Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

446 claims · page 3 of 5

446 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 31 Dec 2024 Within a few years SpaceX direct-to-cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to more satellites and better technology. Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 10 Dec 2024 Scott Alexander said, in a conditional aside, that he expects a singularity in the next few decades. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Amodei said that eyeballing the rate at which capabilities are increasing, which he called totally unscientific, does make him think 'we'll get there' by 2026 or 2027, and he added that lots of things could derail it. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 In the near term, and maybe even in the medium term of 2, 3 or 4 years, Amodei expects humans to keep a huge role and programming as a job not to change, although the nature of programming will change, with less line-by-line writing and more macroscopic work. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Amodei said that probably by 2027 there will be ambitions to build hundred-billion-dollar compute clusters, and that he thinks this will actually happen. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Powerful AI's transformative deployment in the world will take more likely five or 10 years than 50 or 100 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Over the next year or two, even without better models, there would be enormous opportunity to boost productivity by catching mistakes and doing grunt work with current AI models. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Eyeballing the rate at which AI capabilities are increasing makes Amodei think "we'll get there" by 2026 or 2027, though he says there are still worlds where it does not happen in 100 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Within two to three years, whether or not super powerful AI exists, compute clusters will be large enough to deploy millions of AI model instances. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Within two to three years, compute clusters will be large enough to deploy millions of instances of AI models. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Within two to three years, the millions of deployable AI model instances will run faster than humans. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 7 Nov 2024 Utah could become a swing state by 2040. Nate Silver · Prediction · 7 Nov 2024 Other
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2024 By 2045 humans will expand their own intelligence a millionfold. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 18 Sep 2024 It will take Meta about another 10 years to fully work through the cycle before its brand recovers to where it might have been. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 The singularity will happen in 2045. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 If solar and wind energy keeps doubling every four years, all of our energy would come from those sources in about 10 years, and it will keep getting cheaper. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 In the 2030s we will be able to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide being created. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 AGI will arrive within five years, probably sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 Between 2029 and 2035, scientific progress will give back a full year of life expectancy per year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 Other global risks
Not yet due Steven Pinker Prediction 13 Jun 2024 Commonwealth Fusion Systems' scalable fusion designs will come on line within a decade of June 2024. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 13 Jun 2024 Technology
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 5 May 2024 The next major financial crisis will occur within a century, though timing is unknown. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 5 May 2024 Over the next century no company will be dramatically better than others in returns. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 5 May 2024 Berkshire's CEO succession is settled for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 4 May 2024 The business he described will still be around 100 years from now. It will not be the best growth business in the world in that period, but it will be essential. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett says Berkshire's CEO succession problem is solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 By 2026 to 2028, the compute needed for AI will reach levels the semiconductor industry struggles to supply. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 If a pause in AI development of one year were needed in 2027, it would be feasible. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 AI Safety Level ASL-3 capabilities may arrive this year or next (2024 or 2025), and ASL-4 between 2025 and 2028. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 Amodei said he thinks the cost of training AI models may reach $5 billion to $10 billion in 2025 to 2026. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction Apr 2024 AI models will be able to solve all US Math Olympiad problems within three to five years, as people told Thiel. Peter Thiel · Prediction · Apr 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Within five years AI coding ability will be as good as humans'; currently it is not quite as good. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 In five years one large language model will know everything any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Kurzweil said he thinks humanity will reach longevity escape velocity in five years, by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Within a few years AI will be able to emulate the intelligence any human being can have. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 By 2029 scientific progress will give people back a full year of life expectancy for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 After 2029, people will gain back more than a year of longevity per year, effectively going backwards in time regarding longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Kurzweil predicts that in five years (by 2029) one large language model will know everything that any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 By the end of this decade, possibly sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people find truly remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 He thinks the next decade will be really interesting for robots. He said the robotics industry has been waiting 10 to 20 years to emerge without really doing so, apart from pre-programmed behaviour. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 LeCun said he thinks that over the next few years there will be many AI systems with planning capability, and that their blueprint will be extremely different from autoregressive LLMs. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Building AI systems with world models, planning and hierarchical representations like the human brain will take at least a decade, probably much more. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said that DeepMind, started in 2010, was conceived as a 20-year project, which points to about 2030, and that he thinks it is on track. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said he would not be surprised if AGI-like systems existed within the next decade. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Regular weekly suborbital tourist flights by 2026 are doubtful. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Humanoid robots will not play any significant role for at least another 25 years from 2024. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Brooks said his estimate that electric vehicles would reach 30% of US car sales by 2027 is very much at risk, since reaching it from 7.2% in 2023 would need two more full doublings while manufacturers are slowing things down. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 26 Dec 2023 AI should be hugely deflationary over the next twenty-five years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 26 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 14 Dec 2023 Digital-first primary and chronic care overseen by human doctors at $5 per month will be possible for every US citizen within a few years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 14 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Sep 2023 Zuckerberg said he thinks that, maybe by the end of this decade, people could walk into a room and see as many holograms as physical objects. