Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The growth boost from fracking will peak at about 0.5%, fairly quickly, within a forecast running to 2030. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 Because drilling activity has peaked, fracking will help economic growth less in future than it has so far. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 If methane clathrates start entering the atmosphere, release might continue even if all industrial activity were stopped the next day. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 Grantham said he thinks "we" will pay a very, very high price. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Sep 2012 Over the next twenty years no one will mistake a robot for a person, but people will interact and collaborate with robots, which will become as common in daily life as search engines are today. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Sep 2012 Robots will understand tasks in terms of the objects, places and people involved rather than as a series of simple motions, and so will show simple forms of common sense. For example, if a person takes a dish from a robot that is carrying it to the dishwasher, the robot will stop heading to the dishwasher and go back to the dining table for the next dish. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Sep 2012 As a result of collaborative robots like Baxter, American manufacturers and workers will be more competitive on the global stage. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Sep 2012 Robots will become cheaper and more adaptive to their surroundings, and people will find it unsurprising to train a robot for a new task in a few minutes. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Sep 2012 Technology
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 15 Jun 2012 There is a compelling case that extraordinary or accelerated technological progress will very likely occur in the decades ahead. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 15 Jun 2012 Technology
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2012 Career risk and the resulting herding are likely to always dominate investing. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett predicts that over any extended period, the equity-type investment category he favours will be by far the safest of the three major investment categories. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he was confident that, over the century, the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he believes that over any extended period, investing in businesses, whether owned in their entirety or through sizable holdings of marketable stocks, will prove to be the runaway winner among the three investment categories he examined. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 9 Feb 2012 The destruction of investors' purchasing power by these instruments will forever recur. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 10 Nov 2011 Institutionalized violence that can be eliminated by the stroke of a pen, such as capital punishment, criminalization of homosexuality, callous treatment of farm animals and corporal punishment in schools, will continue to decline. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 10 Nov 2011 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Andreessen expected that over the next 10 years many more industries would be disrupted by software, with new world-beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 In Andreessen's view, health care and education are next up for fundamental software-based transformation. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 The trend toward hybrid and electric vehicles will accelerate the shift of cars to software control. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 If the new software companies perform as expected, they will become highly valuable cornerstone companies in the global economy, addressing markets far larger than tech has historically pursued. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved false Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 6 Jun 2011 If the business matched what KKR and the management team achieved at Dollar General, keeping the multiple the same as Dollar General's, investors would make a 70% profit versus the prior night's close. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar will return to 5-7% annual unit growth. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Fertilizer resources such as potash and potassium will become particularly precious. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If China stumbles and weather improves together, commodity markets will very probably break en masse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 World population will have risen from 1 billion to at least 8 billion, and possibly 11 billion, over the 1800 to about 2050 window. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If weather is friendly in the next year, grain will be in glut because farmers are planting every tillable acre. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 A constrained-resource world will see per capita affluence rise more slowly than otherwise and than in the past, leaving everyone but resource owners worse off. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If sun and rain come at the right time and place, there will be an absolute record crop. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Several GMO colleagues agree with Jim Chanos that China's structural imbalances will cause at least one wheel to come off its economy within the next 12 months. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 If bad China and better weather outcomes strike together, it will produce a second once-in-a-lifetime commodity event in three years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 There is a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of the future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 China's capital spending of about 50% of GDP cannot be sustained, and much of it is likely wasted. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 This is likely the beginning of the end of the rapid growth in population and wealth driven by the Hydrocarbon Revolution. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Raw material prices will rise and shortages will be common in a more resource-constrained world. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Almost all countries other than the U.S. will suffer lower growth from resource limits, but resource-rich countries will benefit relatively as terms of trade move in their favor. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Hubbert's revised estimate that global oil production would peak around 2016, give or take, could prove remarkably accurate. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 There is about an 80% chance that China stumbles or weather is better than expected, in which case commodity prices will decline a lot. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 There is at least a 1 in 4 chance that China stumbles economically in the next year or so. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2011 If China stumbles and weather is better than expected together, commodity prices will very probably break en masse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 If biofuel costs reach $75 a barrel, they will keep falling to $30 a barrel in real dollars. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Almost certainly, the winning battery technology in 15 years will be one that people today see as having a very low probability of working. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Own records only Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Khosla's lighting companies and air-conditioning companies will each need $50 million to break even. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Half a dozen technologies will make economic sense, some with subsidies and some without, and the speaker says the ones that work without subsidies will scale infinitely. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Ten years from now, energy innovation will explode because good PhD students are now going into these areas. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Field building and careers
