| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
7 Dec 2021 |
Source Code covers Bill Gates's life from his childhood through the early days of Microsoft.
Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Dec 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Factual |
5 Dec 2021 |
People in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump in the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19.
Vinod Khosla · Factual · 5 Dec 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
28 Nov 2021 |
There is no legal duty for a corporation's board or management to maximize its profits.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Nov 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
17 Nov 2021 |
Miami has accepted some city coins and Texas is big in Bitcoin mining.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
17 Nov 2021 |
The newspapers' coverage essentially got President Nixon forced out of office.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
15 Nov 2021 |
Deep neural nets, nearly 10 years after their celebrated rebirth, are still utterly fooled by images like the one shown.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 15 Nov 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
11 Nov 2021 |
The concept can be called 'dynamic digital geography', after a term Patri Friedman introduced and used for seasteading.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
11 Nov 2021 |
There is no public list of all Facebook and Twitter members.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
10 Nov 2021 |
Eliezer Yudkowsky has often criticized the Federal Reserve for not creating enough money fast enough.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Nov 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
2 Nov 2021 |
Jeff Bezos is one of the founding funders of Prince William's Earthshot Prize.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Nov 2021 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Shiite Islam shares many features with Christianity, such as a twelve-based structure, the last of whom is associated with Jesus, and self-flagellation rituals commemorating martyrdom.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Orthodox Christianity has stiffer dietary laws than Western Christianity, with veganism more than 200 days per year.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Darwinian ideas of evolutionary differences within species naturally lead to notions of eugenics, that humans can improve the race by speeding evolution.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
The Enlightenment, with the growth of 'science', started finding statistical differences in abilities between people of different races.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Nov 2021 |
Emperor Julian did not realize that paganism was a decentralized, overlapping set of club-like affiliations to gods, and tried to organize it like the Church.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
The company just announced a fundamental change, including looking at and reporting on its business as two segments.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
Facebook is one of the most used products in the history of the world.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
Taking one less work flight a year is probably better for the environment than almost anything else a person can do.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
For the last seven years Meta's research team has worked on a broad array of technologies for next-generation platforms.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
When Zuckerberg started Facebook, people mostly typed text on websites.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Mark Zuckerberg | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
Meta's mobile apps are free to use.
Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
28 Oct 2021 |
Demis Hassabis gave the Kendrew lecture and visited the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, and the talk has been posted online.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Factual |
20 Oct 2021 |
GitLab's outcome produced massive financial returns for Khosla Ventures and other investors.
Vinod Khosla · Factual · 20 Oct 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Factual |
14 Oct 2021 |
Soon after an earlier point in time, a Lehman analyst predicted Amazon (AMZN) would go bankrupt.
Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
13 Oct 2021 |
Demis Hassabis was giving the John Kendrew lecture on AlphaFold at the MRC LMB at 2.30pm UK time on 13 October 2021.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 13 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
11 Oct 2021 |
Bezos said this was one of many stories telling Amazon all the ways it was going to fail.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
1 Oct 2021 |
After many failures and setbacks in gaming, Jeff Bezos says "we" have had a success, and he praises the team for its persistence.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1 Oct 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI published a paper on summarization on 2021-09-23, and an instruction-following model produced a summary of its first part.
Sam Altman · Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Factual |
23 Sep 2021 |
OpenAI created a system that can generate reasonable summaries of entire books.
Sam Altman · Factual · 23 Sep 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
14 Sep 2021 |
As of 2021-09-14, US equities were down 4% from their peak.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 14 Sep 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
19 Aug 2021 |
The Sponsor Warrants restrict selling, hedging or transferring for three years after the initial business combination.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
19 Aug 2021 |
Holding cash and government securities while seeking a business combination does not make PSTH or other SPACs illegal investment companies.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
19 Aug 2021 |
As of August 2021, PSTH has about 11 months remaining to enter into a letter of intent for its initial business combination.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
19 Aug 2021 |
The two law professors behind the lawsuit told the press their motivation was to reform the entire SPAC industry.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
19 Aug 2021 |
The SPARC warrants will remove the two-year "shot clock" for a sponsor to complete a transaction.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
22 Jul 2021 |
The AlphaFold work represents the culmination of five years of effort by the DeepMind AlphaFold team, including overcoming setbacks and developing new algorithmic innovations.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 22 Jul 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
22 Jul 2021 |
When DeepMind announced AlphaFold 2 in December, it was hailed as a solution to the 50-year-old protein folding problem.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 22 Jul 2021 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
22 Jul 2021 |
DeepMind's AlphaFold team worked for five years and closely with EMBL-EBI for the past few months to be able to share the AlphaFold resource.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 22 Jul 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Promise |
22 Jul 2021 |
In the coming months DeepMind plans to expand the database to over 100 million structures covering most of the UniProt reference database.
