Tyler Cowen and Daniel Gross's book Talent will be published by St. Martin's on May 22, 2022. Tyler Cowen · Promise · 29 Dec 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 20 Dec 2021 Gary Marcus wrote the 2001 book The Algebraic Mind, and its predictions have so far held true. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Dec 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 7 Dec 2021 Source Code covers Bill Gates's life from his childhood through the early days of Microsoft. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Dec 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Factual 12 Nov 2021 Demis Hassabis spoke at COP26 in the week before 12 November 2021 about how AI can potentially help with the climate crisis. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 12 Nov 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual Nov 2021 The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 The company just announced a fundamental change, including looking at and reporting on its business as two segments. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 Facebook is one of the most used products in the history of the world. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 For the last seven years Meta's research team has worked on a broad array of technologies for next-generation platforms. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 Facebook is one of the most used technology products in the history of the world. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 Zuckerberg studied Classics, and the word "meta" comes from the Greek word meaning "beyond". Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 The company formerly called Facebook, Inc. is now named Meta. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 When Zuckerberg started Facebook, people mostly typed text on websites. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 Meta's mobile apps are free to use. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 Facebook was born on a college campus and on the web. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 Zuckerberg's original founder's letter said: "we don't build services to make money; we make money to build better services." Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Oct 2021 Zuckerberg said that billions of people love the company's services and that hundreds of millions of businesses rely on its tools, and he linked this to its commerce tools being offered at cost or with modest fees. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 28 Oct 2021 Demis Hassabis gave the Kendrew lecture and visited the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, and the talk has been posted online. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Promise 28 Oct 2021 Over time, Meta's other services will no longer require users to use Facebook. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Promise 17 Oct 2021 Gary Marcus will give a talk at the AGI21 conference on 2021-10-18. Gary Marcus · Promise · 17 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 14 Oct 2021 Soon after an earlier point in time, a Lehman analyst predicted Amazon (AMZN) would go bankrupt. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 13 Oct 2021 Demis Hassabis was giving the John Kendrew lecture on AlphaFold at the MRC LMB at 2.30pm UK time on 13 October 2021. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 13 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
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Factual Their own work or organisation

“for most of my 30 years of professional career, 32 years now, was in the middle.”

Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO, interviewee 24 May 2022 Satya Nadella is building the future (Transcript) – ReThinking with Adam Grant (TED)

Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2022-05-24. Nadella's career began around 1990 (Sun Microsystems), and he joined Microsoft in 1992. True if documented career history shows that for more than half of roughly 32 years (i.e., before he became CEO in 2014, or the large majority of that time) he held roles below the top executive level of his organisation, such as manager, general manager, vice president or division president, rather than CEO. This is the plain sense of being 'in the middle'. Mostly true if he held such intermediate roles for most of his career, with only a small discrepancy in the year count (e.g., 30 vs 32 years). Mixed if the record shows a roughly even split between intermediate roles and top-level or individual-contributor roles. Mostly false if most of his career was in roles clearly not 'in the middle' (e.g., mostly in entry-level individual-contributor roles, or mostly at the top), with only a minority in intermediate management. False if the documented career history contradicts the claim outright.

Evidence

  1. Satya Nadella | Worth Worth Magazine · 12 September 2017
    “Nadella worked across departments in his first 22 years at Microsoft, and he was leading its cloud and enterprise group when he was tapped to replace Steve Ballmer as CEO in 2014.”
  2. Satya Nadella biography: The salary and career history of Microsoft's new CEO ITPro · 7 February 2014
    “A Microsoft mainstay: Since joining the Redmond giant in 1992, Nadella has moved between departments every few years.”
  3. Satya Nadella biography: The salary and career history of Microsoft's new CEO ITPro · 7 February 2014
    “For instance, he served as vice president of the Microsoft Business Division, senior vice president of research and development for the Online Services division (2009 to 2011), and president of the software giant's $19 billion Server and Tools Business (2011 to 2013).”
  4. How Satya Nadella Worked His Way To The Top At Microsoft CRN · 5 February 2014
    “Over the years, Nadella has worked his way into a diverse set of roles at Microsoft, some engineering focused, others more business focused”

Reasoning

E1 says Nadella spent his first 22 years at Microsoft in roles across departments, and was leading the cloud and enterprise group when he became CEO in 2014. E3 lists his roles before he became CEO as vice president, senior vice president (2009–2011) and division president (2011–2013). E4 also describes a series of roles below CEO. That puts about 22 of his roughly 30–32 career years before the top job and only about 8 as CEO by May 2022. This meets the criteria's test of more than half of his career spent below the top executive level.

Cite this claim

Satya Nadella, “Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles.” (said 24 May 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_518d276e030b, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_518d276e030b

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.