Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 US economic growth is probably around 2.5% a year in the current environment. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Dalio expects a slow, increasing squeeze, while saying that current cash flows can support debts for the time being. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 AI will most likely be underestimated in the long term. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 People will still be in the loop worrying about physical wiring of robotics and AI systems for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Widespread deployment of self-driving cars will take decades, not years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Long before any evil super-intelligent machines arise, less intelligent and belligerent machines will appear first. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 A program smart enough to subvert human society to achieve human-set goals without understanding the problems it causes will never exist in the real world. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Real deployment of self-driving cars could come four, five or six decades after 1987. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Exponential growth in the number of users of social platforms such as Facebook or Twitter will eventually turn into an S-curve because the number of potential users is finite. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Because many of the non-self-driving cars bought today will likely still be on the road in 2040, this puts an inherent limit on how soon all cars will be self-driving. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 If super-intelligent machines are eventually built, their existence will not come as a sudden surprise; they will evolve gradually. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Some of large companies' marketing messages about their AI offerings may cause very bad blowback for them in the not too distant future. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Brooks said he thinks that mathematical provability is a vain hope, adding that we won't be able to prove very much at all about large AI systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 Solving biology might turn out to be an exponentially complicated combinatorial problem or be limited by data and experiment. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 A really powerful AI might be unable to understand macroeconomic systems due to data limits yet still be able to design a better one. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 Machines could probably make progress in biology pretty fast, though there is huge uncertainty. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 Amodei said he is optimistic that researchers will gain a better understanding of transparency inside neural nets. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 Solving resource constraints through AI will not by itself solve war. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 Other global risks
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 Pure rule-based systems will not work for building AGI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 Artificial general intelligence will eventually be developed. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 21 Jul 2017 There may be more than a 50% chance that, as AI gets closer to AGI, it becomes clear how to make it safe. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Nassim Taleb Prediction 10 Jul 2017 A book that is interesting today and would have been interesting 20 years ago will probably still be interesting 20 years from now. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 10 Jul 2017 A Broadway show that has run 300 days is likely to run about 300 additional days, 600 in total (Lindy effect). Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 17 Apr 2017 An established company in Day 2 might coast for decades, but eventual decline would still come. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 17 Apr 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 17 Apr 2017 Much of the impact of machine learning will be less visible, quietly improving core operations. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 17 Apr 2017 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 Future technology will let humanity meet the physical needs of all humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 15 Mar 2017 The merging of computers with human intelligence is already here in part and will accelerate. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2017 Kurzweil expressed optimism, which he said Dormehl shares, that we will be able to deploy AI as brain extenders to keep ahead of the economic curve of accelerating progress. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2017 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thought the US economy would be better off four years from February 2017, even though he disagreed with some specific policies. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The Dow will certainly approach 100,000 within the lifetime of the person addressed, requiring only that the American system keeps functioning much as it has. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are very high that any US administration ends up with the economy better four years later than at present. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that there would be another deal involving Kraft Heinz at some point, and said he did not know when. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Self-parking cars will take up much less room than human-parked cars, so there will be an economic incentive to develop garages where such cars are tightly packed. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 At some point every car will be level 5 autonomous and people will no longer be allowed to drive. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 No robot or perception system today, or in the foreseeable future, can determine the state of the world well enough to know which of Asimov's laws applies. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 The day when all cars are level 5 and manual driving is gone will not be soon, and flying cars will come even later. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Reasonable level 4 systems will be technically possible in the not too distant future, but social issues will keep their domains of operation rather restricted. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Brooks guessed that deaths involving driverless cars will never come close to the high numbers of deaths that society has accepted for human-driven cars. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Autonomous delivery vehicles may be deployed case by case in not too many years, but it will be a long time before they are close to universal as a means of delivery. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Autonomous trucks will convoy behind a single human-occupied truck in designated highway lanes, with humans required in each truck off the highway. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 4 autonomous cars will operate in limited geographic domains with no pedestrians or other human drivers. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 The public will push back against level 5 and widespread level 4 autonomy during trials and early deployments. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Moral dilemma questions for self-driving cars (trolley-problem type) will have no practical impact on any car or person for the foreseeable future. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Deployment of level 4 autonomy will be slower than technology enthusiasts expect, led by various special cases. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Early in the transition to driverless cars, wealthy owners will have a new way to alienate the rest of society. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Schools will push back against owners using self-driving cars to pick up children early, but people will still try it. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Arguing about these questions will not have any practical impact or lead to practical regulations about what can or cannot go into automobiles. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Ten autonomous-car deaths per year in the US may be deemed unacceptable even though it would be 34,990 fewer deaths. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 We will not have cars that can tell nuns from robbers, a point made right after saying that robot perception today and in the foreseeable future cannot work out the state of the world well enough. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 5 autonomy over large geographical areas is a long time away. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Before long, grocery store parking lots, especially in storms, will be filled with improperly parked self-driving cars waiting for their owners. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Society will delay adopting level 4 and 5 autonomy, at the cost of more lives lost, rather than accept many deaths caused by autonomous driving systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 12 Jan 2017 Level 4 autonomy may appear on some delivery vehicles in dense urban environments. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The subject gave an 80% probability that no country currently in the Euro or EU would announce a new plan to leave in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will take the job he is currently expecting to take. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would be involved in at least one published or accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would get at least one article published on a major site such as Huffington Post, Vox or New Statesman in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will attend the Bay Area Solstice in the coming year (2017). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There is an 80% chance that construction on the Mexican border wall, beyond existing barriers, will begin in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that by the end of 2017 SSC would have no co-bloggers with more than 5 posts. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will pass his Boards in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman said he expected that someday, when the history of YC is written, people will talk about its software as one of its secret weapons. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 The trend of the companies described keeping their data, computation and hiring advantages and buying promising startups is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Sam Altman said he expected YC's flagship program to significantly strengthen over the course of 2017 and beyond. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 1 Jan 2017 Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple and Microsoft will continue to do many things well, hold data and computation advantages, attract many top engineers, and aggressively buy promising startups. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham said that, unless there were substantial unexpected negatives, this did seem to make the odds of a major market decline in the near future quite low, adding "famous last words?". Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham suggests that this reason for lower demand for capital and lower real rates will probably take a few decades to fade away, not the usual seven-year average regression period for financial ratios. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 2017 Events now beginning under the Trump administration will be taught in history classes in a negative light. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 Other
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 A corporate tax reduction will raise corporate profits for quite a while above where they otherwise would have been. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction 2017 DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Changing the central bank policy of low rates is unlikely to be quick or easy, given 20 years of Fed support and adherents at the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham predicts that any effect of lower population growth rates on interest rates will take even longer than a few decades to fade. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 2017 Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 Other
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Three factors are moving in favor of US profit margins in 2017, including oil and resource prices, which appear to have bottomed out and seem likely to compare favorably, and a likely moderate cut in corporate tax rates. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham thinks interest rates lower than those before 1997 are likely to persist for years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Grantham says productivity would need unexpected good fortune to accelerate enough to push interest rates up in the near term. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
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Ray Dalio

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Prediction Economics and markets

“I still think we're probably in a 2 1/2% type of growth environment.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee 12 September 2017 CNBC: Andrew Ross Sorkin Interviews Raymond Dalio (CNBC)

US economic growth is probably around 2.5% a year in the current environment.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

'Probably around 2.5% in the current environment' has no defined horizon or period.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “US economic growth is probably around 2.5% a year in the current environment.” (said 12 September 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_9d8d8d49218c, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9d8d8d49218c

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.