Demis Hassabis · Promise · 22 Jul 2021 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
21 Jul 2021 |
On 2021-07-21 the Air Quality Index in New York City was 175, rated unhealthy, due to haze from West Coast fires.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 21 Jul 2021 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
20 Jul 2021 |
On 2021-07-20 the Bitcoin price was below $30,000, putting most retail buyers who entered after March 2021 at a loss.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 20 Jul 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Prediction |
29 Jun 2021 |
It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster.
Nate Silver · Prediction · 29 Jun 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Factual |
16 Jun 2021 |
The risk of a vaccinated young person getting severely ill from COVID is incredibly low, though not zero.
Nate Silver · Factual · 16 Jun 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Nate Silver | Factual |
8 Jun 2021 |
The 2020 election forecasts by Nate Silver's team were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls.
Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Jun 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ørsted | Promise |
2 Jun 2021 |
Ørsted announced on 2 June 2021, with immediate effect, a ban on landfilling of wind turbine blades.
Ørsted · Promise · 2 Jun 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Daniela Amodei | Factual |
28 May 2021 |
Anthropic is an AI safety and research company.
Daniela Amodei · Factual · 28 May 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
25 May 2021 |
At Microsoft Build 2021, Microsoft is introducing more than 100 new updates and services across the tech stack.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 25 May 2021 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
12 May 2021 |
Biological brains have a high degree of precise internal structure that artificial neural networks lack.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 12 May 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
8 May 2021 |
Covid-19 is transmitted through the air (airborne).
Gary Marcus · Factual · 8 May 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Promise |
6 May 2021 |
Microsoft will let commercial and public sector customers in the EU use its core cloud services with their data remaining inside the EU.
Satya Nadella · Promise · 6 May 2021 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
15 Apr 2021 |
More than 1.9 million small and medium-sized businesses sell in Amazon's store and make up close to 60% of its retail sales.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 15 Apr 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
31 Mar 2021 |
Over 10,000 people are needed for Tesla's Giga Texas through 2022.
Elon Musk · Factual · 31 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Promise |
25 Mar 2021 |
1729 will be a newsletter that pays subscribers, giving out at least $1,000 in Bitcoin prizes daily for completing tasks.
Balaji Srinivasan · Promise · 25 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
25 Mar 2021 |
Ethereum currently has a negative network effect: the more applications run on it, the higher the fees, which crowd out other uses.
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Mar 2021 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
4 Mar 2021 |
Facebook has deployed XLM-R, a model based on its RoBERTa architecture, to improve hate speech classifiers in multiple languages across Facebook and Instagram.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
4 Mar 2021 |
LeCun said Facebook AI had created and open sourced SEER, a billion-parameter self-supervised computer vision model that he described as proven to work efficiently with complex, high-dimensional image data.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
4 Mar 2021 |
As of March 2021, self-supervised learning had not yet brought computer vision the same improvements it has brought to natural language processing.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
4 Mar 2021 |
Starship SN10 landed intact (as of 4 March 2021).
Elon Musk · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
4 Mar 2021 |
The Barlow Twins method tries to minimize redundancy between the individual components of the embedding vectors.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 4 Mar 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
2 Mar 2021 |
The city of Starbase, Texas is being created (as of 2 March 2021).
Elon Musk · Factual · 2 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Factual |
14 Feb 2021 |
Scott Alexander said the NYT's characterisation was true only insofar as he once expressed agreement with an unrelated Charles Murray position: that telling poor people to learn to code is insufficient and a stable income is needed.
Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Feb 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
Feb 2021 |
One and a half billion children lost classroom time due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and some may never return.
Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
Feb 2021 |
The Gates Foundation's malaria team had to rethink bed net distribution because mass distribution events were no longer safe during the pandemic.
Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
Feb 2021 |
As of February 2021, the Gates Foundation had invested $1.75 billion in the fight against COVID-19.
Bill Gates · Factual · Feb 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Promise |
27 Jan 2021 |
Tesla will price the new Model S $10,000 higher than the old model.
Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
8 Jan 2021 |
Bonds are even more expensive by historical comparison than stocks.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 8 Jan 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2021 |
A cat has fewer than 1 billion neurons, while a dog has 2 billion.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2021 |
Since the 1990s, algorithms exist that learn oriented edge detectors fully unsupervised with the equivalent of a few minutes of real time.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2021 |
Self-supervised training of visual representations from video has not yet been successful.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Factual |
2021 |
Countries have historically given land to citizens, such as through the US Homestead Acts, to distribute resources people needed to succeed.
