Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 6 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 28 Jul 2025 Full legalization of stablecoins means every other asset will go onchain. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 28 Jul 2025 Over 99% of valuable things, every financial and capital asset, will be secured onchain. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 28 Jul 2025 Legal status for onchain currency implies a legal path for onchain stocks, bonds and every other financial asset. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 28 Jul 2025 Food and clothing can't and won't be secured onchain. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Jul 2025 Technology
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Examples of concealed bias in GPT-5 will be discovered within days or months of release. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 GPT-5 will still make a significant number of obvious errors that are hard to predict. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 GPT-5 will not have reliable models of what it talks about that external programmers can access to feed downstream processes. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 In hindsight, LLMs like GPT-5 may be seen as only part of the eventual solution to AGI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Trustworthy, general AI, when it comes, will come from more structured systems with more built-in knowledge and at least some degree of explicit tools for reasoning and planning, as well as explicit knowledge, which GPT-type systems lack. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 GPT-5 by itself will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Retrospectives written in 2043 will conclude there was an initial overemphasis on LLMs and a shift back to more structured systems. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Scaling alone will prove useful only to a point. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Developers building virtual assistants and agents on GPT-5 will find they cannot map user language onto user intentions reliably enough. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 GPT-5 will be considerably better than GPT-4. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 Without external aids, GPT-5 won't beat Meta's Cicero at Diplomacy or drive a car reliably. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Google's main Gemini model track will become more general over time and eventually reach AGI. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 He said we may be on the cusp, in the next five to ten years, of having AI systems that can truly create around a player's imagination and dynamically change the story. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Asked whether it would be nuclear fusion, Demis Hassabis said he thinks fusion and solar are the two energy sources he would bet on. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Technology
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 In maybe just a couple of years, today's AI interfaces, products and systems will look quite archaic. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 AI will create new jobs that cannot be imagined today, as the internet did. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 AI's impact will be at least 10 times that of the Industrial Revolution. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 There is a 50% chance that AGI is achieved by 2030. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Over the next five to ten years, people who embrace AI technologies will become superhumanly productive in creative and technical industries. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 AI will have probably about 10 times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, occurring about 10 times faster. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 There is roughly a 50/50 chance that new breakthroughs are needed for AGI rather than scaling existing methods being enough. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Within the next five years we will probably have AI systems that can materially help with climate and energy problems. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 AI technology could be used to provide early warning of bad-actor uses such as bio or nuclear threats. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Taste or judgment in science will be one of the hardest things for AI to mimic or model. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Demis Hassabis said he does not really see the demand for AI compute slowing down, because as AI systems get better they will become more useful and there will be more demand for them. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 AI could be amazingly transformative for good. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Training may become the smaller part of overall AI compute required, compared with inference. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Asteroid mining will become a real activity. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Technology
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 People will have to start using devices like smart glasses and audio earbuds, and eventually maybe some sort of neural devices, to increase input and output bandwidth to maybe 100x today's. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Experiments could be sped up a hundredfold by doing most of the search in silico and validating in the wet lab. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Science and research methods
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Humanity could reach a Type I Kardashev civilization on roughly a hundred-year timescale. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Other global risks
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 We will enter an era of AI-generated interfaces that are probably personalized to each user. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 The probability of AI-caused human civilization destruction is definitely non-zero and probably non-negligible. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Demis Hassabis said he thinks fusion seems doable with the right reactor design and fast enough plasma control, and that he thinks both of those problems will get solved. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Technology
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 AI systems may eventually solve a Millennium Prize problem. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Managing AI risks may require international agreement on basic standards, at least between China and the U.S. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Human civilization will eventually spread to the stars if AI is got right and solves some of these problems. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Other global risks
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 Within five years of mid-2025, AI will be able to do 80% of any economically valuable job humans can do. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 The 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than ever seen before. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 Fusion and super-hot geothermal could make power cheaper than natural gas. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 Technology
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 Almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 By 2040 the biggest risk we might face is China using AI, both cyber and warfare AI and socially good AI like free doctors for everyone, to embed its political philosophy. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 The transition he described, a faster demise of Fortune 500 companies in the 2030s, will not come from existing companies; somebody new will reinvent this. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 Household humanoid robots will probably start with a narrow task such as cooking. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Jul 2025 By 2040 the need for people to work will go away. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Jul 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction Jul 2025 Quantum computing will be the next big accelerator in the cloud. Satya Nadella · Prediction · Jul 2025 Technology
