Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 22 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei strongly suspects that details of individual neuron communication will be abstracted away in most interesting questions about computation and circuits. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei said he does not think governments will (or should) turn over their economic policy to an AI, even if it could do so; he also said he is somewhat skeptical that an AI could solve the socialist calculation problem. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Greatly improved embryo screening will likely make it possible to prevent most genetic disease. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 In the short term, comparative advantage will keep humans relevant and increase their productivity as AI advances. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 It is plausible that "AI finance ministers and central bankers" could replicate or exceed the "10% accomplishment" that the surrounding text credits to human economic planners whose policy choices helped countries catch up with the developed world. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Once AI is broadly effective and cheap, the current economic setup will no longer make sense and a broader societal conversation on organizing the economy will be needed. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI-enabled biological science may reduce the need for iteration in clinical trials by developing more accurate animal and cell models or simulations. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that diseases like PTSD, depression, schizophrenia and addiction can be figured out and very effectively treated. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 The triumph of liberal democracy and political stability is not guaranteed and perhaps not even likely. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 While AI is better at only 90% of a given job, the remaining 10% will make humans highly leveraged, raise compensation and create new complementary human jobs. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei said he is open to the perhaps absurd-sounding idea that 1000 years of progress could happen in 5-10 years, but very skeptical that 100 years of progress could happen in 1 year. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI-accelerated neuroscience is likely to vastly improve treatments for, or cure, most mental illness and expand cognitive and mental freedom. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Once human lifespan reaches 150, longevity 'escape velocity' may be reached so most people alive today could live as long as they want. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 In the long run AI will become so broadly effective and cheap that human comparative advantage will no longer keep the current economy sensible. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei thinks 5-10 years after powerful AI is a reasonable timeline for a good fraction (maybe 50%) of AI-driven health benefits to reach even the poorest countries in the world. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 There is good reason to think AI-enhanced research will give us the means to make mitigating climate change far less costly and disruptive. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Mind uploading is almost certainly possible in principle but likely will not be achieved within the 5-10 year window of powerful AI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI can likely do disease eradication and economic development tasks better than they are currently done. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Because cancer death rates have fallen about 2% per year for decades, humanity is on track to eliminate most cancer in the 21st century at the current pace of science. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 If 20% annual GDP growth were achieved in the developing world, sub-Saharan Africa would reach China's current per-capita GDP in 5-10 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Humans are likely to keep a relative or even absolute advantage over AI in the physical world for a significant time. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 8 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicts that within about 15 years (by around 2030) humans will put gateways to the cloud in their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 8 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that by 2030 human thinking will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Self-driving cars will use convolutional neural networks. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 A form of common sense could be acquired by machines through predictive unsupervised learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Deep Learning will be part of the solution for generalized intelligence. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Natural language understanding will be the next frontier for Deep Learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Deep Learning is part of the solution for machines representing relational and factual knowledge, but not the whole answer. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 AI hype could easily lead to another AI "winter cycle". Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 If humans are no longer the most-fit species, humans may go away. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 At some point someone will probably try to give a program the fitness function of survive and reproduce. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 SMI is probably still somewhat far away, especially the ability to build killer robots without human help. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 The progression of machine intelligence is a double exponential function. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 A more probable scenario is that SMI, indifferent to humans, wipes them out while pursuing some other goal. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Superhuman machine intelligence will very likely be developed at some point. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 It is very possible that creativity and what we think of as human intelligence are an emergent property of a small number of algorithms operating with a lot of compute power. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Machine intelligence progress may look slow and then suddenly go vertical, with things getting out of control quickly. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Human-written programs and computing power are improving exponentially, and self-improving software will improve itself exponentially. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Altman said he thinks other threats, such as an engineered virus with a long incubation period and a high mortality rate, are more certain to happen than SMI but unlikely to destroy every human in the way that SMI could. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Malaria will not be completely eradicated by 2030, but all tools needed to eradicate it will exist by then. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In 15 years the world will be poised to eradicate malaria as smallpox was and polio is being. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 More parents in poor countries will know their children aren't going to die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 As costs fall and incomes rise, more people will afford online education and the world will be well on its way to high-quality education for everyone. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online classes, now often disconnected from career paths, will become linked to career requirements. