Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

340 claims · page 4 of 4

340 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 There will be a mix of biofuels in the marketplace. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 He did not believe clean coal would win in every area, because clean coal technologies would be so expensive that many renewables would come in cheaper. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 2007 The S&P 500 could easily finish 2008 with a negative return, dragging down crowded value-oriented investment funds. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's site will have more community features where customers help other customers make purchase decisions. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Some e-commerce businesses will fail in 2001. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Exponential-outlook views of the economy will prevail gradually over the next several years, producing a strong continuing updraft for the stock market. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Vinod Khosla

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Prediction Technology

“Not only that, even if Germany switched over completely to photovoltaics, unless India and China adopted them, we are not going to see a change in the trajectory of climate change.”

Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, interviewee 28 September 2007 Interviews - Vinod Khosla (Frontline Heat) (PBS Frontline)

Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is a counterfactual about relative emissions. Germany never switched completely to PV, so judge the reasoning against emissions data from around 2007 and the trend since. True: authoritative data (IEA, Global Carbon Project, UNFCCC inventories) show Germany's power-sector emissions are a small share of global emissions (a few percent or less). They must also show that global emissions growth was and is driven mostly by China and India (with other developing economies), so that removing Germany's power emissions without China and India acting would not materially bend the global emissions or warming trajectory. Mostly true: the core point holds, but the evidence shows China and India are not the only decisive emitters (for example, the US or other developing countries matter about as much), so naming only these two overstates their role. Mixed: credible analyses are genuinely split on whether Germany's switch alone would change the trajectory. Mostly false: Germany's switch alone would have a modest but measurable effect on the global trajectory, or adoption by China and India is shown not to be necessary for a change. False: evidence shows Germany switching completely to PV would by itself substantially change the global emissions or warming trajectory.

Evidence

  1. Key Targets 2025 Global Carbon Project (Global Carbon Budget) · 1 January 2026
    “The average growth in global fossil CO₂ emissions peaked at around 3 % per year during the 2000s, driven by the rapid growth in emissions in China.”
  2. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “For this year, China represents 32% of global CO2 emissions. Their emissions in 2024 are projected to increase by a relatively small 0.2% (with an uncertainty range of -1.6% to +2%), driven by a small rise in emissions from coal (0.3%) and a large rise in natural gas emissions (8%).”
  3. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “The US represents 13% of global emissions this year – though is responsible for a much larger portion of historical emissions and associated atmospheric accumulation of CO2.”
  4. CO2 Emissions – Global Energy Review 2025 – Analysis - IEA International Energy Agency · 19 October 2026
    “CO2 emissions grew in emerging market and developing economies and international aviation and marine bunkers, outweighing reductions from advanced economies led by the European Union, Japan and the United States.”
  5. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “For this year, China represents 32% of global CO2 emissions. Their emissions in 2024 are projected to increase by a relatively small 0.2% (with an uncertainty range of -1.6% to +2%), driven by a small rise in emissions from coal (0.3%) and a large rise in natural gas emissions (8%).”
  6. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “India represents 8% of global emissions. In 2024, Indian emissions are projected to increase by 4.6% (with a range from 3.0% to 6.1%), with a 4.5% increase in emissions from coal”
  7. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “The rest of the world (excluding aviation) represents 38% of global emissions. Emissions are expected to grow by 1.1% in 2024 (ranging from -1.0% to +3.3%), with increases in emissions from coal (0.5%), oil (0.5%), natural gas (2.2%) and cement (2%).”
  8. Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief · 13 November 2024
    “The EU represents 7% of global emissions. EU emissions are expected to decrease by 3.8% in 2024, driven by a 15.8% decline in coal emissions, a 1.3% decline in natural gas emissions, and a 3.5% decline in cement emissions.”
  9. GHG emissions of all world countries European Commission, Joint Research Centre (EDGAR) · 30 June 2024
    “China, the United States, India, the EU27, Russia and Brazil were the world’s largest GHG emitters in 2023. Together they account for 49.8% of global population, 63.2% of global gross domestic product, 64.2% of global fossil fuel consumption and 62.7% of global GHG emissions.”
  10. GHG emissions of all world countries European Commission, Joint Research Centre (EDGAR) · 30 June 2024
    “With only two exceptions, 2009 (global financial crisis) and 2020 (COVID-19), global GHG emissions have grown steadily since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to the increase in fossil CO2 emissions by China, India, and other emerging economies.”
  11. 2022 Global Carbon Project · 11 November 2022
    “China 31%, United States 14%, EU27 8%, India 7%, Russia 5%, and Japan 3%”
  12. The Global Carbon Project (GCP) releases the Global Carbon Budget 2025 National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan), reporting Global Carbon Project · 13 November 2025
    “Emissions in China and India are projected to grow much less in 2025 compared to their growth over the past decade (2015-2024), while emissions in the USA and European Union are also projected to grow this year, partly due to weather conditions.”

Reasoning

The evidence supports the core point. Growth in global fossil CO2 emissions since the 2000s was driven mainly by China, India and other emerging economies (E1, E10), and emerging-economy growth has outweighed cuts in advanced economies (E4). The whole EU accounts for only about 7–8% of global emissions (E8, E11), so Germany's power sector, as one part of that, is at most a small share. However, no source gives a Germany-specific figure. The US (13–14%) and the rest of the world taken together (38%) also account for substantial shares of global emissions (E3, E7, E9, E11), and E10 attributes growth to other emerging economies as well as China and India, so naming only China and India somewhat overstates their role.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them.” (said 28 September 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b8dc2bd4dbac, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b8dc2bd4dbac

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.