Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Forestry should perform above aggregate portfolio averages and be less volatile than equities. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Farmland is likely to outperform most other assets. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Mineral resource stocks are unlikely to regain their losses but will probably outperform from current low prices, as after similar past crashes. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 After five years oil stock prospects will be more questionable, and beyond 10 years much worse. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction Jan 2016 Bill Ackman said Paul was ready to pursue his own venture and that he expected him to be a great success. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Cutbacks in oil exploration will almost guarantee another sharp oil price spike within two to four years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 On his suggested 20-year path, developed country equities will return 5.0% instead of GMO's current 5.7% normal assumption. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Investors are likely to get very low returns in the coming years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Implications for pension funds over the next 20 years will be similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls over 7 years, or moves sideways for 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Grantham suggested a 20-year path in which rates return two-thirds of the way to normal, so that T-bills would yield around 1.2-1.5% real again. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Three mean-reverting paths yield similar 20-year returns: 2.4% a year (7-year slump), 2.6% (2-year crash), 2.8% (20-year whimper). Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Any assumptions including a modest reduction in abnormally high corporate profits give a very disappointing 20-year return path. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Grantham proposed that discount rates returning two-thirds of the way to the old normal was more probable than either returning all the way or staying indefinitely at current levels, although he said both were possible. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 If wages rise and oil rebounds toward $100 a barrel by 2020, inflation could tick up, which has historically tended to lower P/Es. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Corporate returns will slowly drop back two-thirds of the way to their old normal over 20 years (model assumption). Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Given the constraints of Congress, the event, which comes with possibilities of tariff wars and political unease, would seem unlikely to cause long-lived effects, though this is not impossible. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 The Fed and central banks' practice of trying to influence the economy through lower rates is unlikely to go away entirely, even over 20 years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 London's financial business will be hurt by Brexit, long and hard. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 The case for partial regression of rates hinges on the possibility that the 1945-2005 post-war era will turn out to have been a golden era of global growth that will not be equaled again for at least a couple of decades. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Most UK corporations will lose easy access to the EU market because of Brexit. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Mean reversion in the US equity market will far more likely be slow and incomplete than a sudden bursting. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 2016 A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component. Elon Musk · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Grantham said his own estimate of a one-third chance that Brexit would not happen still looked good. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 China's economy is going to be "just fine". Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Equity risk premiums over bonds are about 3.5% to 4%. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 If interest rates rise faster than markets have priced in, asset markets will fall in value. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that most people would support embryo screening for severe or debilitating mental illness. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Powerful AI could be built as early as 2026, though it could take much longer. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei said he suspects AI-accelerated biology will greatly expand what is possible, with weight, physical appearance, reproduction and other biological processes becoming fully under people's control. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Most mental illness can probably be cured with AI-accelerated neuroscience. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei thinks AI will similarly accelerate the rate of neuroscience advances, so that the framework of '100 years of progress in 5-10 years' applies to neuroscience in the same way it does to biology. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 The rate of discovery of key biology and medicine technologies could be increased by 10x or more with many more talented, creative researchers. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Dario Amodei suspects that some new and stranger economic arrangement will be needed, one that no one today has done a good job of envisioning. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei said the cause of Alzheimer's seems like the type of problem that better measurement tools isolating biological effects could solve, and that he is bullish about AI's ability to solve it. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei suspects that improved mental health will ameliorate many other societal problems, including ones that seem political or economic. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei said it seems very likely that there is room for smarter-than-human AI systems to do a better job than humans at the epidemiological modeling used in disease eradication campaigns. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 The human economy may continue to make sense a little past the point where AI reaches a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter'. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 There is a good chance Alzheimer's can eventually be prevented with relatively simple interventions once what is going on is actually understood. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI could enable reductions of 95% or more in both cancer mortality and incidence. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that powerful AI could at least 10x the rate of these biological discoveries, giving the next 50-100 years of biological progress in 5-10 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei expects improvements in mental health, well-being and education to increase democracy, citing that all three are negatively correlated with support for authoritarian leaders. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 The basic development of AI technology and many, though not all, of its benefits seems inevitable unless the risks derail everything, and is fundamentally driven by powerful market forces. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei strongly suspects that details of individual neuron communication will be abstracted away in most interesting questions about computation and circuits. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei said he does not think governments will (or should) turn over their economic policy to an AI, even if it could do so; he also said he is somewhat skeptical that an AI could solve the socialist calculation problem. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Greatly improved embryo screening will likely make it possible to prevent most genetic disease. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 In the short term, comparative advantage will keep humans relevant and increase their productivity as AI advances. