Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually favoring trendy assets, with sometimes dramatic reactions. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 U.S. blue chips and U.S. bonds will mostly be priced lower relative to fair value than the trendier newer asset classes. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 2007 The S&P 500 could easily finish 2008 with a negative return, dragging down crowded value-oriented investment funds. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Large future gains in Berkshire's non-insurance earnings will come only if it makes major, sensible acquisitions. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 An AI project will not succeed merely by implementing a five-layer model of intelligence like the human brain's. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett's 2007 federal and state income taxes will be exactly what they would have been had he not made his 2007 charitable contributions. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 A deliberately designed AI is likely to begin as a set of subsystems in a primitive, undeveloped state already designed to form a functioning supersystem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire is likely to continue earning significant overall profits from mispriced derivatives despite occasional losses. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The cumulative decisions made in close cases between violence and peace may determine the destiny of the postmodern world. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Yudkowsky conjectured that matching imagery against large concept sets will be one of the most computationally intensive subprocesses in AI, perhaps the most expensive subprocess. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Cautiously considering what a more foresightful and less accretive design for intelligence might look like, Yudkowsky suggested that in an AI the center of gravity of intelligence, the process humans observe through their internal narrative, would probably become the central supersystem of the mind, to an even greater degree than in humans. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 As U.S. trade problems worsen, the dollar is highly likely to weaken over time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The modern age will not be permanent and will ultimately give way to something very different. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 In the long run, power and prosperity may go to those who follow Locke's capitalist rules, leaving religious fanatics without the wealth and technology to threaten the nonreligious West. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's business performance will determine its stock price, and most of the time the stock will sell in a zone of reasonableness. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 One day all will be revealed, all injustices exposed, and perpetrators held to account. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Early-stage AIs will likely be less adept than humans at visualizing concepts only as far as needed, and so may need full visualizations where humans use abstract reasoning. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The postmodern world could differ from the modern world in a way that is much worse or much better. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 The distinction between sharp, fragile human-written code and smooth biological computation is unlikely to be erased by programmer effort or new programming languages. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's insurance operations will periodically have bad years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Executive compensation reform will occur only if the largest institutional shareholders demand a fresh look at the whole system. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Software-level parallelism, poorly handled by present-day languages, will likely be one of the greatest challenges in AI development. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett's thinking about the disposition of his Berkshire shares is very unlikely to change in a material way. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 The math of the 2-and-20 fee arrangement is certain to make investors poorer over time than they would have been without it. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters would find the annual "tribute" paid abroad so onerous that there would be a severe political backlash. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US housing market will have its biggest bust in decades. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Speculative housing demand will now disappear because prices are flattening and falling. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US national real home prices may fall 20 to 30 percent. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction Sep 2006 US home prices would fall at least 20% and housing starts and demand at least 50% in the worst housing recession since the Great Depression. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 10 Apr 2006 US public noise to scare Iran will not work, and the US might then feel it must attack to preserve credibility. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 10 Apr 2006 Iranians might regard a secret US signal as a trick and ignore it. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Burry expected that, in the worst case, his fund's mortgage short would fully amortize to nil value over the next three years, at an average annual cost of carry of roughly six percent of current assets under management. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Burry expected the mortgage pools shorted by the Scion funds to see maximum stress during the latter half of 2007. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Most of the subprime mortgage pools Scion shorted will likely see maximum foreclosures a little over two years into the life of the pool. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2006 The fall in US national housing prices in 2006 will not be a one-year blip; prices will keep falling beyond 2006. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2005 We may be lucky and succeed in developing defenses against killer flu viruses before they are needed. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2005 Kurzweil said he believes the future will evolve in a positive way as humanity remains diligent. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2005 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2005 Release of a highly communicable, deadly biological virus could kill tens of millions of people, with some estimates in the hundreds of millions. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil said it is conservative to project that within 30 decades (300 years) current computational capacities would be multiplied by a factor of 10^90, exceeding Seth Lloyd's estimate of 10^90 bits in the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Humans will be able to reverse-engineer the human brain because its complexity is manageable. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 When the event referred to happens again (apparently a threat from something that could be blasted "out of the sky"), human technology will be quite sufficient to deal with it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 25 years of 2002, humans will have the scanning data and neuron models to build a model of the principles of operation of the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil conjectured that the other dimensions Alan and Paul talked about may offer shortcuts for reaching other parts of the universe faster. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Our intelligence may be able to reach the whole universe (about 10^80 particles, ~10^90 bits per Seth Lloyd) without being limited by the speed of light. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Intelligence will completely saturate the earth and solar system sometime in the 22nd century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Humans will see a future cosmic impact coming and will deal with it, sending a probe to destroy the object. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The 21st century will see about 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, a thousand times the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light limit could be overcome, within 300 years human-origin intelligence would saturate the whole universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil predicted that, at a point he did not specify in the quoted passage, intelligence will have a profound effect on the cosmological destiny of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil said he thinks the SETI project will fail to find extraterrestrial intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The spread of our intelligence through the universe, which he describes as slow and governed by the speed of light, will begin within 200 years of 2002. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The power of intelligence will grow exponentially and ultimately be powerful enough to change the destiny of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light is a fundamental barrier with no wormhole shortcuts, the spread of human-originated intelligence through the universe will be slow, governed by the speed of light. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If shortcuts such as wormholes exist, supremely intelligent beings will find, deploy and master them to reach other parts of the universe faster. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 25 years of 2002, humans will reverse-engineer the brain and go on to develop superintelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If ways to circumvent the speed of light exist, intelligence will find and master them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 In the future perhaps only one part in a trillion of intelligence will be biological, infused with human-level intelligence that amplifies itself via non-biological knowledge sharing. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light is not a limit, within 300 years our intelligence would saturate the whole universe, making it supremely intelligent. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 In the 2020s non-biological computation will cross over and, in hardware terms, dominate biological computation quantitatively. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 200 years of 2002, our intelligence will nearly saturate the available matter and energy in and around the solar system, given current understanding of computation limits. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Future humanity-derived intelligence will be very intelligent and able to decide whether to continue expanding. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Because the rate of progress doubles every decade, the technical milestone under discussion will take only 25 calendar years from 2002 to reach. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 After saturating the solar system, intelligence will seek greater horizons and expand to the rest of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Under competitive conditions likely for a few years, NetJets' scale advantage will at best produce modest profits. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Trailer leasing is cyclical, but Berkshire should earn decent returns in it over time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 The few fixed-income strategies involving highly-liquid AAA securities that Buffett manages have reasonable prospects of continuing to produce good returns over the next year or two. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Over time, Berkshire's insuring of jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically it will bring a terrible year. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger believe American business will do fine over time, but think equity prices as of early 2002 point to only moderate returns for investors. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 In a close-to-worst-case terrorism scenario involving about $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it dramatically limits its terrorism risk assumption. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Other global risks
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's holdings, about 10% of Fruit of the Loom's senior debt, will probably return about 70% of face value. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ignoring terrorism exposure in insurance pricing could bankrupt the insurance industry. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Other global risks
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett predicted that Joe and Tad would make General Re a huge asset for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger predict MiTek will be a winner for all involved. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 If Berkshire stays active in junk bonds, it will have losses from time to time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects to see opportunities for complementary acquisitions in the future. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2002 Burry said that, absent a new asset bubble, 2001-era US common stock valuations appeared to promise future returns well below those still expected by the investing public. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2002 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 3 Jul 2001 The Scion Value Fund will generally fall less than the market in a bear market. Michael Burry · Prediction · 3 Jul 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's consumer electronics business will eventually become its largest business and should be its most profitable. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“Naturally the Fed and Fed equivalents overseas will move to contain the economic damage as the Fed did last time after the 2000 break.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author April 2007 The First Truly Global Bubble (It's Everywhere, In Everything) (GMO)

