Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The United States will go forward over time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US will get out of its sour sentiment toward Washington, though he is unsure how. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 When relative prices of quality stocks versus the rest of the market next cross fair value, the excess return for quality could be over 40 percentage points. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 On average, European countries will be better than the U.S. at rationing health costs. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Japan, with its social cohesion, should dig its way through the aging-related choices and agree to pay the inevitable high prices more easily than others. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Consumers' changed attitudes toward debt and saving will surely last for years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Grantham said his faith in an eventual decent P/E premium for emerging equities over developed equities, exceeding 15% and perhaps by a lot, remained intact. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 The biggest cost of global warming is likely to be the accumulated loss of biodiversity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Almost everywhere people will end up working into their late 60s until the baby-bust passes through the population profile, becoming less painful in about 40 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 GMO's seven-year forecast suggests a global equity portfolio can be built returning just over 6% a year plus inflation. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Global warming will be the most important investment issue for the foreseeable future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Grantham said it was fairly clear that a weak economy and declining or flat prices were the prospect for the immediate future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 With progress in human genome research, breathtakingly expensive ways to reduce very rare diseases, hard to ration or resist, will soon appear. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Technology
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 He says that a 25% probability for a route he described last quarter for the market and economy would now seem generous. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Some further decline in house prices is probably more than a 50/50 bet in the U.S., and nearly certain in the U.K. and Australia. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 The US, eurozone, UK and Japan, being heavily indebted, will need to print more and more money and will have sluggish growth rates. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 Money printing will offset the deflation coming from weak demand due to weak credit growth, rather than cause inflation. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 6 Apr 2010 Future generations of Americans will suffer terrible financial consequences from the bailouts and the extended bubble. Michael Burry · Prediction · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Natural ecosystems cannot adjust to rapid warming, so ecosystem collapses will occur. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2010 In the next decade, a major challenge of computer vision, machine learning and AI will be devising methods that learn good feature hierarchies from unlabeled and labeled data in an integrated fashion. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 If optimistic, the overall reduction from improvements may be a factor of three to perhaps six. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2010 The authors expected to see many new embedded vision systems based on ConvNets in the next few years. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Worsening climate will mean that in many years the crops of the world's poorest people will fail to grow. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 With a really great job on new vaccines, health care and reproductive health services, the projected world population of about nine billion could be lowered by perhaps 10% or 15%. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Geoengineering techniques could delay global heating by 20 or 30 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Climate-driven crop failures will lead to starvation, uncertainty and unrest among the poorest. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Global temperature will keep rising until CO2 emissions get near zero. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast has quality stocks returning 7 percentage points more than the S&P 500, or 9 points more than the non-quality remainder. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 All overpriced markets will eventually mean revert, leaving most institutions with withdrawal symptoms. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that the US market would drop below fair value, which he put at a 22% decline from the S&P 500 level of 1098 on October 19, 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 In October 2009, Grantham wrote that it still seemed a safe bet that seven lean years lay ahead. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 By failing to learn from the crisis, the US is probably condemning itself to another serious financial crisis in the not-too-distant future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO forecasts seven-year real returns below 1.25% a year for bonds other than emerging. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he expected developed markets to grow moderately less fast, at about 2.25%, for the next chunk of time, and to look pretty anemic compared with emerging countries growing at twice that rate. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he believed emerging market equities were well on the way to the 'emerging emerging bubble' he described about 18 months earlier, in his 1Q 2008 Quarterly Letter. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that before the end of 2010 the US market would fall painfully (which he defined as at least 15%) from its October 2009 levels. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Without the measure Grantham was discussing, which the surrounding text does not name, "we shall surely fail again." Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The US market will not need to fall below the February 2009 low of 666 in the coming decline. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 13 Apr 2009 The libertarian future of classic science fiction, as in Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other global risks
