Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

446 claims · page 4 of 5

446 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 UMG does not need to acquire catalogs to continue its strong growth and achieve its medium-term guidance from its last Capital Markets Day. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Dec 2021 The US can build 6000 fusion boilers by 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 Technology
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Dec 2021 Khosla said he was optimistic that all coal and natural gas plants "in this country" can be replaced before 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 Technology
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Within roughly 10 to 20 years, India could become an intermediate between American anarchy and total Chinese control. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 India may be a big component of the decentralized side in the China versus decentralized world split by around 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Srinivasan said he thinks that by 2040 or 2050, maybe sooner, there could in theory be robotic, autarkic farms run by giving instructions to robotic field hands. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 The DeFi matrix will be to the 2020s what the social graph was to the previous decade. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Drones and similar technologies may make government enforcement of compliance cheaper, a trend he places around the late 2030s to 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Oct 2021 Zuckerberg stated a hope, not a firm prediction: that if "we all work at it," within the next decade the metaverse would reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce and support jobs for millions of creators and developers. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 Technology
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Oct 2021 Zuckerberg expressed the hope ("Our hope is that...") that within the next decade the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 Technology
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Oct 2021 Within five to ten years, much of this metaverse technology will be mainstream and many people will daily create and inhabit detailed, convincing virtual worlds. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 Technology
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted expects its average return on capital employed for 2020-2027 to be 11-12%. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow approx. 12% a year on average in 2020-2027, reaching DKK 35-40 billion in 2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 2 Jun 2021 Approx. 90% on average of Ørsted's EBITDA for 2020-2027 will come from regulated or contract-based activities. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 A shift from a standing military to a citizen military will have to wait until around midcentury, when warfare is all drones. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 He said he did not think it would be great to be a Chinese American in four or five years, as a new Cold War heats up, and added that he hoped it would not come to that. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 Balaji Srinivasan said he thinks India is going to be the dark horse of this decade, and that this is not priced in. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 In some country, probably the US, the cloud will burst sometime in the 2020s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 Probably by 2025, and by 2030 at the latest, Zoom users will have audio and video filters that make them sound and look like a different person. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 Balaji Srinivasan said he thinks that after the 2020s, being incorporated in the US will be considered a major vulnerability. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 There is about a 30 percent chance of a firewall attack on Bitcoin, over a timeframe the interviewer framed as the next five years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Aug 2020 For autonomous vehicles, the 'short run' of overestimated expectations will last 30 or more years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Aug 2020 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Kurzweil said he believes that by the end of the decade we will be able to realistically model all biology and simulate interventions for diseases without the need for human trials. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The institutional failure over the coronavirus pandemic will have effects through the rest of the 2020s. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Dec 2019 Startup cities will be a major trend of the 2020s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Not yet due Nassim Taleb Prediction 29 Dec 2019 The probability that any of the books shown in the linked post, except perhaps Dalrymple's and Murakami's, will survive a decade is very small. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 29 Dec 2019 Other
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 Artificial general intelligence will probably not be achieved within five to 10 years of 2019. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 Gary Marcus guessed that artificial general intelligence would arrive somewhere between 20 and 100 years from 2019, maybe closer to 50, and said this was a wide confidence interval. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Machines will achieve world-class scientific reasoning within the next 500 years (by 2519). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks suspects that human-level AI is much more complex than detecting gravity waves, controlled fusion or chemistry, and that it will take hundreds of years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks said that, of the practical systems built since 2006, the biggest practical impact for most people recently, and likely over the next couple of decades, is on speech transliteration systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks said that perhaps, as he tends to believe, getting there is just really hard and will take a hundred years or more of concerted effort. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 With 25% of entitlements utilized, Ward Village will offer substantial continued value creation for Howard Hughes over the next decade. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Token-based financing at a very small, individual level will take about 20 years (perhaps 10), not 5, to be realized. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Eventually, humanoid robots combined with a VR bodysuit will let people script and control a robot from around the world, maybe in 10 years, seeing through the robot's eyes and moving its arms through the bodysuit. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Interesting telepresence capabilities are about 5 to 10 years away. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There is a real possibility that a flying car will not be purchasable by any US resident with enough money even by 2050 (original prediction: not before 2036). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The generally agreed 'next big thing' in AI beyond deep learning will be something already being worked on with published papers, emerging no earlier than 2023 and by 2027. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 No self driving car will be faced with an instance of the trolley problem until beyond 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Flying cars will reach 0.01% of total US cars no earlier than 2042. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There will be no commercially viable passenger-carrying hyperloop systems within the next 32 years (by 2050). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks said he thinks landing cargo on Mars by 2026 is optimistic, though it might be pushed to happen as a statement that it can be done rather than for a pressing practical reason. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A flying car will not be available for purchase by any US resident with enough money before 2036, and there is a real possibility this will not happen at all by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A major city banning parking and human-driven cars from part of the city will be the starting point of a turn toward driverless cars, no earlier than 2027 and by 2031. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 The Singularity will occur in 2045, when humans multiply their effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the AI they created. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 An AI will pass a valid Turing test and achieve human levels of intelligence in 2029, the date Kurzweil has consistently predicted. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 People will still be in the loop worrying about physical wiring of robotics and AI systems for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Widespread deployment of self-driving cars will take decades, not years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Real deployment of self-driving cars could come four, five or six decades after 1987. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Because many of the non-self-driving cars bought today will likely still be on the road in 2040, this puts an inherent limit on how soon all cars will be self-driving. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Not yet due Nassim Taleb Prediction 10 Jul 2017 A book that is interesting today and would have been interesting 20 years ago will probably still be interesting 20 years from now. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 After five years oil stock prospects will be more questionable, and beyond 10 years much worse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 On his suggested 20-year path, developed country equities will return 5.0% instead of GMO's current 5.7% normal assumption. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Implications for pension funds over the next 20 years will be similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls over 7 years, or moves sideways for 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Grantham suggested a 20-year path in which rates return two-thirds of the way to normal, so that T-bills would yield around 1.2-1.5% real again. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Three mean-reverting paths yield similar 20-year returns: 2.4% a year (7-year slump), 2.6% (2-year crash), 2.8% (20-year whimper). Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Any assumptions including a modest reduction in abnormally high corporate profits give a very disappointing 20-year return path. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Corporate returns will slowly drop back two-thirds of the way to their old normal over 20 years (model assumption). Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 The Fed and central banks' practice of trying to influence the economy through lower rates is unlikely to go away entirely, even over 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Powerful AI could be built as early as 2026, though it could take much longer. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Most mental illness can probably be cured with AI-accelerated neuroscience. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei thinks AI will similarly accelerate the rate of neuroscience advances, so that the framework of '100 years of progress in 5-10 years' applies to neuroscience in the same way it does to biology. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 The human economy may continue to make sense a little past the point where AI reaches a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter'. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that powerful AI could at least 10x the rate of these biological discoveries, giving the next 50-100 years of biological progress in 5-10 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that diseases like PTSD, depression, schizophrenia and addiction can be figured out and very effectively treated. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 While AI is better at only 90% of a given job, the remaining 10% will make humans highly leveraged, raise compensation and create new complementary human jobs. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI-accelerated neuroscience is likely to vastly improve treatments for, or cure, most mental illness and expand cognitive and mental freedom. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei thinks 5-10 years after powerful AI is a reasonable timeline for a good fraction (maybe 50%) of AI-driven health benefits to reach even the poorest countries in the world. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Mind uploading is almost certainly possible in principle but likely will not be achieved within the 5-10 year window of powerful AI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Because cancer death rates have fallen about 2% per year for decades, humanity is on track to eliminate most cancer in the 21st century at the current pace of science. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 8 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicts that within about 15 years (by around 2030) humans will put gateways to the cloud in their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 8 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that by 2030 human thinking will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Malaria will not be completely eradicated by 2030, but all tools needed to eradicate it will exist by then. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In 15 years the world will be poised to eradicate malaria as smallpox was and polio is being. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 More parents in poor countries will know their children aren't going to die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online classes, now often disconnected from career paths, will become linked to career requirements. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online education technology will advance even more over the next 15 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, lives of people in poor countries will improve more than anyone else's. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Language-learning software will let students speak aloud and give feedback on pronunciation. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Before starting primary school, children will be able to use a parent's smartphone to learn numbers and letters. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Learning software will detect when a student struggles and adjust to their pace. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Bill Gates said "we think" the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Africa can achieve food security by 2030. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the next 15 years digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Over the next decade, we estimate the company can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow its earnings per share by more than 20% per year.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author 2022 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square 2021 Annual Letter to Shareholders (GuruFocus)

Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

deadline 2032 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year.” (said 2022). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_997101922cb2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_997101922cb2

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.