1,587 claims · page 4 of 16
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Promise | 18 Feb 2025 | Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027. Dario Amodei · Promise · 18 Feb 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 18 Feb 2025 | When Anthropic was founded, its founders made mechanistic interpretability a central part of the company's direction, focused on LLMs. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 26 Jan 2025 | Marc Andreessen popularized two memes, though he may not have invented them. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 26 Jan 2025 | Marc Andreessen has seen a newspaper columnist get a CEO fired but has not seen a CEO get a columnist fired. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 26 Jan 2025 | Substack started from scratch and declared up front that it would be a free speech platform. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 26 Jan 2025 | Marc Andreessen said he politely declined to design the 'breast detection algorithm' he had imagined he would have to build. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 26 Jan 2025 | Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg said that it was probably over about a few years that he started coming to the conclusion that Meta would need to change something about a program he described as destroying trust, especially in the United States. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg controls the majority of the voting power at Meta. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Meta added disappearing messages to its messaging products partly for security reasons. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 10 Jan 2025 | Requiring more confidence for takedowns will dramatically reduce the number of people whose Meta accounts are removed by mistake. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Meta put in place a fact-checking program that empowered third-party fact checkers to mark content false, in response to critiques about misinformation. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 10 Jan 2025 | Changing Meta's content filters to require higher confidence and precision will reduce the vast majority of Meta's censorship mistakes. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | After 2016 Zuckerberg gave too much deference to media who said Trump's election was due to misinformation. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg was worried from the beginning about Meta becoming the decider of what is true. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Meta generally deferred to the government on some policies that Zuckerberg probably would not follow knowing what he knows now. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Before Meta updated its policies, a statement calling for women to be excluded from certain combat roles could not be posted on its platforms because it called for exclusion of a protected category. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg was sympathetic to temporary speech curbs at the beginning of COVID. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg said that there are emails and that the emails have been published. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg communicates with only a few people over SMS, mostly using WhatsApp, Instagram Direct or Messenger. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg said he thinks Meta's current approach will be pretty durable going forward, because the company has been pressure-tested on these issues for about eight to ten years. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 1 Jan 2025 | Marcus coined in 2022 the notion that AI might be 'hitting a wall', which later became widespread in outlets such as CNN, The Verge and the Wall Street Journal. Gary Marcus · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | The duration of Scion's single-name corporate CDS portfolio is roughly 3.5 years. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion's investment in Blue Ocean Re has largely been wound up. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 2025 | A truly staggering insurance loss will occur someday, and there is no guarantee there will be only one per year. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | A number of the companies covered by Scion's credit protection contracts are engaged in the mortgage business. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion's credit protection contracts cover $4.27 billion in notional value, largely on financial companies. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Warren Buffett | Promise | 2025 | Buffett will personally match whatever is raised through the sale of the 20 autographed "Charlie" books for the Stephen Center. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | As of the time of the interview, Scion held none of the listed positions. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Prediction | 2025 | The Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will continue to fall as its equity, now over $14.7 million, grows. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | Warren Buffett received an education at three universities. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 2025 | Tesla has investigated every possible way to achieve increased voting control for Elon Musk. Elon Musk · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion's agreements with counterparties required daily collateral valuation in both directions. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | Berkshire's insurance operations are not dependent on reinsurers. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 2025 | Buffett said he expects that Greg and his eventual successors will hold Berkshire's Japanese position for many decades, and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five companies in the future. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Prediction | 2025 | Without an automatic 1% asset management fee, the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio will generally be no greater than 1%. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | When buying Forest River, Warren Buffett asked Pete Liegl what his compensation should be and said he would accept whatever Liegl named. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Michael Burry earned a bachelor's degree in economics at UCLA and then an MD at Vanderbilt School of Medicine. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 2025 | Over time Berkshire's ownership stake in all five Japanese companies will likely increase somewhat. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion COO and General Counsel Steve Druskin and CFO Zaeed Kalsheker led a top-to-bottom reorganization of Scion's back office over the past year. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | Becky Quick and her CNBC crew transmit Berkshire's meetings worldwide and archive much Berkshire-related material. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | Greg Abel has met many times with the managements of the five Japanese trading companies, and Buffett regularly follows their progress. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 2025 | Microsoft Office was first created for the Mac, before Windows existed. Satya Nadella · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | Carrie, whose grandfather was Bill Kizer, Sr., refused any payment for her extensive work on the new "Charlie" edition. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 2025 | Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Blue Ocean Re was set up in late 2005 to take advantage of what Burry called an extraordinary pricing ability in the retrocessional reinsurance space. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Burry's main contact at Goldman Sachs was Veronica, a front-end salesperson. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Promise | 2025 | Berkshire's 2025 annual meeting will have no movie and will convene earlier, at 8 a.m. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Burry said "we" had some communication difficulties with "the counterparties" over "that summer", and said he did not recall the specific dates. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Factual | 2025 | When Nadella became CEO in 2014, Microsoft was behind in both mobile and cloud. Satya Nadella · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | In 2024 Berkshire made four payments to the IRS totaling $26.8 billion. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Guidance | 2025 | Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million. Warren Buffett · Guidance · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Michael Burry keeps the vast majority of his net worth invested in the Scion Value Fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | In 2024, 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings, yet Berkshire did better than Buffett expected. