Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 4 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Gates said he believes health care can be improved dramatically in all countries by using AI both to accelerate the development of innovations and directly in the delivery of health care. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Bill Gates said he believes that within the next decade the world will get back on track and enter a new era of unprecedented progress. Bill Gates · Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 Falling AI token prices will drive huge demand for AI. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 It is very likely that AI chips will become cheap and abundant within five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 With hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars being invested, the unit cost of AI companies will drop sharply over the next decade. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 Andreessen said he tends to think the AI industry will be structured similarly to the computer industry, with a very small number of giant models running in huge data centers and a cascade of smaller models below. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 AI models will cascade down to very small models running on single chips embedded in every physical object. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 The smartest AI models will always be at the top, while small models will be greater in number. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 7 Jan 2026 Andreessen said he highly doubts that the product forms people use today (as of January 2026) will be the same in five or ten years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jan 2026 AI deployment for real-world impact will evolve from standalone models to systems. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 4 Jan 2026 Future AI systems will build rich scaffolds that orchestrate multiple models and agents, account for memory and entitlements, and enable rich and safe tool use. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Specialized manipulation tasks using special purpose grippers, materials, planning, sensing and some machine learning may lead to enormous application markets. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Most of the early humanoid robot companies will quietly shut down and disappear, as happened with self driving car companies. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Lack of robotics progress will negatively affect the quality of life of newly elderly people for the next couple of decades. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Without new types of mechanical systems, walking humanoid robots will remain too unsafe to be in close proximity to real humans. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 For self driving taxis, human intervention rate will be the key metric because it determines profitability. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 In the next ten years deployable robot dexterity may improve markedly, but not in the way the current humanoid robot hype suggests. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Boeing's Starliner will fly again, potentially twice in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Successful quantum computers will directly emulate physical systems for specialized problem classes rather than run conventional general computation on quantum hardware. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 There will be many interesting demonstrations, but ten years is too short a period for a clear winner to emerge. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The number of people launched to orbit in 2026 may not rise above the high twenties, despite the Artemis II flight. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Tesla is not on a path to becoming a real self driving taxi service. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 New companies will become specialists in boxing in and controlling LLMs. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 No clear winner among new neural computation approaches beyond linear threshold systems will emerge by 2036, though there will be multiple candidates. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The successful humanoid robots of the future will be very different from those being hyped today. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 It seems likely that Waymo has a good shot at getting operations running in five additional US cities (Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando) in 2026, which would double its total number of US cities to 10. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin is likely to come close to achieving what it says it intends to do and when for suborbital and orbital flights. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Mostly false Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The new dexterity in robot manipulation may turn out to be special purpose rather than human-hand-like. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Over the next ten years there will be a lot of activity developing guard rails around LLMs to make them useful. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The trends do not look like EVs will reach 12% of US new car sales in 2027, even with a huge uptick. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks seriously doubts a human will land on Mars before 2040, and says the earliest Mars settlement will not happen before 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks says he is confident that he is right on his points (a) and (b) from his blog post, at least for the next ten years; the material does not say what (a) and (b) are. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Humanoid robots may not turn out to be the future of robotics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Weekly suborbital paying-customer flights (Blue Origin) may become feasible by 2028 if customer demand exists. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks does not think any robot able to do the last 10 yards of delivery from the street will be deployed this decade, and perhaps not even demonstrated. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Human spaceflight will change from its stasis in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Rodney Brooks said he does not think Jonathan's company will reach its goal of general purpose humanoid robots even within Jonathan's lifetime. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Putting humans on Mars will take much longer than putting a crewed colony on the Moon. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks said that press releases about two basic human-piloted capabilities, including a point-to-point test flight in Dubai, suggest to him that the company is still years away from operating an actual air taxi service. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Private space stations may lead to more humans flying on orbital flights than the current roughly 28 per year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The current hype does not mean that results over the next decade will pay back the massive investments going into AI and robotics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 There will likely be a jump in the number of Blue Origin suborbital flights in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Deployable robot dexterity will remain far worse than human hands beyond 2036. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 If both Waymo and Zoox fail, self driving car deployment in the US will grind to a halt. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 The SpaceX Starship-based crewed Moon landing will not happen in 2027, and may never happen. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Brooks is doubtful that a new quantum error-correction method will emerge, be fully tested and reach production at scale within the next ten years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Space station building will pick up markedly over the next few years in anticipation of the ISS's end. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Companies that can control their LLMs will be able to deliver usable products. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Machine learning will not provide the force sensing and control capabilities needed for safe elder-care robots. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 In the US, Waymo and Zoox are the players that will determine whether self driving cars succeed or are abandoned. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 What these companies are working towards is not happening, even at a tiny scale, anytime soon. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Waymo looks to have a shot at succeeding and is unlikely to lose first place in the self driving taxi race. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Over the next 10 years the winning quantum computers will be those solving real problems in materials science, chemistry and physics. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 Blue Origin may make a soft landing on the Moon in 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2026 LLMs that can explain which data led to which outputs will be key to deployments that are not annoying, dangerous or stupid. