Claims

Promise · Their own work or organisation

“Because we tilted heavily toward paid content toward the end of the race, everything in this period will be free”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin · 7 November 2024 · The model exactly predicted the most likely election map (Silver Bulletin)

Silver Bulletin will make all its posts free during the post-election wind-down period, except a bonus subscriber questions post.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

What would count as true or false

The wind-down period runs from 7 November 2024 until the regular schedule resumed (the week of 17 November 2024, or the end of November 2024 at the latest). True: every Silver Bulletin post in that period was free to read in full, apart from a bonus subscriber-questions (SBSQ) post. Mostly true: all regular posts were free, but one post had a small paywalled section such as a footnote or bonus section. Mostly false: one regular post other than the SBSQ exception was substantially paywalled. False: two or more such posts were paywalled.

Evidence

1. It's 2004 all over again Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 12 November 2024 Own record

   “I wish I could give you a crystal-clear sense of what Democrats felt like in 2004 after George W. Bush was elected to a second term.”

2. It's 2004 all over again Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 12 November 2024 Own record

   “I wish I could give you a crystal-clear sense of what Democrats felt like in 2004 after George W. Bush was elected to a second term.”

3. Soft launch of paid subscriptions Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 11 September 2023 Own record

   “Periodic1 paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads, where I'll answer reader questions from paid subscribers. Most of the answers will be behind the paywall.”

4. Soft launch of paid subscriptions Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 11 September 2023 Own record

   “Very important disclaimer: Until I've settled on a long-term plan, 1) most posts will remain free and 2) posting volume will be highly variable based on my book-writing schedule and other constraints.”

5. SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round! Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 5 November 2024 Own record

   “I'll send a reminder once we get closer to the late November/early December edition.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 show one regular post from inside the wind-down window, "It's 2004 all over again" (12 Nov 2024). The quoted text from that post does not show whether the whole post was free. E3 and E4 describe the general paywall policy from 2023, and E5 is a pre-election SBSQ post; neither says which posts were paywalled in the period. With no list of all posts from the period and their paywall status, the evidence cannot show whether every post was free.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Silver Bulletin will make all its posts free during the post-election wind-down period, except a bonus subscriber questions post.” (said 7 November 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6a412ed508a0, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6a412ed508a0