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online education technology will advance even more over the next 15 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, lives of people in poor countries will improve more than anyone else's. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Software will never replace teachers. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Language-learning software will let students speak aloud and give feedback on pronunciation. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Advances in biology should dramatically shorten the time to analyse a pathogen and make fitting drugs and vaccines. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Before starting primary school, children will be able to use a parent's smartphone to learn numbers and letters. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Learning software will detect when a student struggles and adjust to their pace. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Bill Gates said "we think" the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Africa can achieve food security by 2030. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 A really good epidemic response system can be built. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the next 15 years digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years more innovations will reach the poor than ever before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Within 15 years, farming innovations will end the paradox of African farmers suffering malnutrition. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 With the right investments, African farm productivity can rise 50 percent for the continent overall. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Famine in Africa will strike less often, and African countries will lead the response when it does. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 A large epidemic would require hundreds of thousands of health workers. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 The world will make unprecedented progress in global health over the next 15 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 By 2030, 2 billion people without a bank account in 2015 will store money and make payments with their phones. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online education will open new opportunities for girls with the means and motivation to use it. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 As high-speed cell networks grow and smartphones become as cheap as voice-only phones, online education will flourish. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online courses will become a global asset available to anyone with a smartphone or tablet. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 The next epidemic might not be contained by luck as Ebola was. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Child deaths will fall by half, and more diseases will be eradicated than ever before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks robots will increasingly be part of the community of connected objects. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks that, in the coming decades, work will be a collaboration between robots and people rather than robots doing everything. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he did not think robots over the next fifty, or even a hundred, years would be able to do everything, and that people would see more and more collaboration with machines during their lifetimes. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 16 Dec 2014 Brooks said he thinks the future will be made of collaboration, speaking about factory work and an ageing factory workforce. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander said he already expects this post will be used as convenient material to fling at the Blue Tribe. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 30 Sep 2014 Social 'tribes' such as Blue and Red Tribe will turn out to be stronger categories than political affiliation. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Satya Nadella Prediction 10 Jul 2014 Technology spend as a total percentage of GDP will grow with the digitization of nearly everything in life and work. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 10 Jul 2014 There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 15 May 2014 Researchers will eventually figure out how to merge ConvNets and DeconvNets into a feed-forward plus feed-back system trainable supervised or unsupervised. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 15 May 2014 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 15 May 2014 Now or in the near future, most of the world's knowledge will be extracted by machines and reside in machines. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 15 May 2014 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 15 May 2014 As more data becomes available, machine learning methods will increasingly rely on learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 15 May 2014 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 15 May 2014 Natural language processing is the next frontier for deep learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 15 May 2014 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Bill Ackman Prediction 5 May 2014 Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 5 May 2014 Ackman said he and his firm did not think any investor of consequence in the world would invest in the new version of Fannie and Freddie, likely referring to the Crapo-Johnson bill. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 5 May 2014 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects FFO to adjusted net debt of around 25% in 2014, assuming the equity injection is completed. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 12 Mar 2013 Pinker suspects that the strange problem of consciousness, such as whether an upload of a brain would feel anything, will never be answered, since these puzzles may be artifacts of human intuition. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 12 Mar 2013 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 China will go from 50% capital spending to 30%, if lucky, smoothly over 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 There will be slow, steady progress, but Grantham does not think "we'll make it"; he did not say what "making it" would mean. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The US started drilling thousands of wells over the last five years, and will never drill as many wells in a year as it did in 2012. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
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Dario Amodei

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Prediction Science and research methods

“I strongly suspect the details of individual neuron communication will be abstracted away in most of the interesting questions about computation and circuits”

Dario Amodei, essay author 17 August 2015 Machines of Loving Grace (darioamodei.com)

Amodei strongly suspects that details of individual neuron communication will be abstracted away in most interesting questions about computation and circuits.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Vague prediction with no horizon and undefined 'most interesting questions'.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Amodei strongly suspects that details of individual neuron communication will be abstracted away in most interesting questions about computation and circuits.” (said 17 August 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_785c91dea044, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_785c91dea044

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.