| Mostly true |
Ørsted | Prediction |
2017 |
With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever.
Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2017 |
Oil and resource prices appeared to have bottomed out in 2016 and seem likely to have favorable comparisons for a few quarters.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2017 |
Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
Worldwide regulatory approval of self-driving will require on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km) of driving data.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
Adding cars to a Tesla shared fleet will lower the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
Tesla believes the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport while increasing safety.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
The economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a non-self-driving car.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
With autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink buses and turn bus drivers into fleet managers.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
When regulators approve true self-driving, Tesla owners will be able to summon their Tesla from pretty much anywhere.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
A first-principles physics analysis suggests that a 5 to 10 fold improvement in automotive production is achievable by version 3 of Tesla's factory machine, on a roughly 2-year iteration cycle.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that UNSONG would get fewer hits than Slate Star Codex in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that the US would not get involved in any new major war with a death toll above 100 US soldiers in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other |
| Own records only |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander will score at or above the 95th percentile on next year's PRITE (psychiatry in-training exam).
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
No major war in Asia (over 100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and American deaths combined) over disputed islands will occur in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war).
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other |
| Resolved false |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other |
| Research failed |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander will not stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved false |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander will still be at his current job at the end of 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved false |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Greece would not announce in 2016 that it was leaving the euro.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
US unemployment will be lower at the end of 2016 than at the beginning.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Own records only |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Scott Alexander will attend at least one Solstice event in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Scott Alexander | Prediction |
25 Jan 2016 |
Nobody important will change their mind much about the EMDrive based on information found in 2016.
Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
U.S. fracking oil will soon run off, revealing rising costs of finding ever-diminishing new oil pools.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
The shift to alternative fuels (electric vehicles, storage, climate policy, carbon taxes) is likely to cause oil's final paradigm shift.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as discussed in Paris, will not be achieved.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
At current asset inflow rates, index funds will effectively control Corporate America and many foreign countries' corporations before long.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Grantham believes food faces long-term intractable problems that will threaten political stability around the world, deep into the future.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Other global risks |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
A quick or dramatic recovery in demand for metals is unlikely.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Forestry should perform above aggregate portfolio averages and be less volatile than equities.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Farmland is likely to outperform most other assets.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Mineral resource stocks are unlikely to regain their losses but will probably outperform from current low prices, as after similar past crashes.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
After five years oil stock prospects will be more questionable, and beyond 10 years much worse.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Bill Ackman | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Bill Ackman said Paul was ready to pursue his own venture and that he expected him to be a great success.
Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2016 |
Cutbacks in oil exploration will almost guarantee another sharp oil price spike within two to four years.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
On his suggested 20-year path, developed country equities will return 5.0% instead of GMO's current 5.7% normal assumption.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Investors are likely to get very low returns in the coming years.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Implications for pension funds over the next 20 years will be similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls over 7 years, or moves sideways for 20 years.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Grantham suggested a 20-year path in which rates return two-thirds of the way to normal, so that T-bills would yield around 1.2-1.5% real again.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Three mean-reverting paths yield similar 20-year returns: 2.4% a year (7-year slump), 2.6% (2-year crash), 2.8% (20-year whimper).
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Any assumptions including a modest reduction in abnormally high corporate profits give a very disappointing 20-year return path.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Grantham proposed that discount rates returning two-thirds of the way to the old normal was more probable than either returning all the way or staying indefinitely at current levels, although he said both were possible.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
If wages rise and oil rebounds toward $100 a barrel by 2020, inflation could tick up, which has historically tended to lower P/Es.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Corporate returns will slowly drop back two-thirds of the way to their old normal over 20 years (model assumption).
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Given the constraints of Congress, the event, which comes with possibilities of tariff wars and political unease, would seem unlikely to cause long-lived effects, though this is not impossible.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
The Fed and central banks' practice of trying to influence the economy through lower rates is unlikely to go away entirely, even over 20 years.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
London's financial business will be hurt by Brexit, long and hard.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
The case for partial regression of rates hinges on the possibility that the 1945-2005 post-war era will turn out to have been a golden era of global growth that will not be equaled again for at least a couple of decades.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Most UK corporations will lose easy access to the EU market because of Brexit.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Mean reversion in the US equity market will far more likely be slow and incomplete than a sudden bursting.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Elon Musk | Prediction |
2016 |
A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component.
Elon Musk · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
2016 |
Grantham said his own estimate of a one-third chance that Brexit would not happen still looked good.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
17 Sep 2015 |
China's economy is going to be "just fine".
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
17 Sep 2015 |
Equity risk premiums over bonds are about 3.5% to 4%.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
17 Sep 2015 |
If interest rates rise faster than markets have priced in, asset markets will fall in value.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
17 Sep 2015 |
Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Ray Dalio | Prediction |
17 Sep 2015 |
The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point.
Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei guessed that most people would support embryo screening for severe or debilitating mental illness.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Powerful AI could be built as early as 2026, though it could take much longer.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei said he suspects AI-accelerated biology will greatly expand what is possible, with weight, physical appearance, reproduction and other biological processes becoming fully under people's control.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Most mental illness can probably be cured with AI-accelerated neuroscience.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Other global risks |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei thinks AI will similarly accelerate the rate of neuroscience advances, so that the framework of '100 years of progress in 5-10 years' applies to neuroscience in the same way it does to biology.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
The rate of discovery of key biology and medicine technologies could be increased by 10x or more with many more talented, creative researchers.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Dario Amodei suspects that some new and stranger economic arrangement will be needed, one that no one today has done a good job of envisioning.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei said the cause of Alzheimer's seems like the type of problem that better measurement tools isolating biological effects could solve, and that he is bullish about AI's ability to solve it.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei suspects that improved mental health will ameliorate many other societal problems, including ones that seem political or economic.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei said it seems very likely that there is room for smarter-than-human AI systems to do a better job than humans at the epidemiological modeling used in disease eradication campaigns.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
The human economy may continue to make sense a little past the point where AI reaches a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter'.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
There is a good chance Alzheimer's can eventually be prevented with relatively simple interventions once what is going on is actually understood.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
AI could enable reductions of 95% or more in both cancer mortality and incidence.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei guessed that powerful AI could at least 10x the rate of these biological discoveries, giving the next 50-100 years of biological progress in 5-10 years.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Amodei expects improvements in mental health, well-being and education to increase democracy, citing that all three are negatively correlated with support for authoritarian leaders.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
The basic development of AI technology and many, though not all, of its benefits seems inevitable unless the risks derail everything, and is fundamentally driven by powerful market forces.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI timelines and forecasting |