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 It is plausible that "AI finance ministers and central bankers" could replicate or exceed the "10% accomplishment" that the surrounding text credits to human economic planners whose policy choices helped countries catch up with the developed world. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Once AI is broadly effective and cheap, the current economic setup will no longer make sense and a broader societal conversation on organizing the economy will be needed. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI-enabled biological science may reduce the need for iteration in clinical trials by developing more accurate animal and cell models or simulations. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei guessed that diseases like PTSD, depression, schizophrenia and addiction can be figured out and very effectively treated. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 The triumph of liberal democracy and political stability is not guaranteed and perhaps not even likely. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 While AI is better at only 90% of a given job, the remaining 10% will make humans highly leveraged, raise compensation and create new complementary human jobs. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei said he is open to the perhaps absurd-sounding idea that 1000 years of progress could happen in 5-10 years, but very skeptical that 100 years of progress could happen in 1 year. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI-accelerated neuroscience is likely to vastly improve treatments for, or cure, most mental illness and expand cognitive and mental freedom. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Once human lifespan reaches 150, longevity 'escape velocity' may be reached so most people alive today could live as long as they want. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 In the long run AI will become so broadly effective and cheap that human comparative advantage will no longer keep the current economy sensible. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Amodei thinks 5-10 years after powerful AI is a reasonable timeline for a good fraction (maybe 50%) of AI-driven health benefits to reach even the poorest countries in the world. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 There is good reason to think AI-enhanced research will give us the means to make mitigating climate change far less costly and disruptive. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Mind uploading is almost certainly possible in principle but likely will not be achieved within the 5-10 year window of powerful AI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI can likely do disease eradication and economic development tasks better than they are currently done. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Because cancer death rates have fallen about 2% per year for decades, humanity is on track to eliminate most cancer in the 21st century at the current pace of science. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 If 20% annual GDP growth were achieved in the developing world, sub-Saharan Africa would reach China's current per-capita GDP in 5-10 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Humans are likely to keep a relative or even absolute advantage over AI in the physical world for a significant time. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 8 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicts that within about 15 years (by around 2030) humans will put gateways to the cloud in their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 8 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that by 2030 human thinking will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Self-driving cars will use convolutional neural networks. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 A form of common sense could be acquired by machines through predictive unsupervised learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Deep Learning will be part of the solution for generalized intelligence. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Natural language understanding will be the next frontier for Deep Learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Deep Learning is part of the solution for machines representing relational and factual knowledge, but not the whole answer. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 AI hype could easily lead to another AI "winter cycle". Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 If humans are no longer the most-fit species, humans may go away. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 At some point someone will probably try to give a program the fitness function of survive and reproduce. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 SMI is probably still somewhat far away, especially the ability to build killer robots without human help. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 The progression of machine intelligence is a double exponential function. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 A more probable scenario is that SMI, indifferent to humans, wipes them out while pursuing some other goal. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Superhuman machine intelligence will very likely be developed at some point. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 It is very possible that creativity and what we think of as human intelligence are an emergent property of a small number of algorithms operating with a lot of compute power. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Machine intelligence progress may look slow and then suddenly go vertical, with things getting out of control quickly. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Human-written programs and computing power are improving exponentially, and self-improving software will improve itself exponentially. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Altman said he thinks other threats, such as an engineered virus with a long incubation period and a high mortality rate, are more certain to happen than SMI but unlikely to destroy every human in the way that SMI could. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction Feb 2015 Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. Sam Altman · Prediction · Feb 2015 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Malaria will not be completely eradicated by 2030, but all tools needed to eradicate it will exist by then. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In 15 years the world will be poised to eradicate malaria as smallpox was and polio is being. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 More parents in poor countries will know their children aren't going to die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 As costs fall and incomes rise, more people will afford online education and the world will be well on its way to high-quality education for everyone. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online classes, now often disconnected from career paths, will become linked to career requirements. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Online education technology will advance even more over the next 15 years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, lives of people in poor countries will improve more than anyone else's. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Software will never replace teachers. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Technology
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Jeremy Grantham

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“Much as I would love as an environmentalist to have oil for transportation almost disappear in 10 years, it simply isn’t going to happen.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder January 2016 1Q 2016 GMO Quarterly Letter: Keeping the Faith (GMO via investmentofficer.nl)

Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

deadline 2026 is after 2026-10-29

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years.” (said January 2016). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_8c54ebd4d859, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8c54ebd4d859

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.