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 10 Jun 2025 If current congressional plans go forward, the US federal deficit will be about 7% of GDP. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 10 Jun 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 10 Jun 2025 If the US budget deficit were cut to about 3% of GDP from about 7% now, US interest rates would come down. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 10 Jun 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 Amodei said he believes that if the measures Anthropic has advocated are executed well, they would slow China's progress enough to widen America's lead significantly over the next 3-5 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 Amodei worries that within 6-12 months a swarm with greater capabilities but a similar level of misalignment to the one in the OAI-HF incident could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 Amodei said he thinks a full international pacing or pause agreement, in which participating governments agree to substantially limit the overall rate of AI development, is unlikely to happen any time soon. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 Amodei said he believes that if slowing down bought an extra year or two before models reach critical levels of capability, and that time were used to advance alignment, the risk of something going seriously wrong could be greatly reduced. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 A coordinated pacing strategy would give frontier AI developers time for safety work without sacrificing commercial advantage or the US lead in AI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 Chips will be the main determinant of China's AI strength. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 5 Jun 2025 AI could cure most major diseases within 5-10 years, greatly accelerate economic growth, and usher in a renaissance of democracy and freedom. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 5 Jun 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 12 May 2025 Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 12 May 2025 If Democrats win three of the four named Senate races plus the presidency, they would probably have a trifecta in 2028. Nate Silver · Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 May 2025 When AI is doing everything else, venture capital may be one of the last remaining fields people still do. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 May 2025 Economics and markets
Own records only Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 May 2025 Marc Andreessen says the relationship-driven work of venture capital may be literally timeless, i.e. persist indefinitely despite AI. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 May 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 With AI, music and entertainment will become plentiful and personalized to the user and their mood. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 AI agents will protect and advise every consumer. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 Scientists will be supercharged: AI scientists, working alone or with humans, will become super scientists able to 10x or 100x their capability, creativity and volume of research. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 There will be new food and fertilizers, including better alternative protein and green fertilizer. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 Carbon emissions could become a smaller issue because entrepreneurs will develop and scale better technologies for cement, steel, agriculture, transport and power. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 AI will make it possible to have near-free AI doctors for every person and AI tutors for every child, available 24x7. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 Before 2030, AI could do 80% of 80% of all non-labor (expertise) work. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 Humanity will discover more natural resources than it consumes, including lithium, cobalt and copper. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 Most science will eventually be done by AI scientists. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 There will be a billion bipedal and other robots freeing humans from undesirable jobs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction May 2025 AI robots will manage household work at a lower monthly cost than a car. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · May 2025 AI capabilities
Mixed Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Congress would ultimately need two-thirds majorities to stop the tariffs because Trump has threatened a veto, and Silver said he believed Trump would follow through on those threats. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Silver said he did not think getting 60 votes in the Senate on measures against Trump's tariffs, enough to overcome a filibuster, would be so hard. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Nate Silver said he thought the events he was discussing in April 2025, which he called "a huge story" and "a fundamental change in the United States's relationship with the rest of the world", would be remembered as at least in line with the 1987 stock market crash. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 In April 2025, Silver said that at that point he would consider Democrats a little over 50% likely to retake the White House in 2028. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Trump's tariffs could be rescinded at any time, if not now then after the 2026 midterms or after the 2028 election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 There is only about a 20% chance that things go as fast as the speakers' scenario says. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Once a million robots a month are being produced, AIs will get many physical-world things done very quickly, including many physical experiments. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The speaker said that he and his co-authors theorise that AI labs are, partly consciously and partly accidentally, working toward an intelligence explosion in which AIs take over some AI research and speed it up. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said that he and the others he spoke for do not think the process being discussed will shoot to infinity in a hyperbolic fashion, and that they expect it to hit bottlenecks again. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said that "we" think the process under discussion will not "shoot to infinity" but will hit bottlenecks again, as previous processes did. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 It will be hard to maintain classical liberalism during difficult AI arms races in times of crisis. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said he thinks AI companies will literally train their AIs to be more cooperative. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 He is less sure about requiring labs to publish safety cases, because he thinks they would kind of fake it or publish a safety case made for public consumption that is not their real one. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The AI arms race framing that people already use will have intensified by the time of superintelligence. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander suggested it might be useful to think of 'our timelines' as being like 2070 to 2100, with the last 50 to 70 years of that progress happening during 2027 to 2028 because of what he described as an intelligence explosion. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 About a year after superintelligences start wanting robots, they will be producing a million robots per month (AI 2027 scenario estimate). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 If a Dyson sphere is achieved within five years, it will look like AIs simulated more things than humans in a gradually increasing way. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The AI-assisted research progress will start to pay off in 2027, the year the scenario is named after. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 There will be incredible video games after superintelligent AI. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The long-running trend of accelerating research progress will not stop. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 As AIs get smarter, failure modes from misunderstanding training intent will decrease. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
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Balaji Srinivasan

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“the full legalization of stablecoins means that every other asset goes onchain.”

Balaji Srinivasan, author 28 July 2025 All Property Becomes Cryptography (balajis.com)

Full legalization of stablecoins means every other asset will go onchain.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Prediction with no horizon, and 'every other asset' is sweeping and undefined.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Full legalization of stablecoins means every other asset will go onchain.” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a621c8bfd454, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a621c8bfd454

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.