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Prediction | 2025 | Burry said he expected additional distributions of capital and profits from the Blue Ocean Re investment during the remainder of the year of the letter. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion did not pay $10,000,000 for the credit default swap; that was only its notional value. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | At the start of the second quarter, Scion Qualified Value Fund held $612 million in assets under management and Scion Value Fund held $133 million. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 2025 | Berkshire's insurance float is likely to grow a bit over time and, with intelligent underwriting and some luck, has a reasonable prospect of being costless. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Michael Burry said he remembers the responses he got when he claimed in 1999 that it was a bubble. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Factual | 31 Dec 2024 | Musk stated that legacy media outlets did not merely ignore President Biden's mental state but made false statements about it. Elon Musk · Factual · 31 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 31 Dec 2024 | Musk said he thinks SpaceX has a decent chance of solving a reusable orbital heat shield in 2025 and solving it well in 2026. Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 31 Dec 2024 | Within a few years SpaceX direct-to-cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to more satellites and better technology. Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 31 Dec 2024 | X is the number 1 source of news on Earth. Elon Musk · Factual · 31 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 30 Dec 2024 | Musk said almost every legacy media outlet knowingly falsely described Biden as "sharp as a tack" just before the 2024 presidential debate, at a time when, he said, it was obvious Biden had dementia. Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 30 Dec 2024 | The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election. Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 30 Dec 2024 | Community Notes only shows a note when people who have historically disagreed agree that it is valid. Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Factual | 30 Dec 2024 | No one at X, including Elon Musk, has editorial control over Community Notes. Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Jensen Huang | Factual | 29 Dec 2024 | After Nvidia's first graphics chip attempt failed, Huang says the company's engineers, together with Chris and Curtis, pivoted to the right way of doing things. Jensen Huang · Factual · 29 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Factual | 29 Dec 2024 | Huang has never seen a company whose earnings increased without it hiring more people. Jensen Huang · Factual · 29 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | On the podcast Cowen was describing, which he contrasted with Conversations with Tyler, neither host interviews the other; they go back and forth. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | The podcast Cowen was describing, which he said had about seven episodes and in which neither host interviews the other, is all economics, unlike Conversations with Tyler. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | Tyler Cowen said he thinks the episode with Peter is typically the most downloaded episode for many people, and that it is his pick. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | Tyler Cowen said he now has an electronic payments network set up. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Promise | 21 Dec 2024 | OpenAI is giving all Plus users unlimited Sora access via the relaxed queue over the 2024 holidays. Sam Altman · Promise · 21 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 10 Dec 2024 | Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly. Scott Alexander · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 10 Dec 2024 | OpenAI significantly underestimated demand for Sora at its December 2024 launch. Sam Altman · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 5 Dec 2024 | OpenAI launched ChatGPT Pro at $200/month with unlimited usage and a more capable mode for using o1. Sam Altman · Factual · 5 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Sam Altman | Promise | 4 Dec 2024 | OpenAI will hold a livestream with a launch or demo each weekday during its '12 days of openai' starting 2024-12-05 at 10am Pacific. Sam Altman · Promise · 4 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | Dec 2024 | Hassabis's first career was writing AI for commercial computer games. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Demis Hassabis | Factual | Dec 2024 | Hassabis's team has practised open science and open access with all of its scientific work. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | Dec 2024 | Hassabis was fascinated as a young chess player by the programming of chess computers used at training camps. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | Dec 2024 | Hassabis ended up wanting to program his own AI systems after encountering chess computers. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | Dec 2024 | Theme Park had AI at the heart of its gameplay. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | Dec 2024 | Hassabis first came across the protein folding problem as an undergraduate at Cambridge in the 1990s. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | Dec 2024 | Demis Hassabis learned to play chess at age four. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Satya Nadella | Promise | 19 Nov 2024 | Microsoft will offer $4 million in rewards in a new hacking event focused on securing cloud and AI, culminating in an in-person event next year. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | 19 Nov 2024 | A customer using Copilot to draft incident reports now completes analysis in a day that previously took weeks. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 19 Nov 2024 | With point-in-time restore, Windows 365 customers can be up and running in minutes and roll back a Cloud PC to its exact earlier state. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | 19 Nov 2024 | Copilot responses are more than two times faster on average and response satisfaction has improved nearly threefold. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 19 Nov 2024 | Windows 365 Link is admin-less and password-less, with security configurations enabled by default that cannot be turned off. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 19 Nov 2024 | Microsoft is bringing SQL Server natively to Fabric with Microsoft Fabric Databases. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 19 Nov 2024 | Microsoft will ship the announced GitHub Copilot agent innovations in the months following the November 2024 keynote. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 19 Nov 2024 | Microsoft announced mobile application management for Windows 365 on iOS and Android. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 19 Nov 2024 | Microsoft announced that the Windows App is coming to Android. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | Models becoming lazy in coding is not due to Anthropic trying to save on compute or to seasonal effects, but to the difficulty of steering model behaviour. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | Anthropic released computer use first in API form rather than to consumers, partly for safety reasons. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | Amodei first joined the AI field in late 2014, working at Baidu with Andrew Ng. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | Anthropic has almost a thousand employees, and its risk policy is meant to make sure they understand that taking these risks seriously is one of the company's highest priorities, if not the highest. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | For the most part, with some narrow exceptions, deployed models are not changing after release. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | Anthropic has never changed the weights of a deployed model without telling anyone. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
“Anthropic is doubling down on interpretability, and we have a goal of getting to “interpretability can reliably detect most model problems” by 2027.”
Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, writing on his own site 18 February 2025 The Urgency of Interpretability (darioamodei.com)
Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
deadline 2027 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027.” (said 18 February 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_0940ba58bcfd, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0940ba58bcfd
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.