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 People like the 23 people who were given a diploma that day, and big business, will take "us" out of "this", the situation the surrounding remarks discuss. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The United States will go forward over time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US will get out of its sour sentiment toward Washington, though he is unsure how. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 When relative prices of quality stocks versus the rest of the market next cross fair value, the excess return for quality could be over 40 percentage points. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 On average, European countries will be better than the U.S. at rationing health costs. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Japan, with its social cohesion, should dig its way through the aging-related choices and agree to pay the inevitable high prices more easily than others. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Consumers' changed attitudes toward debt and saving will surely last for years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Grantham said his faith in an eventual decent P/E premium for emerging equities over developed equities, exceeding 15% and perhaps by a lot, remained intact. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 The biggest cost of global warming is likely to be the accumulated loss of biodiversity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Almost everywhere people will end up working into their late 60s until the baby-bust passes through the population profile, becoming less painful in about 40 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 GMO's seven-year forecast suggests a global equity portfolio can be built returning just over 6% a year plus inflation. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Global warming will be the most important investment issue for the foreseeable future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Grantham said it was fairly clear that a weak economy and declining or flat prices were the prospect for the immediate future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 With progress in human genome research, breathtakingly expensive ways to reduce very rare diseases, hard to ration or resist, will soon appear. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Technology
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 He says that a 25% probability for a route he described last quarter for the market and economy would now seem generous. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Some further decline in house prices is probably more than a 50/50 bet in the U.S., and nearly certain in the U.K. and Australia. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 The US, eurozone, UK and Japan, being heavily indebted, will need to print more and more money and will have sluggish growth rates. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 Money printing will offset the deflation coming from weak demand due to weak credit growth, rather than cause inflation. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 6 Apr 2010 Future generations of Americans will suffer terrible financial consequences from the bailouts and the extended bubble. Michael Burry · Prediction · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Natural ecosystems cannot adjust to rapid warming, so ecosystem collapses will occur. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2010 In the next decade, a major challenge of computer vision, machine learning and AI will be devising methods that learn good feature hierarchies from unlabeled and labeled data in an integrated fashion. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 If optimistic, the overall reduction from improvements may be a factor of three to perhaps six. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2010 The authors expected to see many new embedded vision systems based on ConvNets in the next few years. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Worsening climate will mean that in many years the crops of the world's poorest people will fail to grow. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 With a really great job on new vaccines, health care and reproductive health services, the projected world population of about nine billion could be lowered by perhaps 10% or 15%. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Geoengineering techniques could delay global heating by 20 or 30 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Climate-driven crop failures will lead to starvation, uncertainty and unrest among the poorest. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2010 Global temperature will keep rising until CO2 emissions get near zero. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast has quality stocks returning 7 percentage points more than the S&P 500, or 9 points more than the non-quality remainder. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 All overpriced markets will eventually mean revert, leaving most institutions with withdrawal symptoms. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that the US market would drop below fair value, which he put at a 22% decline from the S&P 500 level of 1098 on October 19, 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 In October 2009, Grantham wrote that it still seemed a safe bet that seven lean years lay ahead. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 By failing to learn from the crisis, the US is probably condemning itself to another serious financial crisis in the not-too-distant future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO forecasts seven-year real returns below 1.25% a year for bonds other than emerging. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he expected developed markets to grow moderately less fast, at about 2.25%, for the next chunk of time, and to look pretty anemic compared with emerging countries growing at twice that rate. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he believed emerging market equities were well on the way to the 'emerging emerging bubble' he described about 18 months earlier, in his 1Q 2008 Quarterly Letter. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that before the end of 2010 the US market would fall painfully (which he defined as at least 15%) from its October 2009 levels. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Without the measure Grantham was discussing, which the surrounding text does not name, "we shall surely fail again." Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The US market will not need to fall below the February 2009 low of 666 in the coming decline. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 13 Apr 2009 The libertarian future of classic science fiction, as in Heinlein, will not happen before the second half of the 21st century. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other global risks
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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“It will peak out at about 0.5%, which is just huge, but it peaks fairly fast.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, keynote Q&A 3 December 2012 Long-Term Investing: An Optimal Strategy (Grantham keynote address) (Columbia Center on Governance & Sustainability)

The growth boost from fracking will peak at about 0.5%, fairly quickly, within a forecast running to 2030.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2030 is after 2026-10-29

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “The growth boost from fracking will peak at about 0.5%, fairly quickly, within a forecast running to 2030.” (said 3 December 2012). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_87400486edb7, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_87400486edb7

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.