Sam Altman · Factual · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2021 |
In reinforcement learning the machine receives only a single scalar feedback, and only occasionally.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Factual |
2021 |
The joint-stock company allowed many people to align on a common goal and accomplish things no individual could.
Sam Altman · Factual · 2021 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Yann LeCun | Factual |
2021 |
The amount of image training data available for self-supervised learning is essentially unlimited, with billions of new images per day.
Yann LeCun · Factual · 2021 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
29 Dec 2020 |
A part of Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of Lebanese depositors who enjoyed steady and high returns.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 29 Dec 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
29 Dec 2020 |
The new US Dietary Guidelines were negotiated with lobbyists from the food industry, with sugar vendors treated as stakeholders.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 29 Dec 2020 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual |
26 Dec 2020 |
E. T. Jaynes said many times that probability is ignorance and that ignorance is a mental rather than physical property, and Yudkowsky repeated this often.
Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 26 Dec 2020 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
25 Dec 2020 |
The latest Tesla software update lets owners change the car horn sound to a goat, snake with saxophone, fart sound or holiday jingles.
Elon Musk · Factual · 25 Dec 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Warren Buffett | Factual |
15 Dec 2020 |
Large food manufacturers have done terrifically during the pandemic.
Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Dec 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
10 Dec 2020 |
Visa has suspended payments to Pornhub.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 10 Dec 2020 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Elon Musk | Factual |
22 Nov 2020 |
The rocket was due to fly its 7th flight on 2020-11-23, landing on the droneship Of Course I Still Love You.
Elon Musk · Factual · 22 Nov 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
17 Nov 2020 |
Once exposed to Covid, a person can infect and kill others.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 17 Nov 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
13 Nov 2020 |
Many central banks, including China's, Sweden's and the eurozone's, are starting to consider creating a central bank digital currency.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 13 Nov 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
28 Oct 2020 |
As of 2020 there is no off-the-shelf software platform for building a domestic robot comparable to a game engine for building video games.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 28 Oct 2020 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
25 Oct 2020 |
Ray Dalio has practiced meditation since 1968.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 25 Oct 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
25 Oct 2020 |
Dalio did not anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic and was taken by surprise by it.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 25 Oct 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
25 Oct 2020 |
In Connecticut, 22 percent of high school students (one in five) are disengaged or disconnected from school.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 25 Oct 2020 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
25 Oct 2020 |
Within countries, wealth gaps are widening, while between countries, wealth gaps are narrowing.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 25 Oct 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
25 Oct 2020 |
With interest rates near zero in the US and below zero in Europe and Japan, the implied multiple on a bond is very high, more than 100 times.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 25 Oct 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
25 Oct 2020 |
There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 25 Oct 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
25 Oct 2020 |
Gold has historically been an effective diversifier at certain times, such as when the monetary system broke down amid excessive money printing.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 25 Oct 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Ray Dalio | Factual |
25 Oct 2020 |
As of 2020, one cannot easily transact with cryptocurrency for many purchases.
Ray Dalio · Factual · 25 Oct 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Factual |
29 Sep 2020 |
Ronald Reagan dropped the FCC requirements for balanced reporting.
Vinod Khosla · Factual · 29 Sep 2020 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Ørsted | Promise |
9 Sep 2020 |
Henrik Poulsen will remain in office as Ørsted CEO until 31 December 2020.
Ørsted · Promise · 9 Sep 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ørsted | Factual |
9 Sep 2020 |
Mads Nipper led a transformation of Grundfos over the past six years that reinforced the company's position in an increasingly competitive market and strengthened its financial performance.
Ørsted · Factual · 9 Sep 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Ørsted | Promise |
9 Sep 2020 |
Mads Nipper will take office as Ørsted CEO on 1 January 2021.
Ørsted · Promise · 9 Sep 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Factual |
5 Sep 2020 |
Khosla said Fox News had confirmed reporting that contradicted Donald Trump's statements in the preceding day or so.
Vinod Khosla · Factual · 5 Sep 2020 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Vinod Khosla | Factual |
4 Sep 2020 |
The bradykinin hypothesis for Covid-19 suggests 10-plus potential treatments, many of which are already FDA approved.
Vinod Khosla · Factual · 4 Sep 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
14 Aug 2020 |
Rodney Brooks has said for years that adoption of autonomous vehicles will require changes to road infrastructure.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 14 Aug 2020 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Sam Altman | Factual |
29 Jul 2020 |
OpenAI has launched applications for its Fall 2020 Scholars program.
Sam Altman · Factual · 29 Jul 2020 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
Jul 2020 |
For COVID-19 survivors, the illness is a large economic drain, from lost working hours alone, not counting hospitalization costs.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 |
Biosecurity |