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Control of powerful AI models five years from now will involve substantial involvement of a government or assembly of government bodies. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 AI models that act like a generally well-educated human in an hour-long conversation could exist within two or three years of August 2023. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Amodei said that the trend from earlier models to state-of-the-art models shows every sign that, two or three years after August 2023, there will be a real problem. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous EBITDA and ROCE targets for 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous average ROCE target of 11-12% for 2020-2027, now expecting about 15% over 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted's gross investment for 2020-2027, previously expected at about DKK 350 billion, is trending higher at DKK 380 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted now expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow at a 15% CAGR over 2020-2027, versus the previous target of about 12%. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to reach its science-based targets of 98% carbon emissions reductions (scopes 1 and 2) in 2025 and net-zero for the full value chain in 2040. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Within five years AI may be able to make a short cartoony YouTube clip or a buggy app-style game on request, but not an Assassin's Creed-quality game. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He expected language-model agents that act on the internet (for example, answering emails or ordering food) to be ready within five years, though he said they might not reach the reliability needed, as with self-driving cars. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 2020 will have been a low point; things will not get that bad and violent again in the next five years (to 2028). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He does not expect an AI singularity before 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 His decision to devote more space to AI than to all non-AI topics combined will look prescient by 2028, even if his explicit predictions are wrong. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will not immediately revolutionize the economy, and he would be mildly surprised if it showed up as a visible break from trend in major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, productivity); the claim is assessed by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ethereum and Bitcoin will do fine by 2028 (Ethereum because stablecoins are built on its chain). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Altcoins will mostly not do fine by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He said he does not expect advances in genetics by 2028 to yield anything more interesting than one or two last-ditch treatments for rare diseases, "if that". Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Science and research methods
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI's revolutionary economic effects will show up eventually in macroeconomic indicators, but not by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 By 2028 there will be more of a movement to ban or restrict AI. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Other
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Within about five years, some competitor will probably have caught up with Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 The level of sales Brooks had predicted could plausibly be reached in one of 2026, 2027 or 2028. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 There will be human drivers on roads for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 In three years, the things being advanced, which the speaker says improve every month, will be quite exciting. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2045 humans will multiply their intelligence millions-fold by adding AI to their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2029 we should be able to overcome most significant health problems. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 2023 AI misuse risks such as biological or chemical weapons uplift might become real risks in 2025 or 2026. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 2023 Biosecurity
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Within a decade, maybe much less, AI's focus will shift from pure scaling of large language models to integrating them with other techniques. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If the major threats are not acted on within the next decade, the world will reach a point of no return. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There may be a global conflict in the next decade. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 13 Oct 2022 AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips and at least tens of billions of dollars, and is most likely to arrive in 2026-2027. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 By the end of the 2020s, cryptocurrency will be what all politics is about, as social media was in the 2010s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 In five or ten years people will care a great deal where their money is held and whether it can be frozen. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 By the end of the 2020s, governments will not be able to fund themselves without cryptocurrency. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Beyond the point reached around 2032, a timing he said depends on how diligent a person is, people will get back more than a year of longevity from scientific progress for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 It will probably take about four or five years before AI passing the Turing test becomes obvious and no longer a question. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil said he thinks molecular assemblers, which would let people build anything they want anywhere, will arrive more like the 2040s. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil says that saying "by the end of the decade" is conservative and that it could happen faster; the material does not state what the estimate refers to. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil said he thinks people will be given money so they can manage while they reconsider what kind of work they will be able to do. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 AI will go inside humans and make them much smarter than before. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 Reaching human-level AI will not need a massive new breakthrough beyond current neural nets with additional changes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 In the 2030s humans will begin to merge with AI, connecting their minds to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 By 2045 most human thinking will take place in the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 AI will probably pass the Turing test earlier than 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 Zuckerberg suggested that maybe five years from now, if they were doing the same conversation, AR glasses could let a hologram of him sit on the couch next to the interviewer. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
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Elon Musk

Open its page

Prediction Their own work or organisation

“Within a few years, @SpaceX direct to cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to increased satellite count and improved technology”

Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO, on X 31 December 2024 Post by @elonmusk on X, 2024-12-31 (X)

Within a few years SpaceX direct-to-cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to more satellites and better technology.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

"Within a few years" of Dec 2024 is a vague horizon that has not clearly ended by Nov 2026, so the outcome can't be judged yet.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Within a few years SpaceX direct-to-cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to more satellites and better technology.” (said 31 December 2024). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_9b655c156bd4, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9b655c156bd4

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.