When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge at the bursting of the housing and credit bubble Grantham described, roughly 2007-2009. True: after the break, the Federal Reserve and central banks in other major economies (e.g. ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan) took substantial easing or support action aimed at containing economic damage, such as rate cuts, liquidity facilities or asset purchases, as the Fed did with its 2001-2003 rate cuts. Mostly true: the Fed did so clearly, but overseas action was delayed or limited for some central banks. Mixed: only the Fed, or only overseas central banks, acted meaningfully. Mostly false: action was minor or token. False: central banks did not ease, or they tightened, in response to the break.

Evidence

  1. [PDF] VI. Policy responses to the crisis- BIS 79th Annual Report - June 2009 Bank for International Settlements · June 2009
    “By the end of May 2009, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank had brought policy rates close to zero.”
  2. Part 3: Monetary Policy: Recent Developments and Outlook Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 21 July 2009
    “Over the second half of 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) eased the stance of monetary policy by decreasing its target for the federal funds rate from 2 percent to a range between 0 and 1/4 percent”
  3. Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation European Central Bank · 9 March 2009
    “Since October 2008, we have reduced key ECB interest rates by 275 basis points.”
  4. [PDF] VI. Policy responses to the crisis- BIS 79th Annual Report - June 2009 Bank for International Settlements · June 2009
    “Not all central banks had room to lower policy rates. A run on the currency forced the central banks of Hungary, Iceland and Russia to tighten policy in late 2008 despite declining inflation”

Reasoning

The Federal Reserve cut its federal funds target from 2 percent to a range of 0 to 1/4 percent in the second half of 2008 (E2). By May 2009 the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and several other central banks had also brought policy rates close to zero (E1), and the ECB had cut its key rates by 275 basis points since October 2008 (E3). Some smaller central banks (Hungary, Iceland, Russia) tightened under currency runs (E4), but the criteria refer to major economies, and those central banks eased substantially.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break.” (said April 2007). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cd526bbbce9c, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cd526bbbce9c

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.