Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 26 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Recreating and enhancing human bodies will be, and has been, an easier task than recreating human minds. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Responses at all levels to potentially large-scale lethal self-replicating entities will be vastly more serious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Routine college bioengineering labs will soon be able to create pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons, as more sophisticated labs already can. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Once a computer achieves human-level intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanobot-based brain scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Moore's Law will run out of steam during the second decade of the 21st century, after which a sixth computing paradigm will take over. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Abandoning broad areas of technology would push them underground, where development would continue without ethics and regulation. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanotechnology is the inevitable end result of the persistent trend toward miniaturization across all technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Humans will become vastly smarter as they merge with technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 The next primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid of biological and nonbiological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Billions of nanobots could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Technological progress will literally get out of human control. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Nanotech is potentially more dangerous than biotech because nanobots can be physically stronger and more intelligent than protein-based entities. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Once a species develops computing technology, within a couple of centuries its nonbiological intelligence explodes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobots will be introduced into the body without surgery, essentially by injecting or swallowing them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Total human biological thinking capacity of about 10^26 calculations per second will never appreciably change, apart from a small genetic-engineering increase. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Humanity will reverse-engineer the human brain to gain insights for building more intelligent machines. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Improvements in disk space and processing power price performance will let Amazon do more and better real-time personalization of its website. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological intelligence, growing at a double exponential rate, will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of the twenty-first century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the 21st century nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of biological humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Brain nanobots can all be directed to leave the body, so their use will be easily reversible. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological intelligence will ultimately dominate because it grows at a double exponential rate while biological intelligence is static. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Biological human thinking is stuck at 1026 (presumably 10^26) calculations per second for all human brains, and this figure will not appreciably change even with bioengineering changes to the human genome. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By 2099, intelligence from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than in 2001, mostly nonbiological. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 From a practical perspective, people will accept the claims of nonbiological intelligent machines in the twenty-first century that they are conscious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Burry said he fully expected the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio for members to decrease quite significantly as assets under management grew with new investors. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 The Fund will receive full value in the future for its shares in its largest hotel holding. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 If tubules multiplied neuron complexity a thousandfold, reaching human brain computational capacity would be delayed by only about 9 years under Kurzweil's model of computational growth. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological computing will overtake total human biological thinking capacity before 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Brain implants based on distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand human memories a trillionfold and vastly improve sensory, pattern recognition and cognitive abilities. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Expanding intelligence will overcome gravity and other cosmological forces and create the Universe it wants. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobot technology will be feasible within 30 years of 2001, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Jeff Bezos said that "we", in context Amazon.com, still believed that some 15% of retail commerce may ultimately move online. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Burry's investment principles, applied consistently, will continue to serve the Fund well despite future shocks. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 A rarely traded publicly traded real estate stock held by the Fund will recover and ultimately head much higher over time. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the speed of light, though this may not be the actual limit. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Humanity will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 According to Kurzweil's model, a civilization at Earth's level of radio transmission takes at most one to two centuries to become a SETI Type II civilization. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 The future performance of one of the Fund's largest positions will have no correlation with the general market or further terrorist attacks. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Intelligence will be more powerful than impersonal cosmological forces. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Physical-world retailers will continue to use technology to reduce costs but not to transform the customer experience. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Before the 22nd century begins, humanity will merge with its computational technology with no clear human-machine distinction. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Over the next year or two, and especially five years, the Fund's investment in this position has a very high probability of producing substantial gains. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the second half of the 21st century there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 If the price performance of bandwidth keeps doubling about every 9 months, Amazon.com will be able to use 60 times as much bandwidth per customer in 5 years while keeping its bandwidth cost per customer the same. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Most of his readers are likely to be alive to see the Singularity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality by positioning nanobots near interneuronal connections from the senses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Biological brains will be vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 As intelligence saturates available matter and energy, it turns dumb matter into smart matter. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 Response at all levels to potentially large-scale lethal self-replicating entities will be vastly more intense than to computer viruses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 In the years ahead there will be enormous gains in overcoming cancer and other diseases and in greatly extending human longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 It will eventually be possible to have nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities, replacing DNA, so the much safer Broadcast Architecture can be used. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 Abandoning broad areas of technology will only push them underground, where development continues unimpeded by ethics or regulation. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 The means will soon exist in a routine biotechnology laboratory to create a pathogen that could be more destructive to humans or other living organisms than an atomic bomb. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 If paradigm shifts keep doubling about every decade, technological progress in the 21st century will be equivalent to what the linear view would require on the order of 20,000 years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 1999 Companies that invest early in digital nervous systems to capture and analyze customer input will differentiate themselves from competitors. Bill Gates · Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 1999 The successful companies of the next decade (after 1999) will be those that use digital tools to reinvent the way they work. Bill Gates · Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 1999 Merchants who treat e-commerce as more than a digital cash register will do the best. Bill Gates · Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 21 Mar 1998 Through personalization, online commerce will in future accelerate the process of discovery for customers. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 21 Mar 1998 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 1998 Online bookselling and online commerce in general should prove to be a very large market, and it is likely that a number of companies will benefit significantly. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 1998 Economics and markets
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Andreessen said he thought a lot of companies were going to start taking advantage of "that"; the material does not say what "that" refers to. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Among other things, commercialization will guarantee that the Net will be there. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Some day it should be possible for everyone to publish on the Net as easily as using word processing. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Five or ten years is about the right timeframe to think about consumers shifting their commerce online, because that is about how long it takes for consumer habits to change on a broad scale. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 1995 People always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Bill Gates · Prediction · 1995 Technology
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Ray Kurzweil

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Prediction Philosophy, ethics and society

“recreating and enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library)

Recreating and enhancing human bodies will be, and has been, an easier task than recreating human minds.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Comparative difficulty of undefined tasks with no horizon is too vague to test.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Recreating and enhancing human bodies will be, and has been, an easier task than recreating human minds.” (said January 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_bb5afe734135, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bb5afe734135

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.