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 13 Apr 2009 Enough people will live on seasteads (settlements on the oceans). Peter Thiel · Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Banks will become utilities, run with the responsibility of a water company. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Banks will probably hold little risk on their balance sheets, with risks borne by individuals with capital using their own money. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Unless banks hold less risk and risks are borne by individuals with their own capital, financial cycles will keep getting deeper each time. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he did not think it plausible that Homo sapiens would continue indefinitely without a mind arising that exceeds the current upper bound on intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky suggested that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be by mistake rather than deliberately. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 Other global risks
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 It is more likely that Friendly AI is solvable but no one will solve it in time than that it is humanly impossible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An Artificial Intelligence might increase in intelligence extremely fast. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks Artificial Intelligence is the road we will end up taking into "that challenge", which the surrounding text describes as the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle and probably the single most dangerous risk we face. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 When technology first becomes capable of uploading, it will have overwhelmingly more computing power and probably far better cognitive science than building an AI requires. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he feared regulatory agencies would not approve human experiments, in the context of augmenting human intelligence through biology. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 A superintelligent AI whose goal system operates in an unforeseen fashion may actively resist human attempts to correct it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it will prove easier, in the end, to build a 747 from scratch than to scale up an existing bird or graft on jet engines, an analogy he used for building Artificial Intelligence rather than taking another road into the challenge of smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said that, with only three such contracts remaining in force, he did not expect further meaningful impact on the Funds' portfolios from this sort of trade. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 With molecular nanotechnology, an AI could potentially rewrite the solar system unopposed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 Other global risks
Mixed Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Human uploading and upgrading will very probably not be the ground on which humanity first confronts smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An AI might make a huge jump in intelligence after reaching some threshold of criticality. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An Artificial Intelligence could rewrite its code from scratch and change the underlying dynamics of optimization. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it is possible for fallible humans to succeed at building Friendly AI, but only if intelligence ceases to be a sacred mystery to us. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 There will not necessarily be distant advance warning before AI is created, so it cannot be relied upon. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 In Yudkowsky's opinion at the time, which he said did not rest on a precise calculation using a precisely confirmed theory, sharp jumps in intelligence are possible and likely, and constitute the dominant probability. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If biomass yields double, the land needed for US biofuel falls to 25 million acres. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he was convinced that green technologies can be made cheaper than oil, describing this as his goal while noting he may or may not be successful at it. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Wind power will never scale to more than 10, 15, maybe 20 percent of electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Biomass yields can increase as corn yields have, and biomass can be cultivated sustainably in a polyculture way. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed that, once the new fuel technologies are proven, oil companies will be willing and massive participants in this area. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If newer energy technologies are done poorly, there will be public backlash against them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If solar photovoltaics grew 10,000 percent, they would supply about 4 percent of worldwide electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 There will be a mix of biofuels in the marketplace. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Ethanol will be produced in a way that has a materially positive energy balance and reduces petroleum consumption and greenhouse gases. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 He did not believe clean coal would win in every area, because clean coal technologies would be so expensive that many renewables would come in cheaper. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Over time more people will be willing to pay more for clean energy, a tipping point will be reached, and legislation will then force people to pay more. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 With carbon pricing and capture, coal power would cost between 8 and 10 cents per kilowatt hour. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Around 2057, the world will probably have moved to all electric cars. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Institutional shift into expensive hedge fund vehicles may lower returns available to existing long-only managers with positive alpha. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The most extreme relative overpricing in coming years should be at the intersection of high-risk and exotic diversification drivers. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Global profit margins, currently far above average, will come down. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 For slow-moving managers who do not exit quickly by unloading their company, default will probably be common. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
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Warren Buffett

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Prediction Economics and markets

“What is certain is that the United States will go forward over time.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 23 September 2010 CNBC Transcript: Becky Quick speaks with Warren Buffett (CNBC)

The United States will go forward over time.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Too vague, with no horizon, to test.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “The United States will go forward over time.” (said 23 September 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d0eb650f83d5, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d0eb650f83d5

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.