Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

110 claims · page 2 of 2

110 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's site will have more community features where customers help other customers make purchase decisions. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Warren Buffett

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 2007 Berkshire Hathaway 2006 Letter to Shareholders (Berkshire Hathaway)

Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Test: the Buffalo News's profit margin (pretax earnings divided by revenues), or its pretax earnings where margins are not reported, over roughly the five years after 2006, as described in Berkshire's shareholder letters and annual reports or in credible press coverage. True: margins clearly declined from the 2006 level over that period. Mostly true: margins declined overall, with brief interruptions. Mixed: margins fell and then recovered to about the 2006 level. Mostly false: margins were roughly flat. False: margins rose.

Evidence

  1. Case 5 - Buffet Investment in Newspaper Scribd (uploaded case study; original author and publisher not identified on the page) · March 2014
    “Berkshire could not stop slumping profits at the News. In 2011, the paper earned a profit of only $9.3 million, the first time profit had fallen below $10 million in 25 years. During the 1980s, annual profit had averaged $55 million.”
  2. Case 5 - Buffet Investment in Newspaper Scribd (uploaded case study; original author and publisher not identified on the page) · March 2014
    “the managers of these newspapers will find a way to stay competitive and maintain reasonable margins, though below their historical level near 30%.”

Reasoning

E1, an uploaded case study, says the Buffalo News earned a profit of only $9.3 million in 2011, the first time in 25 years that profit had fallen below $10 million. That means 2011 profit was below the 2006 level, which fits the predicted slide in earnings. However, E1 gives no margin figures, does not say whether the profit was pretax, and does not describe the year-by-year path from 2006. It is also a single source whose author is not identified. E2 is only a commentator's forecast and does not measure the Buffalo News's margins.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.” (said 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_de16373e7a73, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_de16373e7a73

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.