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In 2026 humanoid domestic robots like Tesla's Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos with very little actual product. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Although valuations may rise before falling, the September Oracle craze and subsequent events will in hindsight be seen as the beginning of the end of the AI bubble. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Gary Marcus does not expect his 2026 predictions to be as on target as his 2025 predictions were. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 No country will take a decisive lead in the generative AI race in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 2025 will be remembered as the year of the peak AI bubble and the moment Wall Street began losing confidence in generative AI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Trump may eventually distance himself from AI because of the backlash. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic AI will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 (or 2027). Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 In the 2026 US midterm elections, AI will be an election issue for the first time. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction Jan 2026 Backlash to generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate in 2026. Gary Marcus · Prediction · Jan 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2026 Thiel said that in theory AI could be slowed with genuine, deep cooperation across the whole world, but that he thinks this would require something like a one world government with real teeth and real force. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Dec 2025 Western states will eventually become so dysfunctional that they effectively cease to exist, after which a new era begins. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Dec 2025 Other global risks
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 22 Dec 2025 American real estate will become more affordable only for those outside the rapidly inflating dollar economy, living abroad or holding hard currencies. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 22 Dec 2025 The compromise outcome may be that the nominal value of US real estate rises through money printing while the real value of the dollar falls. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Dec 2025 In that failed state, the combination of targeted violence and untargeted anarchy will get much worse. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Dec 2025 Other global risks
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 11 Dec 2025 Anti-technology sentiment will become the new anti-capitalism, with Kaczynski as its leading thinker in the 21st century. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 11 Dec 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 6 Dec 2025 Institutions matter and, in addition to their usual effects, will shape both of the factors Cowen labels #1 and #2 over the longer run. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 6 Dec 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Dec 2025 If frontier AI models plateau, on-device inference and open source models could fully catch up to them. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Dec 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Nov 2025 In the 2028 US election, the blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) sides will align against tech. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Nov 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Prediction 25 Nov 2025 The speakers said they expect AlphaFold 3, developed together with Isomorphic Labs, to drive a transformation of the drug discovery process and usher in an era of "digital biology". Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 25 Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 12 Nov 2025 The top destination for Indian talent may shift to the UAE and Middle East, with Singapore possibly second. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 12 Nov 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Nov 2025 QE-type liquidity would typically push real yields down, push P/E multiples up, and especially boost valuations of long-duration assets (tech, AI, growth) and inflation hedges such as gold. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 10 Nov 2025 Buffett said that, with a little luck, Berkshire should need only five or six CEOs over the next century. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 9 Nov 2025 The Bitcoin-to-gold exchange rate may become the true price (benchmark) of Bitcoin. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 9 Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction Nov 2025 Putting AI into physical objects that move around the world will bring closer an integrated intellectual and physical experience. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Nov 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction Nov 2025 Robots with AI will be able to gather much more real-world data. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Nov 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction Nov 2025 The US economy could follow one of three possible paths going into 2026, and the most likely scenario is also the most positive. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction Nov 2025 He is pretty convinced that AI models will clear the bar of human-level creativity. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Nov 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Oct 2025 By 2035 the economy will be hugely deflationary. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 12 Oct 2025 If the West's debt proves unfixable and the West falls, the Internet would endure. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 12 Oct 2025 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 8 Oct 2025 If AI produced hyper-acceleration of productivity, the result would be hyper-deflation of prices. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 8 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 8 Oct 2025 AI-driven employment shifts will not happen at anywhere near the velocity people expect. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 8 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 The benefits to society from AI will be gigantic. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 Within roughly 10 to 20 years, giant gigawatt-scale data centers will start being built in space. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 Within the next couple of decades, space-based data centers will be able to beat the cost of terrestrial data centers. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 AI will change every industry. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 Within the next couple of decades, millions of people will be living in space. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 Technology
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 AI will raise the quality and productivity of every company. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 6 Oct 2025 AI will affect every company in the world. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 6 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 29 Sep 2025 OpenAI's buildout will also have to be funded by its capital, namely equity and debt it can raise. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 29 Sep 2025 The roughly $400 billion cost of OpenAI's 10 gigawatts will have to be largely funded by OpenAI's revenues from offtake. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 29 Sep 2025 In the future, data processing now run on CPUs (such as SQL on structured data) will move to AI data processing. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 29 Sep 2025 Video transcoder and SmartNIC ASIC markets will never become very large. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Jensen Huang Prediction 29 Sep 2025 OpenAI is likely to become the next multi-trillion dollar hyperscale company. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 29 Sep 2025 Economics and markets
Back to the list

Bill Gates

Open its page

Prediction AI capabilities

“I believe we can improve health care dramatically in all countries by using AI not only to accelerate the development of innovations but directly in the delivery of health care.”

Bill Gates, author of his annual letter 9 January 2026 Read Bill Gates's 2026 annual letter in full (Fortune)

Gates said he believes health care can be improved dramatically in all countries by using AI both to accelerate the development of innovations and directly in the delivery of health care.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Vague 'can dramatically improve' claim with no horizon or metric.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Gates said he believes health care can be improved dramatically in all countries by using AI both to accelerate the development of innovations and directly in the delivery of health care.” (said 9 January 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_dafae9e8779d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_dafae9e8779d

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.